From Price Spikes to Future Agricultures Steve Wiggins Overseas Development Institute

Food Price Spike 08/09 highlights 2 critical issues High levels of hunger & malnutrition in developing world 1,020M undernourished: 195M U5s stunted aggravated by price spike & current economic problems Future shocks & challenges for agriculture

Four Transitions facing Agriculture From oil & gas for energy & fertiliser to renewables – Cost of energy, N fertiliser set to rise From wasteful to sparing use of copious & free irrigation water – Water is getting scarcer From high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to neutral or even negative net emissions – Agriculture emits 17 to 32% of GHG, incl. land use change – Scope to lock C into soil, biomass

Transitions (con’d) From current to altered climates Hotter, more frequent extreme events, altered rainfall Raised sea levels, reduced & more variable river flows, changed incidence of pests & diseases Few sectors more affected than farming. Most projections see overall reduced yields to agriculture

Future Agricultures? More efficient & economical use of water & fertiliser – Better information technology and pricing will help; Timely agriculture: prompt response to more variable weather – Information technology can help Much reduced emissions through: – Better management of N fertiliser, manure – Less tillage – Drain rice paddies – Reduced stocks of ruminant livestock [?!] – Store C in soil and biomass What would farming look like with C taxes on food? NB: Climate-friendly = Pollute, Degrade Less

Local Production & Food Security Trade helps! Why? – Produce where water, fertiliser use most economical, emitting less GHG Not necessarily where consumers live – To cope with increased variability of harvests Transitions... – If not made, who suffers most?... – Most important for poor & small farmers... & – To reduce poverty & hunger