COMESEP: Forecasting the Space Weather Impact Norma Crosby 1, Astrid Veronig 2, Eva Robbrecht 3, Bojan Vrsnak 4, Susanne Vennerstrøm 5, Olga Malandraki 6, Silvia Dalla 7 ; Charlie Farrugia 8 1 Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM 2 University of Graz, AUSTRIA 3 Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM 4 Hvar Observatory, CROATIA 5 Technical University of Denmark, DENMARK 6 National Observatory of Athens, GREECE 7 University of Central Lancashire, UNITED KINGDOM 8 The University of New Hampshire, UNITED STATES Seventh European Space Weather Week,15-19 Nov. 2010, Brugge, Belgium

Introduction Project Full Title: COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact Project Acronym: COMESEP Eight Team Members: 6 EU, 1 Associated Country, 1 High-Income Country Solar Energetic Particles [SEP] Teams: Institut d’Aeronomie Spatiale de Belgique, Belgium National Observatory of Athens, Greece University of Central Lancashire, United Kingdom Coronal Mass Ejections [CME] Teams: Universitaet Graz, Austria Koninklijke Sterrenwacht van België, Belgium Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Croatia Technical University of Denmark, Denmark The University of North Hampshire, United States

Four External Collaborators: (1 India, 2 USA, 1 Croatia) Associate Professor Dr. Nandita Srivastava, Udaipur Solar Observatory Dr. Michael Hesse, Director of the “Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)” at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, U.S.A. Dr. Dusan Odstrcil, George Mason University, Fairfax – NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, U.S.A. Assistant Prof. Dr. Giuliana Verbanac, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Croatia. Type of Funding Scheme: Collaborative Project Work Programme Topics Addressed: SPA Security of space assets from space weather events Current Status: In Final Negotiations, start-date estimate 1st quarter 2011

An Overview 1. The COMESEP Project will combine basic research on space weather events with the development of a European space weather alert system. 2. Scientific results obtained in the COMESEP Project will be used for optimising detection and forecasting methods 3. The derived SEP and ICME forecast tools will be linked with real- time automated detection of CMEs as they appear when observed at the Sun. 4. Individual detection tools and models will be integrated into an automated “start-to-end-service” system. 5. SEP radiation storm and magnetic storm alerts will be disseminated to the European space weather community.

RTD Work-Packages [1.] BASIC SCIENCE WP2: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS Enhance the understanding of the 3D kinematics and interplanetary propagation of ICMEs. Test and compare analytical and numerical ICME propagation models. Investigate the evolution of the ICME magnetic structure. WP3: SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLES Enhance our understanding of the source of SEP events and acceleration processes, as well as SEP propagation. Advance SEP modelling to include CME propagation effects, cross-field diffusion and heavy ions. WP4: SPACE WEATHER IMPACT Identify the key parameters of solar events that define the space weather impact. Quantify the impact of the various observables that could be used for prediction.

[2.] MODEL OPTIMISATION WP5: DEVELOPMENT OF FORECASTING METHODS Optimise models describing the propagation of ICMEs and SEPs for space weather forecasting. Implement an automated ICME detection system. Test different solar wind models to optimise the information on the background solar wind parameters. Link the CME detection system and solar wind modelling with the ICME and SEP forecasting tools so that key parameters from the former are included in the tools [3.] ALERT SYSTEM WP6: SPACE WEATHER ALERT SYSTEM Establish an operational European Space Weather Alert system to forecast SEP radiation storms and magnetic storms. Go beyond individual detection tools and models, by integrating their outputs into an automated start-to-end-service system. Disseminate the alerts and forecasts to the space weather vulnerable industries and other users using existing media on European and national level thereby complementing the ESA SSA space weather observational programme.

In Summary The COMESEP European Space Weather Alert system will provide Space Weather stakeholders with the following services: Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm forecasts based on the automated detection of solar activity and modelling of the evolution of the ICME and energetic particles. Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm alerts based on the COMESEP definition of risk.