October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 1 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Dr. Peter H. Hildebrand Chief, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD 20771

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 2 Acknowledgements: The material presented herein remains in progress, and has been prepared by the NASA Earth Sciences Vision team over the past year. This team consists of representatives from all NASA Centers working on Earth sciences and has included: Peter Hildebrand, Warren Wiscombe, Mark Schoeberl, Bob Connerton NASA/GSFC Marty Mlynczak, NASA/LaRC Carol Raymond, Randall Friedl, Loren Lemmerman, JPL David Peterson, NASA/ARC Tim Miller, NASA/MSFC Rick Miller, SSC Mary Cleave, Jack Kaye, Waleed Abdalati, Lawrence Friedl, Shahid Habib, Eric Lindstrom Granville Paules, Greg Williams, NASA/HQ George Komar, Mariann Albjerg, Ed Torres NASA/ESTO, Plus scores of researchers at NASA Centers and at universities across the country Disclaimer: This is a report from an ad-hoc group; not a statement of Agency plans or policy Earth System Prediction: 2025

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 3 The Earth Science Vision (ESV) team was formed to develop a long range—10-25 year—plan for NASA Earth Sciences activities. –ESV Workgroups define highest priority science goals: –Evaluate the goals in the context of: Scientific importance Fit with the NASA mission Hand-off to sister agencies and the private sector Importance of applications in the context of human impact –Define long term NASA/Earth Science Enterprise goals Earth System Prediction: 2025

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October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 5 Long-term climate –decades to centuries Medium-term climate –seasons to years Severe weather –hurricane landfall, floods, draught, … Biosphere, ecosystems, human interactions –ecological forecasting, sustainability, … Solid earth, ice sheets and sea level –volcanism, sea level rise, … Earth System Prediction: 2025 ESV Science Theme Workgroups

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 6 science knowledge –predictability of monthly to seasonal climate (NAO, ENSO, etc.) new measurements –Calibration & continuity of measurements –Ocean mixed layer and thermo-haline circulation; ice sheet thickness; full hydrologic cycle new modeling requirements –Coupled ocean – atmosphere model; –10 km ocean and 25 km atmosphere resolution application and partnering –Prediction of seasonal shifts in weather –other agencies & nations, commercial application why NASA? –satellite technology, data assimilation algorithms relationship with priority ESE science questions –Climate predictability Earth System Prediction: 2025 Intra-seasonal predictability (Medium Term Climate)

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 7 science knowledge –forcing and predictability of severe tropical storms; –track and storm intensity new measurements –tropospheric winds, temperature and water vapor profiles, precipitation, SST & oceanic surface fluxes new modeling requirements –Coupled ocean/atmosphere model; 10 km ocean and atmosphere; nested grids; microphysics; surface fluxes application and partnering –human impact; water, pollution –International impacts, FEMA, disease control why NASA? –satellite technology development, data assimilation algorithms relationship with priority ESE science questions –Severe storms Earth System Prediction: 2025 Predictability of Tropical Storms (Extreme Weather)

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 8 science knowledge –forcing and predictability of sea level change new measurement requirements –land surface hydrology and topography, ice sheet thickness, snow pack, hydrologic mass distributions new modeling requirements –coupled hydrologic model, including InSAR, lidar, gravity application and partnering –human impact through shore changes –International impacts, FEMA, water resources, disease control why NASA? –satellite technology development, data assimilation algorithms relationship with priority ESE science questions –Climate, Earth interior circulations Earth System Prediction: 2025 Sea Level Change (Solid Earth)

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 9 science knowledge –understand the hydrologic cycle and linkage to climate –the implications for availability of freshwater new measurement requirements –land surface hydrology, ice sheet and snow pack water storage, hydrologic mass distributions new modeling requirements –coupled hydrologic model, including InSAR, lidar, gravity application and partnering –Enormous human impact –International impacts, FEMA, water resources, disease control why NASA? –satellite technology development, data assimilation algorithms relationship with priority ESE science questions –Hydrologic cycle Earth System Prediction: 2025 Water as a Global Resource (Long Term Climate)

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 10 science knowledge –understand the diverse ecosystems, biological-physical- chemical relationships, impact of climate change new measurements –High resolution hyperspectral measurements, salinity, mixed layer depth, nitrogen and other nutrients new modeling requirements –Bio-optical models, extreme resolution physical- chemical-biological production models application and partnering –Enormous human impact –International application, food resources, disease control why NASA? –satellite technology development, data assimilation algorithms relationship with priority ESE science questions –Ecosystem health, biodiversity Earth System Prediction: 2025 Ocean Ecosystems; the Littoral Zone (Biosphere and Ecosystems)

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 11 science knowledge –understand the terrestrial biosphere and relationship with humans and climate change new measurements –Biochemistry (hyperspectral), biomass & vegetation structure, soil type & moisture (hydrologic cycle), fire properties new modeling requirements –Ecophysiological modeling, carbon pools and cycle –Response of ecosystem to stress (rain, fire, climate) application and partnering –human impact; food & fiber; fuel source; carbon sink –Sustainability & carbon cycle/climate change why NASA? –satellite technology development, data assimilation algorithms relationship with priority ESE science questions –Carbon cycle Earth System Prediction: 2025 Terrestrial Ecosystems; the Carbon Cycle (Biosphere and Ecosystems)

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 12 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Water as a Global Resource -- Where is it?

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 13 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Water as a Global Resource -- Who owns it?

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 14 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Intra-seasonal Climate and Ecosystems

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 15 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Observational Technology Atmosphere –Profiles of winds, temperature and humidity –Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols Ocean –Mixed layer and deep ocean circulation Hydrologic cycle –Water storage in snow, ice, lakes and land –Water transport and P&E over land and ocean Ecosystems –Biomass & vegetation structure, soil type & moisture (hydrologic cycle), fire properties Solid Earth –satellite technology development, data assimilation algorithms Scales of measurement –Same as the physical-chemical-ecosystem process

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 16 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Computational Technology Atmosphere –Coupled ocean-atmosphere models with explicit physics –Data assimilation Ocean –Coupled ocean-atmosphere models with explicit physics –Data assimilation Hydrologic cycle –Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models with explicit physics, coupled hydrologic model –Data assimilation Ecosystems –extreme resolution physical-chemical-biological production models Solid Earth –data assimilation algorithms and physical models Scales of measurement –Same as the physical-chemical-ecosystem process Data communication & computational linkages will limit computational effectiveness

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 17 Earth System Prediction: 2025 Applications User-specific data delivery User-tailored data displays Highly facilitated data access Strong commercial role

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 18 Earth Fluid Systems; weather and climate Solid Earth; sea level, earthquakes Biosphere and Human Interactions Increased Knowledge, Technology, Application 2000 Time : Observation and Prediction of the Earth environment for Real Applications: OPERA EOS NPP 2010: Improved knowledge & modeling of: processes, interactions effects Earth System Prediction: 2025

User Community OPERA: Observation and Prediction of the Earth environment for Real Applications Advanced Sensors Sensor Web Information Synthesis Access to Knowledge Information Partners NOAA DOD FEMA USGS DHS Other Govt Commercial International

October 2, 2002 GOES User’s Conference 20 Earth System Prediction: 2025 O P E R A Observation and Prediction of the Earth environment for Real Applications distributed observational technology highly parallel processing distributed processing enormous memory multi-faceted I/O user-specific applications

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