Data Link & CNS/ATM: A Business Perspective Presented by Forrest Colliver 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Problems never turn out to be all that new… “ There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who could profit by the new order. This lukewarmness arises from the incredulity of mankind who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had actual experience with it. ” Niccolo Machiavelli c. 1513. 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Aeronautical Data Link: A Business Perspective Challenges & Opportunities What is the role of “communications” in the evolution of airspace operation and efficiency ? What happens if we do nothing to improve & evolve today’s communication environment ? The Data Link Business Decision-Making Process Why invest in data link ? Where to the opportunities lie ? What does data link implementation imply ? New services, procedures, systems Why is data link deployment so slow ? What can be done to get things moving ? 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Challenge Communications & CNS/ATM Navigation Communications ATC/AOC Operations & Control Centers Surveillance Graphic: FANS-IS Communication is a cornerstone of Air Traffic Management, as are Navigation & Surveillance 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Challenge CNS enables ATM Improved ATM Operations C N S Increased Use of Automation Improved Flow Management More Flexible Tactical Control To move from air traffic control toward real airspace management, collaborative planning among airspace users & managers becomes essential, both prior to and during the flight… RELIABLE COMMUNICATION REDUCES CONTROLLER & PILOT WORKLOAD Graphic: FANS-IS 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Challenge ATC voice communication today… VHF Voice HF Voice Air Traffic Services Graphic: FANS-IS VHF Transmitter HF Transmitter And concerning voice, little has changed since the 1940s… 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Challenge ATM data link today… CFMU DCL ATIS FANS-1 OLDI Other ATSOs RDPS-RDPS ASTERIX ADEXP ACARS Today’s ATC data communication is “evolutionary”, not “revolutionary”… Graphic: FANS-IS ATSO AIS/MET AFTN/CIDIN National Networks 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Opportunity The ATC Communication Problem… Today’s air/ground communication infrastructure is saturated Reliance on voice communications impacts controller/pilot efficiency Communication tasks represent at least 1/3 of controller workload today Miscommunications complicate pilot workload and overall system efficiency Poor efficiency leads to increasing mean flight delays Increasing mean flight delays leads to inability to maintain schedules Failure of scheduled operations means missed passenger and crew connections, aircraft in wrong locations, increased cost of operations… No relief expected from traditional AOC voice/data frequencies, since they are saturated as well… BOTTOM LINE Unreliable communication contributes to flight delays: via missed clearances/acknowledgements, comprehension errors… Without improved communications, operating costs mount, and increased airspace efficiency through such means as reduction of miles-in-trail, etc., becomes nearly difficult to achieve. 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Opportunity … and beyond ATC/AOC, communication demands only increase Airspace & aircraft operations depend on reliable ATC/ATM & AOC communication, but in addition, passengers have communication needs as well…in other words, “surplus” communication capacity is UNLIKELY AOC ATC/ATM Airspace Management Aircraft Operations APC/AAC Passengers / Commerce 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Opportunity What will motivate investment ? What drives the need for improved communications ? ATC/AOC voice/data spectrum saturation overall Airspace operational inefficiency due to reliance on voice communication for both routine & non-routine procedures What happens if we do nothing ? Growth in aircraft operating costs based on ever-increasing flight delays, due to operational inefficiencies Limits on expansion of services (i.e. additional flights) due to saturation of continental airspaces (North America, Europe) Limits on operational use of data link (AOC & ATC) due to frequency saturation, and to unavailability of cost effective alternatives to current VHF systems 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

The Opportunity How can we meet this challenge ? Solution to VHF spectrum congestion: Improved VHF data links (VDL/2, VDL/3) Alternative data links (in today’s world, SATCOM & HFDL) Transition of routine voice procedures (ATC & AOC) to data Solution to ATC communication inefficiencies: Common Denominator: Transition of routine voice procedures (ATC & AOC) to data A business opportunity lies in supply of technology & services to offer new & improved data links, along with the provision of air/ground controller/pilot data link communications. 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Business Decision-Making But is this really an opportunity ? Relationship of operational efficiency to communication capacity and procedures has been well-established, during the past decade FAA Controller/Pilot Data Link Study (1995, 1996) Eurocontrol Controller/Pilot Data Link Studies (1998) Data link cost/benefit analyses exist, including work in progress within RTCA FFSC: all show “cost-avoidance” benefits of data link North American & European C/AFT Studies (complete) RTCA FFSC CPDLC Benefits Study (in progress) Issues: Standardizing cost per flight hour for cost/benefit modeling Benefits allocation to investor/pioneers Achieving a critical mass in level of equipage to ensure that benefits can be delivered in designated airspaces 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Business Decision-Making Key Conclusions For at least the European & North American airspaces, implementation of controller/pilot data link provides an essential tool for improvements in airspace efficiency, given the attainment of a suitable equipage level in each of those airspaces. These improvements in efficiency are expected to lead to direct reductions in delays, and will enable operational procedures supporting a greater number of aircraft within these airspaces. However, to enable individual airline investment business cases, benefits (i.e. reductions in delays, increases in airspace capacity) must be allocated to investors. 