presented to ISMORS September 2009 Dr. David S. Alberts Director, Research OASD/NII – DoD CIO Redefining the “M” in MOR st Century OR Challenges for Militaries

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Military Operations Research Q. What makes MOR different from OR? A: It is all about the problem formulation. Specifically, ~ the Objective Function / MoE ~ the assumptions ~ the “approved” scenarios ~ the “validated” models

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September The Problem There is a fundamental disconnect between Military Operations Research Problem Formulations of & 21 st Century Military Mission Challenges

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September The value chain is broken! Information Sharing Information Quality Shared Awareness Self- Synchronization Mission Effectiveness Robustly Networked Force Collaboration The Result

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September st Century Military Missions are Complex Endeavors Complex Endeavor Complexity of ‘Self’ Complexity in the Task and Environment = + 21 st Century Military Missions

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September The success of 21 st Century “Military” Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space - political, social, economic, military The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Humanitarian Assistance Counter Terrorism Stability Operations Disaster Relief Peace Keeping Task and Environment

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September The success of 21 st Century “Military” Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space - political, social, economic, military The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Humanitarian Assistance Counter Terrorism Stability Operations Disaster Relief Peace Keeping Task and Environment Military Missions are no longer Military Missions !

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to: Culture, values and norms; Laws, policies, rules, and regulations; Practices and processes; Levels of trust; Language; Information and communications capabilities; Approach to organization and management. The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities. Complexity of Self

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Implications for Command and Control There will not be a unified chain of command. Entities will each have their own intent. The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all entities. There will be multiple planning processes. Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will be non-organic. Actions, to be effective, will require developing synergies between and among entity actions. There is a difference between Entity C2 and Collective C2 The nature of C2 is an assumption

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September It’s all about Networks Effects Network Networked Self Complex Endeavors are the rule not the exception Complex Effects Space –More than just effects in a single domain –Interactions in effects space significant –Lack of understanding of cross-domain cause-effects –Inability to predict Operating in a Network-Centric Environment –Many v. Few –Unfamiliar v. Familiar Complex “Self” –“Self” is composed of a large number of heterogeneous entities –Different objectives, values, constraints –No single entity in charge –Entities have significantly different perceptions

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Focus and Convergence Focus and Convergence accomplishes the functions associated with command and control without the existence of a single chain of command the assumption of control Replaces the C2 assumption

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September F&C Approach Space Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Distribution of Information Among Participants

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Approach Space Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Distribution of Information Among Participants Traditional Military / Industrial Organizations

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Approach Space Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Distribution of Information Among Participants Traditional Military / Industrial Organizations The constraint to operate in a small part of this space Is not longer valid

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Approach Space Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Distribution of Information Among Participants Traditional Military / Industrial Organizations Edge Organizations

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Archetypical Approaches Archetypical

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September The Challenge Approach to Focus and Convergence Endeavor Space What is your requisite level of Maturity? How much Agility do you need to have?

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September F&C Agility Agility is an umbrella concept that includes: –Responsiveness; –Robustness; –Resilience; –Flexibility; –Innovativeness; –Adaptability. F&C Agility is the ability to maintain effective F&C as a function of changing circumstances and stresses. replaces the objective to maximize mission effectiveness

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September F&C Agility F&C Agility involves more than being able to recognize the nature of the situation and adjust the C2 Approach F&C Agility also involves being able to maintain an acceptable level of effectiveness in the face of: –Physical, Electronic, and Cyber attacks that destroy or degrade nodes and/or links; –Information attacks that results in a loss of information or the insertion of misinformation; –A loss of trust in information, services, or entities; –An austere environment that limits connectivity and services; –….

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Getting Started on the Way Ahead Acquire a New Mindset –Recognize the need to move beyond traditional approaches –Recognize that there is no single approach that fits all situations –Recognize the difference between entity and collective action –Adopt the language of Focus and Convergence Use Case Studies and related Analyses to –Select targets for F&C Maturity and Agility –Determine, for a given endeavor, your Requisite Maturity and Requisite Agility –Work with others, in a given endeavor, to determine the Requisite Maturity and Agility of the Collective Use the F&C Maturity Model to: –Characterize and understand your approaches and capabilities –Identify what co-evolution is required to move to the next level of maturity –Create time-phased milestones for your implementation plan

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September Military Operations Research