2014 Manning Barometer Setbacks and Opportunities

Methodology A total of 1,ooo on-line interviews were conducted with adult Canadians along with an oversample of 500 self- defined Conservatives. The interviews were conducted between December 16 th to 18 th, The margin of error for a representative sample of this size is 3.1 percentage points within a 95% confidence interval. The margin of error is greater when looking at sub- segments of the population Results reported in this presentation have a maximum margin of error of 4.9 percentage points within a 95% confidence interval. Detailed findings can be found on the Manning Centre website.

Setbacks

Political Ideology

Atlantic: 2012: : : 3.9 Political Ideology Quebec: 2012: : 3.9 Ontario: 2012: : : 3.9 Prairies: 2012: : : 4.1 BC: 2012: : : 3.8

Party Identification

Atlantic: 2012: 26% 2013: 18% 2014: 25% Regional Conservative ID Quebec: 2012: 12% 2013: 13% 2014: 16% Ontario: 2012: 35% 2013: 24% 2014: 25% Prairies: 2012: 40% 2013: 43% 2014: 48% BC: 2012: 33% 2013: 25% 2014: 20%

Economy as Dominant Concern

Perceived Ability to Deal With Most Important Issue (Economy) On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

Perceived Ability to Deal With Most Important Issue (Health Care) On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

Perceived Ability to Deal With Most Important Issue (Unemployment) On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

Perceived Ability to Deal With Emerging Issue (Poverty and Environment) On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

Canada’s Preparedness to Deal with Upcoming challenges in...

Opportunities: Clear Conservative Policy Directions

Direction of the country Current CPC support : 29%

Atlantic: Right : 44% Wrong: 35% Right/Wrong Direction Regional Differences Quebec: Right : 49% Wrong: 49% Ontario: Right : 49% Wrong: 51% Prairies: Right : 60% Wrong: 40% BC: Right : 32% Wrong: 68%

Direction of the country (All Canada)

Direction of the country (Conservatives)

In their own words Next steps for democracy

In their own words Next steps for the economy

In their own words Next steps for social policy

In their own words Next steps for society

Canadian Consensus 93% of Canadians support enhancing the powers of elections Canada to investigate electoral wrongdoings 93% support full disclosure of how public funds are spent 92% want to make Party Leaders more accountable to their respective caucus

Canadian Consensus 91% want to develop renewable energy 89% support reforming campaign financing laws to prohibit unions and companies from providing loans to parties and candidates 89% want to strengthen the role of caucus in the House of Commons 84% of Canadians support expanding trade with other countries

Conservative Agenda and Public Agenda HIGH PUBLIC, LOW CONS. Better balance between energy development and environment The environment Health Care HIGH PUBLIC, HIGH CONS. Investing in renewable energy Settling aboriginal land claims Full disclosure of spending of public funds Aging population Jobs & economy Reform or abolish Senate Accountability Tolerance Providing well paid jobs to young Canadians Dealing with euthanasia Skills training for older workers Expanding international trade LOW PUBLIC, LOW CONS. Legalize marijuana Abortion Extending working lives of Canadians beyond 65 Creating high quality jobs in energy sector Attracting highly skilled foreign workers LOW PUBLIC, HIGH CONS. Reducing the cost of doing business Limiting immigration General public agenda Conservative Supporters Agenda

Concluding Remarks

Winning Back “The 16%” Men Between the age of 46 and 64 In Ontario University Education

Winning Back “The 16%” Health Care Lower Taxes Aging Population Accountability Full Disclosure of Spending of Public Funds

NEXT STEPS: Policy priorities HIGH PUBLIC SUPPORT AND HIGH CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT Investing in renewable energy Settling aboriginal land claims Full disclosure of spending of public funds Aging population Jobs & economy Reform or abolish Senate Accountability Tolerance Providing well paid jobs to young Canadians Dealing with euthanasia Skills training for older workers Expanding international trade

Conservative Intellectual Capital

LIB CONS NDP Party Identification Tracking: A Cautionary Tale