TSUNAMI… “El Peligro Olvidado !” The Forgotten Danger ! The Forgotten Danger ! “Assessing ‘Risk-to-Life’ from Tsunamis in the Caribbean” “Assessing ‘Risk-to-Life’ from Tsunamis in the Caribbean” Japan Tsunami, Mar 11, 2011; Indian Ocean Tsunami, Dec. 26, 2004; Haitian Earthquake, Jan. 12, 2010 UNESCO IOC/SC-IOCARIBE XI Meeting May 18, 2011, Univ. of Miami, Key Biscayne, FL USA Bill Proenza, Regional Director, National Weather Service, Southern U.S.

Western U.S. Central U.S. Southern U.S. w/ 27% of NWS offices Eastern U.S. Alaska Region Pacific Region Hawaii & Guam National Weather Service has only six regions & largest CONUS regions in most of government. Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands 2

Japan Tsunami – March 11, 2011

Despite Infrequency, 168 Years of Deadly Caribbean Tsunamis Fatalities 1842 Haiti Venezuela Virgin Islands (U.S.) Panama Jamaica Puerto Rico Dominican Republic(1) Dominican Republic(2) Haiti 7 TOTAL Ref: Caribbean Tsunamis, A 500-Year History from by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (2003: ISBN ); Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120; PRSN on Haiti,2010

The Caribbean has many tsunami-genic sources, most of them short-fused (nearby)… Earthquakes Earthquakes (tectonic subduction zones & numerous faults) Landslides Landslides (continental shelves, PR trench, coastal slides Volcanoes Volcanoes (submarine & land) Tele-tsunamis Tele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)

The Caribbean Situation ! Last major deadly tsunami(s) was in 1946, at the Dominican Republic: 1865* deaths. Since 1946, tremendous post WW-II coastal population growth has occurred across the Caribbean along with explosive tourism. Therefore, if we use Caribbean’s historical tsunami deaths, it will greatly understate the current 21 st century potential loss of life! So, how do we assess our current potential loss of life from tsunamis? *Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis, A 500-Year History from by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN edition)

NWS Southern Region Assessing: Risk to Life * Risk (potential loss of life) = Hazard Frequency x Amount of Exposure x Mortality Rate (%) R = HF x AE x MR *Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

NWS Southern Region Applied to Caribbean tsunamis: Hazard Frequency: historical rate Exposure: current number of “beach dwellers” in harm’s way Mortality Rate: percent death rate *HAZARD FREQUENCY (history based) *EXPOSURE (people at the beach) *MORTALITY (2-meter fatality rate…a percent) TODAY’s RISK TO LIFE *Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

The risk to life from tsunamis has increased dramatically with coastal population increases and tourism growth. Here we see the port at Charlotte Amalie Bay, St. Thomas 20 Foot tsunami, November 17, 1867 Same bay in St. Thomas today with the lives of 25,000 tourists & residents at risk ! 30 people lost their lives on November 18, 1867 in a 20 ft tsunami. Today there are as much as 25,000 people at risk around the Bay because of cruise ships. Almost all these people are in the tsunami inundation zone around the bay, docks, beaches and shops.

October 11, 1918, a Mona Passage earthquake caused a foot tsunami in western PR killing about 140 Modified after Reid and Taber, 1919 R-F Intensity Scale 2010 Risk to Life:~30,000 around Mayagüez vicinity

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami Caribbean and Alaska Coastal Risks Est’d Events per century Beach Water Temp °F Est’d Daily Beach Atten- dance Impact with only 5% Loss of Life Prior Risk Today’ Actual Risk to Life Caribbean: U.S. and Neighbors 2 events per century (*2,*3) Warm (80+°F) (*1) 500K (*4) 25,000 per event 50,000 per century HighVery High State of Alaska 5 events per century (*2) Frigid (45- °F) (*1) 4K (*4) 200 per event 1000 per century High Potential Loss of Life, 50 times greater at Caribbean Beaches! (K = a thousand e.g. 4K means 4,000 people)

Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami Caribbean and Hawaii Coastal Risks Est’d Events per century Beach Water Temp °F Est’d Daily Beach Atten- dance Impact with only 5% Loss of Life Prior Risk Today’ Actual Risk to Life Caribbean: U.S. and Neighbors 2 events per century (*2,*3) Warm (80+°F) (*1) 500K (*4) 25,000 per event 50,000 per century HighVery High State of Hawaii 5 events per century (*2) Warm (80°F) (*1) 100K (*4) 5000 per event 25,000 per century HighVery High Both have a “Very High” Loss of Life potential ! (K= a thousand e.g. 100K means 100,000 people)

Other sources of data and footnotes. *1 – NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures. *2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. *3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, O’Loughlin. *4 – Potential loss of life exposures values are estimates from the World Tourism Organization, Tourism Market Trends, 2006 Edition and tourism numbers from state government or tourism sources from Alaska, Hawaii etc.

Since 1842: Caribbean (PR, USVI & Neighbor Nations) with only 1/6 the area had six (6) times more tsunami deaths than northeastern corner of the “Pacific Rim” (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)! : 579 deaths : deaths

History and Today: A sobering summary ! Comparing 168 years of History… –…the Caribbean is 1/6 the area of our northeastern Pacific rim… (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)… –…yet, the Caribbean has produced 6 times more tsunami deaths ! –But Today, the Caribbean Basin has a much greater population of coast/beach residents and tourists at risk to nearby… short-fused, very local tsunami-genic sources !

More Sobering Conclusions …The Indian Ocean and Caribbean have much in common: –Attractive climate and year-round warm waters –Large beach/coastal tourism (still growing) –Relatively flat beach/coastal topography –Infrequency... NOAA Geophysical Data Center says our Caribbean Basin has had 8% of the world’s tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, 7%. …such similar infrequency did not protect Indian Ocean nations from their horrific tsunami loss of life (12/26/04) estimated around 250 thousand people !

Caribbean Tsunami Warning Services – Interim & Future –Very good Interim Tsunami alerts & information services: Caribbean nations from Pacific Tsunami Warning Center; PR & USVI, from Alaska TWC. –A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center (CTWC) co- located at Puerto Rico Seismic Network offers more regional expertise, cultural insight, faster warnings. –Future: the US is undergoing a phased-in CTWC implementation process –Now: The National Weather Service appointed a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program Manager at Mayaguez in February, 2010.

A “tsunami-ready” Nation avoids having to learn from tragedy ! Bill Proenza, Regional Director National Weather Service, Southern U.S.A. Office: