Europe-Russia Energy Relations: Security in Diversity? Dr. Andrew Monaghan, Research Consultant, NATO Defence College

Introduction Russia in European thinking Russia as “the problem” Diversity as the answer? Conclusions European thinking reactive Russia often taken out of context strategically

Russia in European Thinking Russia is the gravitational focus for European thinking Evolution in thought –Politically unreliable Oct 2005, Jan 2006, Dec/Jan 2007 –Sustainability Gas deficit –Liberal/monopoly Bureaucratic improvement/political deterioration Energy security dilemma

Russia as “the problem” Energy “Superpower”? –Political idea without a strategy Unclear “national interests” Gazprom strategy ≠ Russian strategy –Incoherence & Competition Gazprom vs. Rosneft; Gazprom vs. State Shady “re-nationalisation” –Gas deficit Domestic consumption/foreign contracts

Responses Reactive Veto, ECT ratification, diversification NATO Veto, ECT –Cohesion of members –Negotiating against Russia’s “natural advantages”

Energy Insecurity Responses Diversify? –Already diverse – energy type, source, route –Complicates policy making & consensus To where? –Iran? Nigeria Energy Security Dilemma –Sources & Markets

Energy Insecurity Responses NATO –January 2006 (USA/Ukraine) –September 2006 Seminar –Riga Summit Strategic Concept Military security: NATO’s energy supply Shortage of other options in answer to perceived threat –EU & IEA not responsive & supportive enough –Bring in US diplomatic weight

NATO & energy security US & Turkey involvement Political links to the wider world: PfP & ICI, NRC –IPAP: Azerbaijan Military dimension –Infrastructure security –Naval protection –Civil Defence & emergency management

NATO & Energy Insecurity The “whole chain” BUT: Does not address the key issues: investment Military alliance involvement creates concerns abroad –Political dimension of energy security: confidence A global thematic rather than regional diplomatic role

Conclusions Energy security is a primarily POLITICAL issue – is enough resource base –Tension between existing and reliable resources Responses so far REACTIVE & undermining energy security –Key responses are domestic – efficiency & investment NATO has a global energy security role, albeit focused & explicitly addressed Consumer, Producer & Transit often the same; NATO understands “the chain”