History of Iraq This region was part of the Ottoman Empire in the 1500’s. During WWI, Great Britain set up the Kingdom of Iraq and put a Pro-British ruler into power.

Anglo-Iraqi War In 1941, a group of Iraqi Nationalists that wanted to be independent and began to revolt against the British governing them with the help of the Nazis. This was during WWII and the British violently ended the revolt in 1 month. Following this Britain also invaded Syria and Lebanon in order to maintain order in the Middle East.

On your Left Side, answer: How do you think this would impact the view of Western powers following the revolt? Why?

History of Iraq In the 1950’s this government was overthrown. After a series of other governmental changes the Ba’ath Party took power in 1968.

Iraq: Saddam Hussein A Ba’ath leader named Saddam Hussein became the president. Saddam Hussein was a harsh ruler. He controlled the press, restricted personal freedoms and killed numerous political enemies. Iraq was the second largest oil exporter in the world.

Before the Iran-Iraq War In the years after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War Iran, under the Shah, was a US ally while Iraq was in the Soviet camp Iran kept an eye on the USSR & OPEC Iraq bought arms from the USSR Major changes in 1979 Saddam Hussein & the Ayatollah Khomeini gained power in Iraq & Iran, respectively The Soviet army rolled into Afghanistan

The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)

CAUSES: Iran Iraq War 1980-1988 Assassination attempt on Iraqi official named Tariq Aziz by a Shiite extremist group backed by Iran named DAWA Contested rights to waterway called Shatt Al Arab along the border of Iran and Iraq Saddam hoped to annex, or conquer, a part of Iran where many Arabs lived But remember… there are deeper, more complicated issues between Iraq and Iran

The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) Q10

The Iran-Iraq War: Taking Sides

Ayatollah Khomeini Saddam Hussein

SADDAM HUSSEIN Modern, western government Sold oil to US Secular, laws not based on Koran Sunni Arab Known support of terrorists (Abu Nidal) Wanted to make Iraq the leading state in the Middle East

AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI Came to power through revolution in 1979 Shiite Persian Created Islamic theocracy Held Americans hostage in US Embassy in Iran for 444 days Supported Hezbollah, a known terrorist organization which attacked Israel

Who would the US support, Iran or Iraq? Once and future Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein shake hands December 20, 1983 in Baghdad, Iraq. Rumsfeld met with Hussein during the war between Iran and Iraq as an envoy for former US President Ronald Reagan. (Photo by Getty Images) Oliver North formulated part of the plan to sell guns to Contra rebels in Nicaragua to raise money to buy the release of hostages held by terrorists loyal to Iran.

The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988 In 1980, Iraq broke the Baghdad Pact, invading Iran, expecting an easy victory, finding more resistance than expected In 1981, Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear plant In 1984, the USA, fearing victory by Iran, renewed diplomatic relations with Iraq The USA armed & trained the Iraqi army Finally, stalemate in 1988

Iraq: Iraq/Iran War In 1980 Iraq invaded Iran. Saddam Hussein was worried that the Shia Islamic revolution that was taking place in Iran would spill over into Iraq.

Secretary Rumsfeld & Saddam Hussein: 1983

Impact on Saddam of US Aid Transformed Saddam into a much stronger, even more ruthless leader Baathist power solidified, cult of the personality strengthened The US had a hard time convincing Saddam to engage Iran in the final battles that secured a draw—and a ceasefire In short, we contributed enormously to the creation of a nightmare

Iraq’s Oil Fields

Iraq: Iraq/Iran War Saddam Hussein decided to take advantage of the chaos in Iran and invade without being noticed. The Iranians fought back and the Iraq/Iran war continued until 1988. Both countries suffered.

The Iraq-Iran War Donald Rumsfeld and Suddam Hussein This was a war between a Saddam Hussein led Iraq vs. Ayatollah Khomeini’s Iranian Army. Iraq Invaded Iran in 1980. At the time Iran was a bitter enemy of the U.S. with Iran taking U.S. Hostages in 1979. This was protest against U.S. involvement in the Iranian Government. So the U.S. supported Iraq in the war. Iraq used Chemical Weapons against Iran on several occasions. The war ended in a ceasefire in 1988.

Iraqi Soldiers At the Front 375,000 Iraqi casualties & 60,000 POWs!

Iranian Soldiers Over 1,000,000 Iranian casualties! Q11

EFFECTS : Iran Iraq War 1980-1988 Horrific trench warfare, massive casualties (over 1 million) Allegations of Iraqi use of chemical weapons on both Iranians and Iraqi Kurds US quietly and secretly supported both sides… Ended as a stalemate, although Saddam claimed victory (built the “Hands of Victory” monument pictured on right) Massive war debts for Iraq and Iran

On your Left Side, answer: What aspects of the Iran-Iraq War surprised you and why? Do you think America should have been involved in the war and allied with Saddam Hussein? Why?

Operation al-Anfal Spoils of War Genocide in Iraq Operation al-Anfal Spoils of War

Operation al-Anfal March 1987-April 1989 Victims: Iraqi Kurds 50,000-100,000 killed 90% Kurdish villages in targeted area destroyed Perpetrators: Ba’ath Regime- Saddam Hussein & Hassan Ali al-Majid

Leaders Saddam Hussein Ali Hassan al-Majid, aka "Chemical Ali” President of Iraq from 1979 to 2003 A leading member of the Ba’ath Party Ali Hassan al-Majid, aka "Chemical Ali” commander of the north at that time Saddam’s First Cousin

Kurds Sunni Muslims Own Language & Culture Live in areas of Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Syria and Armenia. ( Kurdistan) About 5 million currently live in Iraq

The Genocide of the Kurds Iraq also has a population of 4 million Kurds- about 23% of the population. The Kurds have always felt separate from the rest of Iraq. In fact, they are the largest people in the world without their own state- approximately 20-25 million of them live throughout Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

Kurds of Iraq Kurds are a stateless people scattered over Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran Kurds make up more than 4 million of Iraq’s population of 18 million Some 25 million Kurds cover an estimated 200,000 square miles. The Kurds are divided by two forms of Islam, five borders, and three Kurdish languages and alphabets Ever since Iraq had gone to war with Iran in 1980, Saddam Hussein, had been especially concerned with his “Kurdish” problem. Kurds made up more than 4 million of Iraq’s population of 18 million. Hussein’s security forces could control those in the towns, they found it difficult to keep a close watch on rural Kurds. Armed Kurds used the shelter of the mountains to stage rebellions against Iraqi forces. Some even aligned themselves with Iran. Hussein decided that the best way to stamp out rebellion was to stamp out Kurdish life.

The Genocide of the Kurds In fact, they are the largest people in the world without their own state- approximately 20-25 million of them live throughout Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

Before the Genocide Kurds over the past 90 years struggle and rebellion against governments that have tried to 1. assimilate them 2. at times marginalize them

History of Kurds Were promised a state of their own in 1922, but Turkey refused to ratify the Treaty of Sevres and the idea was dropped. This same pact would have required prosecution of Turks for their atrocities against the Armenians Iraqi Kurds staged frequent rebellions in hopes of governing themselves U.S. policymakers have long found the Kurds an infuriating bunch. They have been innocent of desiring any harm to the Iraqi people, but like the Albanians in Kosovo throughout the 1990’s, they were guilty of demanding autonomy. Hayword Rankin, a Middle East specialist at the U.S. embassy of Baghdad said, “You have to understand, the Kurds are a terribly irksome, difficult people. They can’t get along with one another, never mind with anybody else. They are truly impossible, an absolute nightmare to deal with. “ They have squabbled with themselves as often as they have attempted to wriggle free of their Baghdad masters.

History of the Kurds In 1970, Iraq offered the Kurds self-rule in a Kurdistan Autonomous Region that covered half of the territory that the Kurds considered theirs. It excluded Kurdish-populated oil-rich provinces. Kurds reject the offer

History of the Kurds Saddam Hussein, imposed the plan unilaterally in 1974 Kurds thought they would get support from the United States, Iran, and Israel U.S. was concerned with Iraq’s friendship with the Soviet Union Iran and Iraq were in a dispute over their border Kurds revolt under their leader, Mullah Mustafa Barzani Mullah Mustafa Barzai is the grandfather of Massoud

The Genocide of the Kurds In 1970, Saddam Hussein did give the Kurds some limited autonomy. But by 1974, Kurds led a revolt which Saddam brutally crushed and forced 130, 000 Kurds to flee to Iran.