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Finding Quantifiable Benefits What services offer benefit? Nature of data link applications define the benefit, as well as the cost… Focus of CNS/ATM and ATN today is Controller/Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC), a voice replacement service requiring reliable air/ground data link support Future evolution: collaborative decision making Controller and pilot act more as “manager” than “tactician”, reducing workloads and improving performance Communication capabilities allow exchanges between air & ground computers for pilot/controller decision support Current Applications (in-service time frame: 2002-2008) Initialization of contact & transfer of communications Management & control of aircraft movements 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Finding Quantifiable Benefits Specific Benefits of CPDLC Reduced congestion on voice channels, improved allocation of voice capacity to tactical needs Additional means of communication between pilots and controllers, the “second channel” for routine & strategic communications… More dynamic and efficient air/ground information exchange Improved distribution of workload among control team members & Flight Deck Personnel Reduced pilot-controller communication errors resulting from misunderstood instructions, readback/hearback problems, and stepped-on clearances HOWEVER, THE REAL BENEFIT OF CPDLC IS REDUCED CONTROLLER WORKLOAD, WHICH OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE SYSTEM CAPACITY WHILE IMPROVING SAFETY OF OPERATIONS 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Finding Quantifiable Benefits So why are CPDLC, CNS/ATM, ATN, VDL, etc Finding Quantifiable Benefits So why are CPDLC, CNS/ATM, ATN, VDL, etc. so hard to implement ? First, technology is NOT the problem, since CNS/ATM and ATN solutions have been prototyped, field-validated, and standardized at the ICAO, RTCA, EUROCAE, IATA, etc. levels for much of the past decade. The real issue is the justification of costs based on benefits, on a per-stakeholder or per-organization basis Cost/benefit studies so far have shown various positive levels of economic benefit for the civil aviation stakeholders as a whole, but attempts by many (if not all) organizations to construct “micro-scale”, or single-stakeholder, business plans for data link have largely failed. No stakeholder wants to invest without clear individual return, and the situation is made worse if the investment actually benefits a competitor, which is often the case illustrated by the various data link cost benefit studies 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link The Investment Model Data link is indeed a costly revolution… Aircraft must be fitted with data link computers, radios, displays, input/output devices, etc. ATC & AOC operational centers must be fitted with data link computers, displays, input/output devices, communication links Data links themselves must be upgraded to provide digital data communication capabilities end-to-end To relate the costs of these upgrades to the benefits: Aircraft operators must justify their investments based on an offset cost reduction per delay-minute avoided ATC & AOC operators must justify their investments based on safety and efficiency enhancements Communication service providers must justify their investments based on revenue projections for the services offered 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link …and the associated deadlock So far, this model has been sufficiently complex that only the pioneers have been willing to move forward… Obviously, the preceding investment model is simplified, since many factors play into an organization’s decision to invest in new technology However, looking at the investment model and the benefits model side-by-side, it is evident that the problem must be broken down to be manageable 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link The technical view (1/2) For tangible data link application benefits, the communication network must offer: Reliable & highly-available communication service Predictable, error-free, in-sequence message delivery In this context, the ATN goes beyond current ACARS and FANS-1/A support models for simple one-message clearances to offer support for full airspace management, enabling benefits such as reduced separation and/or preferential routing Certification view is that in this context, a communication system failure would be considered to be “major” 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link The technical view (2/2) For benefits related to aircraft movement control Controller & pilot workload must be reduced Controller/pilot messaging integrity must be assured Controller/pilot message sequencing must be assured Network availability must be predictable Allowable system failure probability: < 1 in 105 Based on protection against “major” failure threat Given that both technical performance & failure probability standards are met, aircraft movement control benefits can be achieved through an evolution from today’s “one message” model toward actual “air traffic management” 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link Data Link Certification Data link certification requires a paradigm-shift, since data link is inherently end-to-end Both air & ground components contribute to RCP Nature of contribution depends on service context Many players are involved in process: Airframe & avionics manufacturers Civil aviation & aircraft operating authorities Communication service providers Standards bodies (ICAO, RTCA/EUROCAE, AEEC, etc.) Most comprehensive model for ATN services: Developed by RTCA SC-189/EUROCAE WG-5 To be taken in context of safety & hazard analyses 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link So how do we manage data link investment & implementation ? Quantify delay-reduction benefits by region and by operator to induce aircraft operators to invest Where direct benefits do not exist per operator, derive/invent other financial incentives, such as preferential routing between favored city pairs; etc. Quantify capacity improvements by region to induce ATC authorities to invest Quantify operational enhancements by region and by operator, to induce aircraft operations centers to equip Agree with service provider on implementation arrangements to induce SP to upgrade. Develop a regional implementation plan, including appropriate planning for certification, managed by an implementation team representing all involved stakeholders 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)

Questions ? 18-19 September 2001 ATN2001 (London)