1. Developing Climate Services for the Pacific Northwest: the Role of Education, Outreach and Partnerships
JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System
Climate Impacts Group
and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
March, 2004
Alan F. Hamlet and the Climate Impacts Group
Martyn Clark (UC Boulder, CIRES)

2. People in the Climate Impacts Group
PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions)
Principals:
Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems)
Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources)
Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics)
Philip W. Mote (state climatologist)
Lara Whitely Binder (education and outreach)
Richard Palmer (water resources management)
David L. Peterson (forests)
Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis)

3. Climate Impact Science
The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other
climate
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
SCIENCE
socio-
economic
systems
natural
resources

4. Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
El Niño Southern Oscillation
A history of the PDO
A history of ENSO
warm
warm
cool

5. Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets
Annual Flow at The Dalles
5 events
2 events

6. Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships Between Climate Forecasts and Natural Resources
Cool
Cool
Warm
Warm

7. Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales
red = observed, blue = reconstructed
Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia
River Flow and Drought Since Submitted to Journal of the American
Water Resources Association.

8. Construct Models and Analytical Tools
ColSim
Reservoir
Model
Construct Models and Analytical Tools
VIC
Hydrology Model

9. Construct Forecasting Systems
Ensemble
Streamflow
Forecast
ENSO
Climate
Forecast
PDO
Run Initialized
Hydrologic Model
Select Temperature and Precipitation Data
from Historic Record Associated with
Forecast Climate Category

10. Project Impacts Forwards in Time
VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent
for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios)
Current Climate
2020s
2040s
Snow Water Equivalent (mm)

11. Assess Forecast Skill, Error, Value
Oct
Nov
Jan ESP
Dec

12. Make Data Available to Users

13. Role of Education, Outreach, Partnerships

14. “We will build it, they will come!”
1995
Many people in the climate prediction and applications communities subscribed to a “Field of Dreams” model:
“We will build it, they will come!”

15. 1995-1996 Conclusion: “Field of Dreams” Model Likely to Fail:
Results from CIG Human Dimensions Research:
1) Stakeholders were generally unaware of existing climate forecasting products and services.
2) Those products and services they were aware of they did not use.
Conclusion:
“Field of Dreams” Model Likely to Fail:
Another Approach was Essential

16. Education Outreach Partnerships CIG Stakeholders Strategies
Continual networking to identify partnerships
Workshops & surveys provide means for initial contact
Capitalize on climate events
Long-term commitment
Demonstrate a long-term commitment and responsiveness (takes several years to develop interest and/or trust)
Key stakeholders
Federal: Bonneville Power Administration, Natural Resource Conservation Service, Army Corps of Engineers, Forest Service
Tribal: Columbia River Intertribal Fisheries Commission, Northwest Intertribal Fish Comm.
State: WA Depts of Ecology, Natural Resources, Fish & Wildlife; OR Dept of Lands (Coastal Mgmt), ID Dept of Water Resources
Local: Seattle Public Utilities (Water), Seattle City Light, Portland Water Bureau

17. CIG Annual Water Workshops

18. Progress Resulting from Education and Outreach from the CIG to the PNW Water Management Community
Familiarity with terminology and concepts associated with interpreting climate forecasts
Understanding of the fundamental relationships between climate variability and natural resources such as snowpack, streamflow, and associated risks of droughts and floods.
Understanding of risks and uncertainties associated with regional impacts of global warming.
Understanding of forecasting techniques incorporating climate forecasts and information
Understanding opportunities for water management applications

19. Progress Resulting from Education and Outreach from the Water Management Community to the CIG
Understanding of the spatial and temporal scales at which climate information and resource forecasts must be provided to be useful.
Understanding that climate and resource forecasts must function within a larger framework of management concerns.
Importance and role of institutional characteristics in the process of bringing forecast innovations to bear on actual resource management problems.
“Give us the raw data.” [transparent process]
Official products from authorized sources.

20. From Scientific Research to Operational
Climate Service Applications for Water Management
Track 1
Climate Forecasting Systems
Track 2
Hydrologic Forecasting Systems
and Water Management Applications
New Idea:
Climate is
Predictable
Track 3
Education and Outreach
Track 4
Technology Transfer
and Operational Design

21. Characteristics of “Early Adopters” of Climate Forecasts
Seattle Public Utilities (CIG) [S/I forecasts, climate change]
Portland Water Bureau (CIG) [climate change]
Strong incentives for effective management (particularly Seattle)
Small, centralized management agencies (autonomy)
Ability to make changes in management decision processes without incurring high costs
Willingness on the part of leadership to invest in innovations

22. Characteristics of “Early Adopters” of Climate Forecasts
Seattle City Light (3-Tier) [S/I forecasts]
Bonneville Power Administration (CIG) [S/I forecasts]
Strong incentives for improved management (very large economic benefits)
Relatively sophisticated capacity to incorporate probabilistic information, quantify risks, and manage outcomes successfully
Seattle City Light is much farther ahead in terms of having access to state of the art decision support tools
BPA has been constrained by outdated decision support tools, the size and complexity of the federal bureaucracy, and more complicated system constraints.

23. Some Examples of Successful Stakeholder Partnerships Outside the PNW
South Florida Water Management District [S/I forecasts]
IRI Partnerships [S/I forecasts]
CLIMAS Climate Outlook [S/I forecasts]
SE Climate Consortium
Colorado River Forecast Center (CDC, UC, CIRES) [S/I forecasts]

24. Elements of a Successful Research-Operations Partnership
Successful identification of important problems on which researchers and operational personnel can work collaboratively.
The Right People in the Right Places
Upper level people in the academic and operational communities willing to take the leadership role and to allocate resources to collaborative projects.
Individuals within the research community with appropriate technical skills AND experience in finding creative solutions to operational problems in a collaborative manner.
Individuals within the operational agency with appropriate experience and technical skills who have authority and responsibility for testing and implementing research innovations in operational systems.
Strong institutional incentives in both the research and operational communities for sustained collaboration.
“Have fun at the pub.” Personal relationships and relationship building between the research and operational communities over time are critical for the success of the partnership.

25. Conclusions:
Human dimensions research on the capacity of existing agencies and water managers to use climate forecasts identified important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s strategy for education and outreach in the PNW.
Partnerships between RISAs, regional stakeholders and operational agencies has been a very productive approach to creating linkages between academia and management agencies, and in the process of developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications.
Ability to transfer forecasting technology from academia to stakeholders and forecasting agencies remains a significant barrier to the use of advanced forecasting systems in an operational context. Inter RISA partnerships may play an important role in solving these kinds of problems.