1. TSUNAMI… “El Peligro Olvidado !” The Forgotten Danger !
“Assessing ‘Risk-to-Life’ from Tsunamis in the Caribbean”
Japan Tsunami, Mar 11, 2011; Indian Ocean Tsunami, Dec. 26, 2004; Haitian Earthquake, Jan. 12, 2010
UNESCO IOC/SC-IOCARIBE XI Meeting
May 18, 2011, Univ. of Miami, Key Biscayne, FL USA
Bill Proenza, Regional Director, National Weather Service, Southern U.S.
Are we really safer in the 21st Century? Only if we are better prepared since are risk to life is actually higher! 1

2. National Weather Service
has only six regions & largest CONUS regions in most of government.
Alaska Region
Eastern U.S.
Western U.S.
Central U.S.
We have one of the most severe weather active areas in the world…tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms, lightning/hail, wildfires, tropical cyclones…
Southern U.S.
w/ 27% of NWS offices
Pacific Region
Hawaii & Guam
Puerto Rico &
Virgin Islands

3. Japan Tsunami – March 11, 2011
The area under the one hour spread of the Japan tsunami covers most of the Caribbean!

4. The energy of the tsunami, perpendicular to the strike!

5. Despite Infrequency, 168 Years of Deadly Caribbean Tsunamis
Fatalities
1842 Haiti
Venezuela
Virgin Islands (U.S.)
Panama
1906 Jamaica
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic(1) 1790
Dominican Republic(2)
Haiti
TOTAL
Ref: Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (2003: ISBN ); Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120; PRSN on Haiti,2010

6. The Caribbean has many tsunami-genic sources, most of them short-fused (nearby)…
Earthquakes (tectonic subduction zones & numerous faults)
Landslides (continental shelves, PR trench, coastal slides
Volcanoes
(submarine & land)
Tele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)

7. The Caribbean Situation !
Last major deadly tsunami(s) was in 1946, at the Dominican Republic: 1865* deaths.
Since 1946, tremendous post WW-II coastal population growth has occurred across the Caribbean along with explosive tourism .
Therefore, if we use Caribbean’s historical tsunami deaths, it will greatly understate the current 21st century potential loss of life!
So, how do we assess our current potential loss of life from tsunamis?
*Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from
by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN edition)

8. Assessing: Risk to Life
*Risk (potential loss of life) =
Hazard Frequency x
Amount of Exposure x Mortality Rate (%)
R = HF x AE x MR
*Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

9. Applied to Caribbean tsunamis: Hazard Frequency: historical rate Exposure: current number of “beach dwellers” in harm’s way Mortality Rate: percent death rate
*HAZARD FREQUENCY (history based)
*EXPOSURE (people at the beach)
TODAY’s RISK
TO LIFE
*MORTALITY (2-meter fatality rate…a percent)
*Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

10. The risk to life from tsunamis has increased dramatically with coastal population increases and tourism growth. Here we see the port at Charlotte Amalie Bay, St. Thomas
20 Foot tsunami, November 17, 1867
Same bay in St. Thomas today with the lives of 25,000 tourists & residents at risk !
30 people lost their lives on November 18, 1867 in a 20 ft tsunami. Today there are as much as 25,000 people at risk around the Bay because of cruise ships. Almost all these people are in the tsunami inundation zone around the bay, docks, beaches and shops.

11. October 11, 1918, a Mona Passage earthquake caused a foot tsunami in western PR killing about 140
Based on old seismic scale (Rossi-Farrell)
R-F Intensity Scale
Modified after Reid and Taber, 1919
2010 Risk to Life:~30,000 around Mayagüez vicinity

12. Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami
Caribbean and Alaska Coastal Risks
Est’d Events per century
Beach Water Temp °F
Est’d Daily Beach Atten-dance
Impact with only 5% Loss of Life
Prior Risk
Today’Actual Risk to Life
Caribbean: U.S. and Neighbors
2 events per century (*2,*3)
Warm (80+°F)
(*1)
500K
(*4)
25,000 per event 50,000 per century
High
Very High
State of Alaska
5 events per century (*2)
Frigid (45- °F) 4K
200 per event per century
Potential Loss of Life, 50 times greater at Caribbean Beaches! (K = a thousand e.g. 4K means 4,000 people)

13. Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami
Caribbean and Hawaii Coastal Risks
Est’d Events per century
Beach Water Temp °F
Est’d Daily Beach Atten-dance
Impact with only 5% Loss of Life
Prior Risk
Today’ Actual Risk to Life
Caribbean: U.S. and Neighbors
2 events per century (*2,*3)
Warm (80+°F)
(*1)
500K
(*4)
25,000 per event 50,000 per century
High
Very High
State of Hawaii
5 events per century (*2)
Warm (80°F)
100K
5000 per event 25,000 per century
Both have a “Very High” Loss of Life potential ! (K= a thousand e.g. 100K means 100,000 people)

14. Other sources of data and footnotes.
*1 – NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures.
*2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center.
*3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, O’Loughlin.
*4 – Potential loss of life exposures values are estimates from the World Tourism Organization, Tourism Market Trends, 2006 Edition and tourism numbers from state government or tourism sources from Alaska, Hawaii etc.

15. Since 1842: Caribbean (PR, USVI & Neighbor Nations) with only 1/6 the area had six (6) times more tsunami deaths than northeastern corner of the “Pacific Rim” (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)! :
3510+ deaths
: 579 deaths

16. History and Today: A sobering summary !
Comparing 168 years of History…
…the Caribbean is 1/6 the area of our northeastern Pacific rim… (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)…
…yet, the Caribbean has produced 6 times more tsunami deaths !
But Today, the Caribbean Basin has a much greater population of coast/beach residents and tourists at risk to nearby… short-fused, very local tsunami-genic sources !

17. More Sobering Conclusions
…The Indian Ocean and Caribbean have much in common:
Attractive climate and year-round warm waters
Large beach/coastal tourism (still growing)
Relatively flat beach/coastal topography
Infrequency... NOAA Geophysical Data Center says our Caribbean Basin has had 8% of the world’s tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, 7%.
…such similar infrequency did not protect Indian Ocean nations from their horrific tsunami loss of life (12/26/04) estimated around 250 thousand people !

18. Caribbean Tsunami Warning Services – Interim & Future
Very good Interim Tsunami alerts & information services: Caribbean nations from Pacific Tsunami Warning Center; PR & USVI, from Alaska TWC.
A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center (CTWC) co-located at Puerto Rico Seismic Network offers more regional expertise, cultural insight, faster warnings.
Future: the US is undergoing a phased-in CTWC implementation process
Now: The National Weather Service appointed a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program Manager at Mayaguez in February, 2010.

19. A “tsunami-ready” Nation avoids having to learn from tragedy !
Bill Proenza, Regional Director
National Weather Service, Southern U.S.A.
Office:
Considering the number of high impact natural events we in NWS SR deals with, we have extensive experience with alerts etc. 19