1 Are educational standards rising? Robert Coe Durham Education Conference 20 April 2010

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4 Adjustment for slipping thresholds Tymms & Coe, 2008

5 GCSE grade slippage

6 Grade slippage at A level

7 Has the standard been maintained? “Over 20 or 30 years, I don't think there is any doubt whatsoever that absolute A-level standards have fallen. They have edged south, continuously over a long period of time.” (Peter Williams, 2007) “There is no evidence that exam standards have been lowered. … Results are getting better because teaching and learning are getting better too” (David Miliband, 2003)

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9 Maths performance from Hodgen et al, 2009

10 The argument Overall, genuine systemic improvement in performance is modest or non-existent There are plenty of unqualified claims made about school improvement by particular schools or programmes If they are true, how come the overall standard has not risen?

11 How to produce ‘school improvement’ (1) Wait for a bad year and/or choose a bad school to start with. Take on any initiative, and ask everyone who put effort into it whether they feel it worked Define ‘improvement’ in terms of perceptions and ratings of teachers

12 How to produce ‘school improvement’ (2) Conduct some kind of evaluation, but don’t let the design be too good If any improvement occurs in any aspect of performance, focus attention on that rather than on any areas that have not improved or got worse Put some effort into marketing and presentation of the school in order to recruit better students

13 What should we really do? Monitor standards properly Feedback and incentives only for real improvement Implement ‘policy’ initiatives if rigorously evaluated to be effective Allow local initiatives, with proper evaluation and monitoring (‘reforms as experiments’)