1 Valerio Tramutoli 1,2 1 University of Basilicata, Potenza – Italy 2 Institute of Methodologies of Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo – Potenza – Italy On the possible origins of Pre-seismic TIR anomalies Valerio Tramutoli 1,2 1 University of Basilicata, Potenza – Italy 2 Institute of Methodologies of Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo – Potenza – Italy SCEC CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions Los Angeles 7-8 May 2013

2 Physical Models Anomalous TIR emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes preparation phases e.g. Freund ( J. Geodyn ) positive hole-type charge carriers in rocks, activated when rocks are subjected to high levels of stress

3 Physical Models Anomalous TIR emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes preparation phases e.g. LAIC ( Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling, Pulinets, 2009 )

4 SOURCE of CO2 and/or CH4 Increasing Surface Temperature Increasing R TIR SIGNAL VIS wind TIR Physical Models Local greenhouse effect ( Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli et al., 2001, 2005, 2013 )

Physical Models (before) day week month A year decade day week month year decade 0 under stress microcracks formation can increases degassing rate (TIR anomalies)

day week month A year decade day week month year decade 0 further stress increasing determines microcracks closure interrupting previous degassing increase (TIR anomalies disappearance) Physical Models (just before)

day week month A year decade day week month year decade 0 major rupture can determine new escaping ways and a new increase of degassing rate (TIR anomalies) Physical Models (immediately after) California MODIS 7 YEARS

8 Expected atmospheric spectral radiance excesses (BT in K) at ground in presence of different CO2 concentrations MODTRAN simulation, (Tramutoli et al., 2009) wavelengths [µm] TIR radiance excesse in BT units [K] CO2x20CO2x10CO2x5CO2x3CO2x2 Physical Models Local greenhouse effect ( Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli, 2005, Tramutoli, et al., 2012 )

9 MFG/MVIRI TIR BAND Physical Models Local greenhouse effect not direct CO2 emission !

10 Rapid (few hours) temperature increase! Adapted from Pfanz (2012)

11 Physical models: CO2 CO2 - lake CO2 - river

12 CO2 - lake CO2 - river Physical models: CO2 Bhuj-Gujarat (India), Ms= 7.9, 26 gennaio January January h January January June1996 (4 days before EQ)

13 more than 220 mud volcanoes, CH4 emission: ton/km2 per year (Etiope, 2003) Physical models: CH4 Mud Volcanoes in Azerbaijan as controled sources of methane STREGEOS Panhai, Aliev, Guliev, Martinelli at Mefite, August 2006 NATO PROGRAMME SECURITY THROUGH SCIENCE

14 No data (clouds) RETIRA ≥ 3 RETIRA ≥ 2 RETIRA ≥ /5/95 23/5/95 Bozdagh volcano eruption May 1995 Physical models: known sources of CH4 21st May, 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M W = 6.9):

January /5/95 Physical models CO2 CH4 H2Ovap CH4 Mudvolcano Earth quake Clouds

16 Seismological observation (Vp/Vs) (Lucente et al, Geology, 2010) 01 April :57:47 GTM 31 March :14:56 GTM 30 March :10:00 GTM 31 March :57:31 GMT 30 March :22:57 GMT 01 April :46:49 GMT 30 March :00:00 GMT 31 March :00:00 GMT 01 April :00:00 GMT SEVIRI MODIS AVHRR TIR anomalies Independent observations at the time of Abruzzo April 6 th 2009 EQ 16 Vp/Vs observations have been justified by a progressive emptying of a huge gas reservoir triggered by the event of March 31 st. Such an hypothesis perfectly fits with models correlating TIR anomalies with abrupt increasing of green- houses gases emissions.

Università degli Studi della Basilicata 17 Next Future Using of satellite instrumentations (like AIRS- EOS, SCIAMACHY-ENVISAT, IASI-MetOp) for directly retrieve greenhouse gases concentration over L ’ Aquila only months of April from 2003 to 2009

Università degli Studi della Basilicata 18 Measuring greenhouse gases from Space (AIRS, IASI, Shamachy, etc) 50 km 2 daily, multi daily and monthly means. Accuracy over the grid: 1-2 ppmv An example of an AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2 monthly mean map, July 2009.

Università degli Studi della Basilicata

Università degli Studi della Basilicata Thanks (in any case it is a long story...) Anaxagoras (appr BC.) Aristotle ( BC)  “pneuma”, a warm, dry gas escapes Straton of Lampsakos ( BC) Poseidonios ( BC) Pliny the Elder( AD) Seneca (55 BC-40 AD) Pausanias ( AD) Ammianus Marcellinus (second half of 4 th century AD) Albertus Magnus ( A.D.) Thomas Aquino ( A.D.) Konrad von Megenberg ( ) Leonardi da Vinci ( )  violently escaping air 2 millenia Aristotle The “pneuma” theory of escaping gas as “cause” of earthquakes (by courtesy of Helmut Tributsch)