History of the Kurds 1975, Algiers agreement temporarily settles border dispute between Iraq and Iran Iraq agrees to recognize the Iranian border Iran and U.S. withdraw their support for the Kurds Without the support of Iran and U.S., Kurd revolt collapses Kurds were treated by Saddam Hussein as traitors for aligning with the enemy Saddam Hussein had publically warned that “Those who have sold themselves to the foreigner will not escape punishment. He enacted swift revenge

Before the Genocide POLITICAL STRUGGLES War broke out in 1974-75 Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Vs. the Iraqi Army 1975 the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 1980 The start of the Iraq-Iran war Hussein support from the United States Iran support Kurdish parties (weapons and $)

The Genocide of the Kurds Things would get worse after 1980, when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran, leading to the bloodiest war of 20th century since WWII. Iranian Forces

The Genocide of the Kurds Many Kurds began to ally themselves with Iranians in the war as an opportunity to try to break away from Iraq and gain their own state. As a result, violence against the Kurds increased steadily throughout the 1980’s.

The Genocide of the Kurds But things became the worst when Saddam appointed his cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid (“Chemical Ali”) to handle the “Kurdish Question.” “Chemical Ali”

History of the Kurds Saddam ordered the 4,000 sq mi. of Kurdish territory in northern Iraq, Arabized Imported large Arab communities (Kurds were Muslim) Required Kurds to leave any area he considered strategically valuable Many were deported to the southern border within 2 months Some sources say 200,000 others say as nearly ½ a million. Beginning in 1975 and continuing into the late 1970’s, the Iraqis established a 6 to 12 miles wide prohibited zone along their border with Iran. Iraqi forces destroyed every village that fell inside the zone and relocated Kurdish inhabitants to large army controlled collective settlements along the main highways and interior. Tens of thousands of Kurds were deported to southern Iraq This phase of repression seems pretty mild. The Iraqi government offered compensation. Many of the Kurdish men who were deported to the iraqi desert actually returned alive several years later. When Iraq went to war with Iran in 1980, the Kurds prospects further plummeted.

The Genocide in Kurdistan He nicknamed his solution the “Anfal” (“spoils”) Campaign- a reference to the 8th Sura of the Qu’ran, which refers to the 1st major victory of Muslim forces in 624 A.D. The Anfal Campaign lasted from February 23 1996 until September 1988- it had eight stages and involved aircraft and 200,000 Iraqi soldiers (the Kurds had no more than a few thousand troops).

Operation al-Anfal Evacuation of Kurds from villages Destruction of villages Elimination of Kurdish populations

The Genocide of the Kurds The campaign began by rounding up Kurds, deporting them from their homes, sending them to camps, and having the males of fighting age executed.

The Genocide of the Kurds The first reports of chemical weapons came in May of 1987, when 20 villages were gassed to deter the population from helping Iranian forces.

The Genocide of the Kurds The most infamous act of genocide, however, happened in March 1988 at the village of Halabja- where the Iranians were threatening to break through- killing 5,000 people including men, women, children, and infants (they used a hydrogen cyanide compound similar to a chemical used against the Jews during the Holocaust)

Chemical Attacks Used on villages too difficult to for troops to reach. Halabja-March 16, 1988 (largest chemical attack on civilians in history) 3,200-5,000 died 7,000-10,000 wounded Diseases and birth defects for years to follow

The Genocide of the Kurds

The Genocide of the Kurds

The Genocide of the Kurds

Operation al-Anfal Results 15 million land mines throughout countryside 90% of villages & 15-20 cities/towns destroyed 1.5 million Kurdish peasants interned in camps

Mass Executions Most Kurds who died in the Anfal were killed in mass executions Senior Reagan administration officials made it plain that the fate of the Kurds was not their concern Several Kurds survived Iraqi firing squads and later came forward to describe the horror Read Ozer’s story in a problem from Hell p. 196 The Iraqis tried to vary their methods: Some groups of prisioners were lined up, shot from the front and dragged into pre-dug mass graves; others were shoved roughly into trenches and machine-gunned where the stood; others were made to lie down in pairs, sardine-style, next to mounds of fres orpses, before being killed; others were tied together, made to stand on the lip of the pit, and shot in the back so that they would fall forward into it-a method that was presumably more efficient from the point of view of the killers. Bulldozers then pushed earth or sand loosely over the heaps of corpses. Read story of Taimour Abdullah Amhad, twelve year old boy who survived and escaped. P. 197 a problem from Hell

Final Offensive Against the Kurds The final offensive against the Kurds was widely known New York Times ran a long front page story on Sept. 1, 1988 65,000 Kurdish victims and survivors go to Turkey p. 201 The media gave this offensive more intensive coverage than previous Iraqi assaults because it quickly sent 65,000 Kurdish victims and survivors into Turkey. Turkey set up encampments along its border and refused to grant Iraq the reciprocal right of “hot pursuit” that Turkish forces had invoked so often to track down armed Turkish Kurds in northern Iraq. The Kurdish refugees did what Cambodians had done: They poured out their stories to journalists, who had full free access to southern Turkey. These stories got Galbraith’s attention immediately and that of the U.S.. Secretary of State eventually.

Final Offensive Against The Kurds U.S officials were reluctant to criticize Iraq and took refuge in the absence of perfect information. Said reports from Turkish border were not unanimous. The Regan administration’s endless search for “evidence” provided a familiar fig leaf for inaction. A Sept. 3 cable from the State Department to the U.S. embassy in Baghdad urged U.S. officials to stress to Hussein’s regime that the U.S. understood the Kurds had aligned with Iran and that the problem was a “historical one.” U.S. diplomats were to reserve comment until they had been able to take Baghdad’s view fully into account. The conduct of Iraq’s campaign was causing international outcry that was becoming embarrassing for the United States. One Dr. said it was a false problem. The refugees here are suffering from diarrhea and skin rash which are spreading because of overcrowding and unsanitary conditions. 40 Turkish Dr.’s said they had found no proof of the atrocities. One Turkish Dr. told New York Times that the blisters on the face of a 3 year old boy came from “malnutrition” and “poor cleanliness” Regan was concerned about the American farmer. 23% of all rice went to Iraq. 1 million tons of wheat was going to Iraq

Aftermath U.S. calls on the UN to send in a team of experts to Iraq to investigate. Prior investigations had concluded in 1986, 1987, and 1988 that Iraq had used chemical weapons against Iran By 1989 only a few hundred villages remained standing I Hussein’s “Kurdish autonomous region. 4,049 villages had been destroyed

Aftermath George Bush Sr. takes over White House in Jan. 1989 Iraq became the 9th largest purchaser of U.S. farm goods 12 Western states join together at the UN Human Rights Commission and sponsor a resolution to make a through study of the human rights situation in Iraq. U.S. refuses to join

Aftermath Oct. 2, 1989, a year after Kurds tumble into Turkey fleeing gas attacks, President Bush signs National Security Directive 26 (NSD-26) that says “normal relations between the U.S. and Iraq would serve our long-term interests and promote stability in the Gulf and Middle East.” Neither the Bush or Reagan administration ever spoke out against the forced relocation of the Kurds.

Justice Today Kurdish women survivors cling to rumors that their husbands remain alive in secret jails in the desert 70,000 Kurds have returned to Halabja where massive gas attacks took place Survivors remain blinded from burns Miscarriages and birth defects such as cleft palates are common

Justice High rate of lymphomas and leukemia No radiation or chemotherapy is available In their failed revolt against Baghdad in 1991 Kurds stormed secret police buildings and recovered documents Were not thinking of prosecuting officials just obtaining names of informants Records were transferred to National Archives in Washington, D.C.

Justice Human Rights Watch was granted exclusive access to the documents In 1992 and 1993 they interviewed 350 survivors Physicians for Human Rights exhumed mass graves and gathered forensic material Was the kind of study a U.S. government determined to stop atrocities might have attempted while the crimes were underway

Justice Human Rights Watch found between 50,000 and 100,000 Kurds (most children and children) were executed or disappeared between Feb. and Sept. 1998 alone. The confiscated Iraqi government records explicitly recorded the Iraqi aims to wipe out rural Kurdish life

After the Genocide AFTER SADDAM HUSSEIN, AN AGREEMENT The toppling of Hussein's regime = KDP and PUK buried their differences Gains Helped draft the country's new constitution Protected their distinctive identity Got a share of the country's resources and revenues Guarantees Kurds a certain degree of autonomy

After the Genocide Kurdistan (state within a state) Intelligence service Army Government Judiciary Holds its elections separately Sixteen countries = diplomatic ties Safety and stability = investment and trade

After the Genocide The current President of Iraq is a Kurdish leader Several Kurds a hold key ministries in the central government, like foreign affairs.

