Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group University of Washington December 2, 2004 CIG 5 Year Review Climate Science in the Public Interest The Center for Science in the Earth System Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Outreach

Decision Support and Outreach at CSES Decision support and outreach activities at CSES strive to support CSES efforts to increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change. Decision support activities are designed to facilitate the use of climate information in operations and planning. Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback to CSES on research needs, products, and services.

Decision-Support Tools: Climate Variability Seasonal climate outlook Long-lead (1 year) climate-based streamflow forecasts Six-month lead time reservoir forecasts tools (under development) Oregon Coastal Coho salmon survival forecasts Extreme weather risk forecasting Office of the Washington State Climatologist Designed to help with management on seasonal to interannual time scales. Main products and services:

Seasonal Climate Outlook CIG researchers evaluate global ENSO forecasts and PDO state for relevance to PNW temperature and precipitation conditions for the coming season. Outlook is reviewed and updated monthly as needed. Outlook available on CIG web site and the Washington State Climatologist web site Benefit: Outlook lets resource managers hedge risks based on historically observed responses to ENSO and PDO.

Long-Lead Experimental Streamflow Forecasts for the Columbia R. Basin An important factor in moving water managers towards incorporating climate info Experimental forecasts made 8-12 months in advance of traditional forecasts Forecast based on initial conditions, ENSO forecast, PDO state Benefit: Forecasts guide decisions about reservoir mgmt, hydro production, instream flow mgmt Climate Forecast Estimated Initial Conditions Forecast Ensemble Lead time = 12 months Warm ENSO Only

Currently developing 6 month streamflow and reservoir forecasts for municipal water supplies in Puget Sound using NCEP forecasts, ESP Product developed at the request of Puget Sound Water Supply Forum Benefit: Forecasts will help reservoir managers balance storage, instream flow requirements at critical time periods Municipal Reservoir Forecasts Forecast based on ESP NCEP-based forecast muniwaterfc.shtml

Oregon Coastal Coho Marine Survival Forecasts Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds Methodology unique in recognizing the impact of winter conditions on coho marine survival. Provides a pathway for incorporating 1 year lead time climate forecasts into seasonal harvest, allocation, and hatchery decisions Benefit: Forecasts available 6 to 8 months in advance of traditional forecast methods (jacks, plankton) Forecasted Jan- March 2005 SST Forecasted Return Rate for March (1 stand. dev. below mean) 2% (+/- 1%) (mean value) 1% (+/- 1%) (1 stand. dev. above mean) <1%

Experimental 7-14 day extreme weather event risk assessment forecasts available for North America. Forecasts include probabilities for:  Extreme warm/cold days,  Days with extremely high precip,  Heavy snowfall events Benefit: Aids extreme events management Extreme Weather Risk Forecasting High snow events are 2-4+ times more likely during negative PNA than positive PNA, depending on location

Reinstituted in 2003 in partnership with the Washington Department of Ecology Provides support to public and private entities through collection, interpretation, and dissemination of climate data, forecasts, and other information Staff includes Phil Mote (State Climatologist), CSES researcher and Outreach Specialist, and Robert Norheim (Assist. State Climatologist), CSES GIS Specialist. Office is housed at CSES. Benefit: Provides an additional avenue for supporting the use of climate information in resource management Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Decision-Support Tools: Climate Change Climate change impact scenarios Client-based research consultancies Climate change streamflow scenarios archive Technical planning assistance GIS mapping Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:

Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s Benefit: Scenarios allow managers to consider risks of climate change (i.e., “what if” scenarios). TemperaturePrecipitation 2020s AnnualOct-MarApr-Sept Low+ 0.9 °F+ 2 %-4% Mean+ 2.7 °F+ 8%+4% High+ 4.7 °F+ 18 %+14% 2040sAnnualOct-MarApr-Sept Low+ 2.7 °F-2%- 7% Mean+ 4.1 °F+9%+2 % High+ 5.8°F+22%+9% Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO 2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.

Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels Scenarios for April 1 Snowpack Current Climate -44%-58% “2020s” (+3°F)“2040s” (+4.5°F)

Client-based Research Consultancies City of Portland (2002) Tualatin River Basin (2004) Seattle Public Utilities (2004) Palmer, R.N. and M. Hahn, The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic Management Implications on the Bull Run System.

Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Columbia River Basin Climate-adjusted streamflow data for 2020s and 2040s available on web site for 90+ locations in the Columbia River Basin Benefit: Removes a barrier to climate impacts analysis. End user does not have to purchase, learn, and defend a new model to examine climate change impacts. Data can be used in existing planning models. Partners: Northwest Power and Conservation Council Idaho Dept of Water Resources US Bureau of Reclamation US Army Corps of Engineers

Mapping PNW Climate: GIS Tool GIS tool being developed to deliver sub-regionally based information on climate and climate impacts. Mapping past and future patterns of PNW climate, including future climate scenarios. Numerous data layers:  Elevation, hydrography (rivers/lakes), watershed boundaries, vegetation and land cover, soils, land ownership, political boundaries Benefit: Designed to aid planning efforts by providing information about the patterns of variability and change at a variety of spatial scales

Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include:  Workshops and meetings (4-5/year)  Presentations and briefings (75+/year)  One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds)  Work with the local media  Web site development and maintenance Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community Outreach

Meetings and Workshops Sector-specific meetings with technical resource staff and senior decision makers:  Climate Impacts on Salmon Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin ( )  Fall climate and water forecast meetings (WA/OR and ID)  Climate and water policy meetings (2001, 2002) 2005: expansion of salmon and coastal work

Information about climate variability and change needs to be translated for and delivered to the watershed level. CSES has:  Given numerous presentations to planning units and state staff  Developed language for use in planning CSES is working to:  Build relationships with state staff and local planning units  Develop GIS-based maps of watershed-scale impacts Technical Assistance for Watersheds WA State watershed planning issues affected by climate change (circled)

Climate change workshop for the press, Nov. 8, 2001 (to be repeated ~2005) Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97  Major Seattle PI special report on 11/13/03; 39 stories on web site Featured in KPLU (88.5 FM) climate change series, KZOK (102.5 FM) morning show Nate Mantua interviewed for 12/17/03 story on The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer Work with the Media

Redesigned in spring 2004 to better serve as a planning resource An integral component of CSES decision support and outreach efforts Includes information on:  PNW climate and climate impacts  Forecasts and planning tools  Meetings and workshops  CIG publications The New CIG Web Site The New CIG Web Site

Additional Directions for Decision Support and Outreach, Increased collaboration with resource managers and other stakeholders to (but not limited to):  More explicitly identify key climate-sensitive decisions and risk exposures that may benefit from new research, decision-support products  Investigate how improved climate forecasts can be applied to decisions affecting salmon and coastal aquatic communities CSES will continue to develop, maintain, and transition decision support products for PNW decision makers in Outreach is an important component of that effort. Proposed outreach activities include:

Additional Directions cont’d Develop an adaptation “handbook” for public agencies  Detailing the range of adaptive strategies to help agencies answer “how do we adapt to climate change?” Continue expanding, enhancing CSES web site  To increase the site’s role as a decision-support resource Expand outreach to coastal, salmon, forecast sectors  Using model from hydrology and water resource work to expand understanding and use of climate information GIS mapping, Live Access Server for PNW climate data Third international workshop on regional integrated assessment (2006)  Provides opportunity to both share and learn from other experiences in integrated assessment

In Summary CSES strives to help the region develop the capacity to adapt to climate variability and change via:  Basic and applied research  Development of decision-support tools  Outreach Decision support and outreach efforts have been instrumental in developing and maintaining productive working relationships with the stakeholder community Demand for CSES’s research and products continues to grow, and CSES will continue to respond to these demands.