0 Future NWS Activities in Support of Renewable Energy* Dr. David Green NOAA, NWS Office of Climate, Water & Weather Services AMS Summer Community Meeting August 2009, Norman, Oklahoma * The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service.

1 Outline Grand Challenge Basic Requirements Strategic Energy Review Future Possibilities Moving Forward

2 Grand Challenge Provide climate, water, and weather information and infrastructure to support production and management of secure, reliable and sustained energy for the nation! –Contribute to the “smart grid,” an economic, environmental and national security imperative –Recognize and reduce risk of intermittent energy sources –Support blue-green tech innovation and job creation

3 Basic Requirements A comprehensive and integrated source of consistent and relevant data sets and generalized forecast guidance, which the energy enterprise can tailor Enduring partnerships to –Expand the observation network of networks –Enhance weather forecasts and climate scenarios –Increase ease of data access and availability –Integrate environmental management and planning –Infuse science & technology innovation –Support spatial planning

4 Nuclear Offshore/Coastal Oil & Gas Liquefied Natural Gas Methane Hydrates Geothermal Energy Transmission, Distribution and Storage Carbon Capture and Storage Solar Radiation Offshore Wind Land-based Wind Hydropower Hydrokinetic (wave, current, tidal) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Biomass and Biofuel Strategic Energy Review NOAA is conducting a strategic review of current and potential future NOAA energy-related activities, capabilities, and partnerships: Review results will –Evaluate gaps, opportunities, responsibilities and risks –Propose recommendations for a comprehensive and coordinated NOAA strategy in support of energy issues that considers environmental stewardship

5 Strategic Energy Review States and Regional Requirements

6 Proposed Future Activities in Support of Wind Energy (on and offshore) Selected expansion of observation network of networks –Gather mission requirements to improve services and utilized technology including LIDAR, SODAR, buoys, and satellites –Partner with tower owners and academia to site sensors and collect data Enhance weather forecasts and climate scenarios –Improve models and timely forecasts of speed, direction, shear, and turbulence, for surface winds, boundary layers and low level jets; Increase data access and availability –Populate 4D database with essential layers for m height winds as needed by the renewable energy enterprise; –Promote data standards and exchange with community for improved physics, and enhanced models, forecasts, and verification. Integrate environmental planning and management –Support offshore wind energy spatial planning with integrated wind, wave, tidal, ecological and other related forecasts Infuse science & technology innovation –Advance ensemble modeling and make smart use of testbeds

7 Proposed Future Activities in Support of Solar Energy Selected expansion of observation network of networks –Better exploit remote sensing of atmospheric constituents (clouds and aerosols) and ground-based measures of direct and total radiance –Work with partners to build a national solar network Enhance weather forecasts and climate scenarios –Assimilate new data sets and types (optical/spectral, boundary effects,…) –Advance short-term forecasts for direct and diffuse radiation –Improve models and predictions of seasonal variations Increase data access and availability –Leverage 4D data management, modeling, and mining Infuse science & technology innovation –Leverage NOAA-partner testbed capabilities for radiance detection –Develop and implement enhanced cloud and atmospheric models

8 Proposed Future Activities in support of Spatial Planning Solar Winds Wave Lake wind and waves Winds and waves on land & off shore

9 Proposed Future Activities in Support of Smart Grid Development Issue timely and consistent forecasts, probabilistic information, and scenarios variability and co-variability, climate projections, ecological impacts … near real-time data assimilation Provide geospatial information over relevant scales local, regional, transmission/distribution variable terrain and off shore Facilitate interoperability and integration data, metadata, and model standards Strengthen Infrastructure computing and communications

10 Moving Forward –Develop a more comprehensive weather-energy capability: Selected expansion of observation network-of-networks –Investment, integration, standards, quality control, infrastructure… Enhance forecasts and weather scenarios –Improve models (boundary layer complexities, high impact wx…) Promote 4D weather data information base Infuse science and technology including probabilistic forecasts –Promote robust planning and engage partnership Integrate of local observations, buoys, towers, and platforms of opportunity, and improve use of satellite for regional analysis Apply model downscaling and technology to improve skill –Support Improvement Research and development, and infusion to increase database and forecast reliability, scalability, and applicability