Justice Having documented the genocide, Human Rights Watch assigned lawyer Richard Dicker to draw up a legal case in spring 1994. His role was to prepare a tight case and persuade a state to take it on. If a genocide case were filed, the International Court of Justice could recommend that Iraqi assets be seized and that perpetrators be punished at home, abroad, or in some international court. Many said, “Gee this doesn’t look like the Holocaust to me.” After several years of badgering, two governments confidentially accepted the challenge, but they refused to file the case unless a European state would join them. To this day no European power has agreed.

Justice In July 1995, Secretary of State Warren Christopher signed a communique that found Iraq had committed genocide against Iraq’s Kurds and endorsed Human Rights Watch’s efforts to file a case against Iraq. To this day, no Iraqi soldier or political leader has been punished for atrocities committed against the Kurds. Communique- is an official report, usually sent in haste. By 2003, the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair claimed that Saddam maintained links to terrorist organizations, had weapons of mass destruction, and thus needed to be overthrown. In March of that year, the U.S. and its allies invaded Iraq, eventually deposing Saddam. Captured by U.S. forces on 13 December 2003, Saddam was brought to trial under the Iraqi interim government set up by U.S.-led forces. On 5 November 2006, he was convicted of charges related to the 1982 killing of 148 Iraqi Shi'ites convicted of planning an assassination attempt against him, and was sentenced to death by hanging. Saddam was executed on 30 December 2006.[9]

The Genocide of the Kurds During the U.S. invasion of Iraq, “Chemical Ali” was captured by U.S. forces in August 2003. In 2005 the first trial regarding the genocide took place at the Hague in the Netherlands- the court acknowledged “genocide” had occurred and a Dutchman named Frans van Anraat was sentenced to 15 years for selling chemical agents to Saddam.

After the Genocide June 2006 Iraqi Special Tribunal announced established under Iraqi law to try Iraqi nationals or residents accused of Genocide Crimes against humanity War crimes or other serious crimes committed between 1968 and 2003.

After the Genocide Iraqi Special Tribunal Panel of the five Trial Judges Conduct hearings Pronounce judgments Impose the sentences without using a jury

After the Genocide August 21, 2006 Saddam Hussein and six co- defendants = face trial December 2006 Saddam was put on trial for the genocide during Operation Anfal. December 30, 2006 Saddam Hussein was executed for his role in an unrelated massacre. The trial for the Anfal campaign was still underway January 8, 2007 remaining charges against Saddam Hussein were dropped June 23 2007 Ali Hassan al-Majid and two co-defendants = sentenced to death by hanging Another two co-defendants = sentenced to life imprisonment One was acquitted on prosecution's demand

Aftermath April 2, 1990- Sadaam Hussein confirms Iraq possesses chemical weapons Also gives his burn Israel speech “By God, we will make fire eat up half of Israel” if Israel attacks Iraq A week after the sanctions bill clears the Senate, Iraq invaded Kuwait. U.S. bombing of Baghdad begins Jan. 17, 1991 Senator William Cohen (R-Maine) “It is the smell of oil and the color of money that corrodes our prinicples” Senator Nancy Kassebaum from Kansas (which exported 1 million tons of wheat annually to Iraq) declared that farm state or not, Kansas should support the sanctions bill. I can’t believe that any farmer in this nation would want to send his products to a country that has used chemical weapons and to a country that has tortured and injured their children. P. 236

Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait Great celebrations among some Arabs, but not the other oil-producing countries Fear over the safety of Israel Fear over the global supply of petroleum Commitment to reverse a clear violation of international law Unanimous Security Council support for forcing Iraq out of Kuwait

Desert Shield to Desert Storm In the fall of 1990 a global force gathered to quarantine Iraq and if necessary evict Iraq from Kuwait Iraq essentially capitulated but with considerable casualties, retreating Allied forces stopped short of Baghdad, having achieved their official objectives Security Council extracts acquiescence from Iraq, imposing sanctions until conditions met

Iraqi Uprisings Global forces encouraged Iraqi uprisings Kurds rose up in the north, Shia Arabs in the south but not supported externally No fly zones established Sanctions imposed Food for oil program initiated Saddam remained deeply entrenched Civilians suffered miserably

1st Persian Gulf War On August 2, 1990, Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, ordered his army to invade Kuwait. At the time Kuwait produced over ten percent of the world's oil. Saudi Arabia feared an Iraqi invasion and promoted United Nations (which meant U.S.) Intervention. The War itself only lasted a little over a month. (Jan to Feb of 1991) Retreating Iraqi’s set fire to oil wells in Kuwait, because their view was that U.S. interests were only based on oil in the Middle East.

