What is the future for SOF in the Arctic? Nick Daugherty (USA) Jesper Vesterby (DNK) Patrick van Rooij (NLD)

Agenda International perspectives Research method Findings Conclusions Recommendations The statements and findings contained in this study are those of the authors and do not represent the country from which they come. All of the information in this brief is UNCLASSIFIED 2

International Perspectives Denmark (DE) Member of the Arctic 5 (Greenland), EU, NATO, UN (UNCLOS) Military size: +/- 25,000. Bases in Denmark, Greenland Extensive maritime and aviation experience in the Arctic Author: Aviation background Netherlands (NE) Observer status in the Arctic Council, EU, NATO,UN (UNCLOS) Military size: +/- 47,000 Extensive experience in maritime and cold weather operations Author: Marine/SOF background United States (US) Member of the A5, NATO,UN (not ratified UNCLOS) Military size: +/- 1,300,000. Bases in Europe, Alaska, US Limited select units with experience in Arctic operations Author: Special Forces background 3

Research Method Geophysical (studies, future weather) Geopolitical (strategies, governing challenges, stakeholders, current/potential conflict) DOTMLPF-I Analysis Vignettes based on geophysical/geopolitical Conclusions and Recommendations

Geophysical Landscape of the Arctic The climate in the Arctic is changing at a rapid rate annually and seasonally “Ice free” - < 1 M sq. km Arctic weather: –Unique and challenging –Atmospheric conditions are becoming increasingly difficult to operate under –Special training, equipment, and procedures

Geopolitical Landscape of the Arctic Arctic governance –Arctic Council –Illulisat Declaration –United Nations (UN): UNCLOS, UNCLCS, IMO –International Seabed Authority (ISA) Arctic Strategies Disputes and claims

What is ‘the problem’ in the Arctic?

Strategic Ramifications National interests may collide Spill-over effects of other regions of the world have significantly affected cooperation in the Arctic Arctic-specific alliances are beginning to emerge Increase in Arctic stakeholders, in general Mechanisms for handling geopolitical issues are not evolving as fast as the geophysical landscape

DOTMLPF-I Analysis Arctic SOF capabilities have declined while the requirement for such continue to increase. Time Requirement Capability

Vignettes Vignette #1: Counter-proliferation Vignette #2: Hostage Rescue Operation Vignette #3: Maritime Counter-terrorism Vignette #4: Search and Rescue Vignette #5: Strategic Recon & Surveillance Vignette #6: Arctic Security Force Assistance

Vignette Analysis 11

Spectrum of Conflict: The Arctic Likelihood of happening Unlikely Likely SAR OGA INTEROPERATIONS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE COUNTER- PROLIFERATION HOSTAGE RESCUE OPERATIONS (POLITICAL SENSITIVITY) PeaceCrisis War DIRECT ACTION MILITARY ASSISTANCE SR

Universal Conclusions The Arctic is a region The Arctic environment demands specially trained military personnel and units Over time, the requirement for states to able to operate in the Arctic is increasing while the capability is decreasing Future operations in the Arctic will depend on Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) relationships The operational environment of the Arctic currently lacks infrastructure, satellite and communication coverage, and strategic mobility

Key Recommendations Current and/or future exercises should reflect the potential Arctic-specific challenges Networks, such as the Global SOF Network, should be empowered for solving Arctic challenges National SOF should participate regularly in Joint and International Arctic training exercises Unit commands and mission planners should transpose current problems of other littoral regions of the world onto the Arctic and prepare accordingly

Questions

Ocean and Air boundaries

United States Government Accountability Office, “Arctic Issues: Better Direction and Management of Voluntary Recommendations Could Enhance U.S. Arctic Council Participation,” (2014),

Arctic Portal: The Arctic Gateway, “Arctic Search and Rescue Agreeement,”

Arctic Sea Boundaries Not much is unclaimed;

Arctic region split between EUCOM and NORTHCOM

What is happening in the Arctic cause/effect?