Modeling Overview IWMM technical team July 28, 2011

SHC Process at Several Linked Scales

Flyway Scale: Prioritization Local Scale: Management Regional (administrative) scale: Linking prioritization and management

Regional / Flyway Objectives Model Regional Actions Local Mgmt Objectives Model Local Actions Uncertainty Predict Observe Local Mgmt Regional / Flyway

Flyway to Region How is the flyway model used to inform regional guidance to local scale? Flyway Model analysis provides prioritization: – Relative Contribution of locale to flyway “fitness” for each guild – Answers: How important is habitat quality at a specific location for the entire migratory path?

Region to Local How does Region use flyway model output to guide local management decisions? Regional Allocation routine answers: – What guild(s) should refuge be managing for given the landscape and location in the migratory flyway?

Local Scale How does local scale incorporate regional output to make efficient decisions? Local SDM routine determines: – Optimal management action chosen from a discrete menu to maximize objective function given expected habitat response to each action

IWMM Process Flowchart GIS AnalysisFlyway Model Local Scale Model Monitoring Data Regional Allocation Model

GIS Analysis Create three layers at finest res (e.g. 30 meter) 1.Roosting habitat layer 2.Forage quality layer 3.Disturbance layer Layers are integrated to create a summary at node scale (e.g. 20 mile) Node Quality Roosting Chronic Disturbance Forage

Integrate GIS layers Atlantic Flyway – 30mAtlantic Flyway - Node

Flyway Model Inputs – GIS maps of available kcals, disturbance, daily gain – Bird energetic parameters (flight cost, flight speed,…) – Wintering and breeding sites to determine where birds “start” and “end”

Trajectory of Flock

Regional Model Prioritization – Which guilds should each area (e.g. refuge) manage for? – By guild, what locations are most important? – What changes can be expected? Protection Acquisition Habitat loss?

Linking Flyway to Regional Allocation Nodes Refuge Management Effort Determining management contribution 1.Virtually improve habitat quality (e.g. add kilocalories) at each site 2.Re-run flyway model 3.Compare overall flyway fitness before and after management 4.Identify sites with biggest gains 5.Repeat with other guilds

Determining management contribution 1.Virtually improve habitat quality (e.g. add kilocalories) at each site 2.Re-run flyway model 3.Compare overall flyway fitness before and after management 4.Identify sites with biggest gains 5.Repeat with other guilds

Regional Allocation Model This information is passed to local scale model G1 means guild 1 (e.g. dabblers) Refuge NameNodeIDObjective ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge336Neither ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge337G1 refuge Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge592G1 refuge Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge593Neither Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge615G1 refuge Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge616G1 refuge Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge637G2 refuge

Objectives for Alligator River and Mattamuskeet NWR complexes Flyway and Regional models provide refuge specific guidance on objectives that take into flyway dynamics These objectives inform local decisions

Local Structured Decision Making More straightforward and is similar to many other local SDMs out there – Time scale: annual – State-and-transition model based on veg monitoring metrics Other data correlated? – Objectives are received from region what guilds are important

State Definitions STATE% veginterspersion 1<34%Low 2<34%medium 3<34%High %Low %Medium %High 7>66%Low 8>66%Medium 9>66%High ActionEffect on %vegEffect on interspersion Cost Do NothingNone Low Late season draw down Small probability of decreasingIncrease, decrease, or no change Medium Early season draw down Small probability of increasingIncrease, decrease, or no change High

Local Scale Results STATE% veginterspersionGuild 1 onlyGuild 2 onlyBoth Guilds 1<34%LowDo NothingEarly DD 2<34%mediumEarly DD 3<34%HighDo NothingEarly DDDo Nothing %LowEarly DD %MediumEarly DD Late DD %HighEarly DDDo Nothing 7>66%LowEarly DD 8>66%MediumDo NothingEarly DDLate DD 9>66%HighEarly DDLate DD

Local habitat monitoring

Linking Flyway and Region to local habitat monitoring

Next Steps Continue work to link models to monitoring data – Models are likely to be tweaked as protocols change Sensitivity analysis Include additional guilds (shorebirds) Work with decision-makers at: – Regional Scale (region, JVs, states) – Local Scale (refuge managers, etc)