Iraq: Persian Gulf War In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Western world leaders were afraid to have Saddam Hussein in control of such a large share of the world’s oil. Western world leaders also thought Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD’s) (chemical and biological weapons)

Iraq: Persian Gulf War An alliance of countries (including U. S. and Great Britain) forced the Iraqis out of Kuwait

Iraq: Persian Gulf War

Iraq: Results of The Persian Gulf War Saddam Hussein remained in power in Iraq. Because Saddam refused to accept U. N. terms for peace, the U. N. placed an embargo on Iraq. Iraq’s economy suffered as a result of the embargo. 600 oil fields in Kuwait were set on fire with devastating environmental effects.

Second Iraq War

Bush Doctrine The United States will attack first against any nation that poses a threat to the security of the United States or its allies

Led by the United States and the United Kingdom, the invasion of Iraq began March 20, 2003, to overthrow the Iraqi gov’t of Saddam Hussein.

Leading Up To War United States identifies Iraq as a threat Broke cease fire agreement 17 times Repeatedly kicked weapons inspectors out of Iraq Police once held inspectors in parking lot for 2 days at gunpoint US points to evidence that Saddam is developing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD’s) Could be used against Israel or sold to terrorists President Bush declares Saddam Hussein a threat to the safety of the United States Issues Feb. 2003 as deadline for Saddam to step down from power Deadline ignored

Reasons given for invasion of Iraq: Fear of “Weapons of Mass Destruction” (Destroy them before they can be used on the U.S.) Saddam Hussein’s “human rights” abuses To spread Democracy and improve the life of the Iraqi people

1. Bush 43 WMD Argument Assumption: Iraq has WMD October 2002 NIE Pro and Con

2. Spreading Democracy Falling Dominoes and Democracy Map from Freedom House (2006)

3. Unfinished Business 1998 Iraq Liberation Act 1990/91 Gulf War When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda Relationship? Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370) Levin Report, October 2004 Pentagon Report, August 2007

2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002 UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02) Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02 National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

Questions About After the War Building Democracy: Internal Issues Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII Or Bosnia

Questions About After the War Regional Dynamics Iran Syria Al-Qaeda in Iraq

March 19, 2003: US Invasion April 9, 2003

War in Iraq March 2003: U.S. invades Iraq 78,000 troops Saddam’s government quickly collapses US confident that end of war is near Without clear authority- violence breaks out Looting Ethnic violence Not enough US troops to control the situation Police were disbanded

Coalition Government Meanwhile, coalition worked to create new, democratic government in Iraq 2004, power transferred to Iraqis 2005, Iraqis voted in country’s first multiparty election in fifty years Later approved new constitution to make Iraq Islamic federal democracy Continued violence, potential for civil war made country’s future highly uncertain

But… Mission Complicated Insurgency Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004 Kurdish Independence? Shiite militias (Iran?) Moqtada al-Sadr

Resistance 1st resistance: Political 2nd resistance: religious Former Iraqi Army soldiers trying to re-gain control 2nd resistance: religious Al-Qaeda comes to Iraq Iran helps Shia insurgence with weapons Method: Guerilla Warfare Ambush I.E.D.’s

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007 (Washington Post)

American Forces 168,000 by 2007 Patrols through cities Attempting to provide stability in order to establish a Democratic government Training a national army/ police force Patrols through cities Leading raids on suspected insurgents

Iraqi Government? Should Iraq be divided up into 3 separate nations? Problem: North (Kurds): Oil. Water resources Sunni (North): No water or oil resources Shia (South): Oil/ water resources. Connection to Iran Dec. 2005: Parliamentary elections successfully held Democracy is established

Political Developments? Honest Attempts to Build Government Ethnic parties Religious parties Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite Sunni vs. Sunni OIL

Positive Political Developments 7/03 Interim Governing Council 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution Council of Representatives 4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

In 2003, nearly 85% of American citizens, and Congress, supported the invasion of Iraq. In 2009, about 20% of American citizens support the current invasion of Iraq. Why the change?

No WMDs were ever found. Iraqi suicide bombers (loyal to Saddam Hussein) continue to interfere with any progress the U.S. makes in Iraq. Fewer Iraqi citizens support us than in 2003. (Don’t see enough progress) The new democratic Iraqi gov’t continues to have problems.

