November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Introduction to CISM and Space Weather Dr. Ramon E. Lopez Physics and Space Sciences Florida Tech

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather The Sun has a magnetic field

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather The Magnetosphere When the solar wind encounters a magnetized body, it is slowed and deflected The resulting cavity in the solar wind controlled by the body’s magnetic field is called a magnetosphere

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Simulations show how this happens The Earth’s undisturbed field is basically a dipole When the solar wind flows in from the left, the Earth’s field is deformed

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather The Magnetosphere

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather The Sun is can generate activity even at solar minimum. We saw this in late October of the Halloween Storms

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Killer Electrons Storms accelerate some particles to MeV energies Spacecraft can be lost when there is a high, sustained flux of energetic electrons, such as during the May 1998 storm

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Power grid effects Power transmission systems are vulnerable to induction driven currents

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Blackout! The March 1989 Magnetic Storm caused millions of dollars of damages as power systems failed

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Some Effects of the Halloween storms  2 damaged Japanese satellites (one lost)  Many other satellite anomalies  Small blackout in Sweden  Temporary loss of Mars Odyssey radiation instrument - possible lethal dose for astronauts on the way to (or on) Mars  Aurora in FL, GA, TX

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather The first space weather event - The great storm of August 1859 September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington was observing sunspots when “….two patches of intensely bright and white light broke out...” Magnetic perturbations and other effects of this great storm were recorded and published 2 years later Balfour Stewart wrote - “... it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.”

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Impact of the August 1859 storm  Aurora were reported at New Orleans, Galveston, Key West, and Havana  Telegraph operations in Europe and North America were severely impacted  In some cases, telegraphs worked better using GIC currents alone, without batteries  Elias Loomis collected and published reports of the storm in the Amer. J. of Sci.

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather MHD Magnetosphere Simulation oThe Lyon-Fedder-Mobary (LFM) code is a fully 3- D MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) simulation run with real solar wind input oMagnetosphere modeled via ideal MHD equations in a large (5x distance to Moon) simulation grid shaped like a cylinder oTo study the results me must employ visualization techniques, especially movies of the time evolution of the magnetosphere

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Predicting Space Weather We are at the point where physics-based models can reproduce actual events In the next decade we will be able to model the entire system, from the surface of the Sun to the upper atmosphere of the Earth This is the goal of the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling - CISM - a Science and Technology Center funded by the National Science Foundation Predictive models are a major goal of the National Space Weather Program

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather University of California Stanford University SAIC University of Colorado NCAR/HAO Florida Institute of Technology Rice University Alabama A&M University NCSA Boston University Dartmouth College CISM Institutions CCMC NRL NOAA/SEC Lockheed-Martin

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Coronal and Solar wind models are already coupled

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather This will drive computer models of the magnetosphere

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather InnerMagnetosphere Solar Corona Solar Corona Linker and Mikic Solar Wind Solar Wind Odstrcil and Pizzo Ionosphere TIMED GCM Active Regions SEP Ring Current Radiation Belts Geocorona and Exosphere Plasmasphere MI Coupling Magnetosphere Lyon, Fedder, and Mobarry

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather External Libraries Low Level Utilities Fields and Grids Layer Models: Superstructure Computational Framework: Constraints and Approaches Functional Requirements: Efficient data transfer between codes, Data Translation (physics) and interpolation (grid) between codes, Controlled execution of asynchronously running codes. Science Requirements: Couple existing codes with truly minimal code modification, Data sharing between codes with different physical models and grid structures. RCMGlobal ITM Hierarchical Structure - Codes become subroutines Asynchronous Structure - Codes run independently, mediated by Couplers and controlled through data channels Model Coupler

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Sun Earth Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Wang-Sheeley Model modified by Arge Solar Wind Velocity CISM Energetic Electron Models, dB/dt Model, and Ap model Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather National Space Weather Program Components

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations DoDSEC Rapid Prototyping Centers Verification Documentation CCMC Model Access Validation Metrics Model Flow Space Weather Model Development Communication Targeted Space Weather Research NSF/AF/ONR Living With a Star NASA Multi-University Research Initiatives AF/ONR Core Space Science Research Space Weather Research Community Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling NSF

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Atmospheric & Ionospheric Coupling Precipitation And Loss Seed Population Solar Wind Drivers Solar Source Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.) Continuous data from ACE Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.) Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE Continuous coverage - SNOE and TIMED SOHO RHESSI ACECLUSTER SAMPEX TIMED SNOE POLAR Studying the Solar-Terrestrial Chain

November 2, 2005 CISM and Space Weather Rest of the day Discuss space weather effects and space policy Learn more about CISM code infrastructure and visualization tools (CISM-DX) Engage in interactive exercise with model products Discuss future capabilities