As of 2009, a majority of American citizens see the Iraq War as a waste of the last 6+ years, a waste of the 4,000 American soldiers killed, believe Iraq has nothing to do with the “War on Terror,” and believe we should remove our soldiers from the country immediately. However, others say one of the main reasons we have not had another Sept. 11th attack is because we removed Saddam Hussein from power before he had the chance to harm the United States, and believe that we should stay in Iraq until it is safe – no matter how long that takes.

President Obama Changes Policy Current 142,000 troops will be reduced to 25-30,000 by end of 2010. Iraqi Army / police will take on more responsibility US troops will be based outside of cities For support of Iraqi troops US troops will leave Iraq by end of 2011

Iraq So Far Saddam Hussein captured 4,287 US troops killed Tried and executed 4,287 US troops killed Over 30,000 US troops wounded Over 60,000 Iraqi’s killed $657 Billion so far

Budgetary Costs to Government Spending to date – $646 billion, Congressional Budget Office Total estimated spending thru 2017 Best case $1.7 trillion. More probable $2.7 trillion. Congressional Research Service estimate Today we are going to talk about the war in relation to two different costs. The budgetary cost is more of the direct cost that the government associates with the war 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

California Lutheran University: School of Business Operating costs The monthly “burn rate” or the war has been rising 4.4 billion in 2003 8 billion in 2006 12 billion in 2007 to an estimated 16 billion in 2008 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

Predicted spending on wartime operations (thru 2017) Conservative estimate 521 billion Realistic moderate estimate 913 billion 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

Military equipment replacement and repair Conservative estimate 132 billion Realistic moderate estimate 404 billion Sunk costs? 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

Additional Cost of Health Care Increasing demand for VA support Source: U.S. House of representatives budget committee, based on U.S. department of veterans affairs. 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

California Lutheran University: School of Business Disability Pay Best case $422 billion Long-term $717 billion 31% of soldiers who have returned filed disability claims and expected to increase Corporations are required to put money away, why shouldn’t the government? California Lutheran University: School of Business 4/16/2017

Cost of Demobilization We face a rapidly rising monthly cost to fund the war currently over 12 billion/month. Estimated 16 billion/month in 2008 Better estimates will follow upcoming presidential election 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

California Lutheran University: School of Business 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

Interest Payments on Debt US indebtedness at end of 2008 excess of $900 billion Including cumulative interest on the debt-financed war borrowing, exceeds $1.1 trillion 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

Economic Cost of Military and Contractor Fatalities 3,988 US soldiers have been killed in combat Government pays $500,000 to families (death benefit + life insurance) Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) $7.2 million Rough estimate of loss to U.S. economy is $28 billion due to loss of labor resource California Lutheran University: School of Business 4/16/2017

Economic Cost of the Seriously Injured 29,395 soldiers have been injured Value of Statistical Injury (VSI) – lost to the economy $6.1 million each 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

Accelerated Depreciation of Military Hardware Going through equipment six to ten times faster than normal peacetime rate. $250-375 billion to rebuild the entire armed services 404 Billion - Stiglitz 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

California Lutheran University: School of Business Oil A significant proportion of the increase in the price of oil resulted from the war Yearly Basket Price 1995 16.86 1996 20.29 1997 18.68 1998 12.28 1999 17.48 2000 27.6 2001 23.12 2002 24.36 2003 28.1 2004 36.05 2005 50.64 2006 61.08 2007 69.08 2008 92.15 © 2008 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries California Lutheran University: School of Business 4/16/2017

Direct costs to the U.S. economy A realistic moderate estimate assumes that $10 per barrel is the price increase due to the war & and the duration of these high oil prices is 8 years. The U.S. imports around 5 billion barrels a year. A $10 per barrel increase translates into an extra expenditure of $50 billion per year. Over the 8 years projected in the realistic moderate estimate, that is $400 billion extra expenditure on oil imports. 4/16/2017 California Lutheran University: School of Business

On your Left Side, At one time, Saddam Hussein was an ally of the United States and then he became our enemy. In a T Chart, identify reasons why some people in Iraq would see Saddam as a hero. And identify reasons why others in Iraq and the United States saw Saddam as a criminal.

On your Left Side, Playing “Monday Morning Quarterback”, looking back, do you think President Bush should have pursued war against Iraq? Why or why not?