NAIL108

USA  4 states permit testing of automated vehicles 15 rejected related bills  Now allowed in Nevada, then California, Florida, Michigan, DoC  First autonomous driverless car introduced in 1939, New York World’s Fair (Norman Bel Geddes, “Futurama” exhibit)

Europe  1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic Human being always has to be at the controls  Allowed testing Germany Sweden UK Netherlands Spain France (2015?)  Planned driverless transport in cities Belgium France UK

 DoT report: Changes to road regulations and car maintenance checks will be necessary to accommodate driverless cars on the roads of the UK  The government wants the UK to become a world leader in driverless technology.  The government promised a full review of current legislation by the summer of  Rewrite of the Highway Code and adjustments to MOT test guidelines.  Who would be responsible in the event of a collision and how to ensure the safety of drivers and pedestrians?  A "test driver" must be responsible for any automated car until the technology matures.  Those wishing to conduct tests in the UK will not be limited to test tracks or certain geographical areas and will not need to obtain certificates or permits  University of Oxford – Robot CarRobot Car source: BBC

UK  Transport and Road Research Laboratory Citroën DS, Standard vanguard, Austin Mini – 80mph, no speed/direction deviation in any weather conditions, and in a far more effective way than by human control. ○ chosen DS for easy automatic handling - high pressure hydraulic suspension, braking and steering system Adoption of British motorways would repay by 2000, increase road capacity by 50+%, reduce accidents by 40% Safety - what can be done to ensure that automated systems act in a robust, reliable manner with safety as the highest priority? Human factors - how will automation affect the way people use and interact with transportation systems? Societal and commercial effects - how will the implementation of automation in transport systems affect access to transport, value chains and business models? Standards - what level of standardisation is required to ensure safety and consistency without constraining innovation?

 

Germany  MOT - driverless or robot cars would probably become a feature on German roads within a few years  Committee including research, industry and politics, to draw up a legal framework that would make it permissible. Draft of key points to be ready before the Frankfurt car fair in September.  Part of A9 autobahn (Munich-Berlin) for testing robot car prototypes First cars ixpected in 2016 soonest 700MHz band for V2V communication  Expects the first commercially available models to be introduced by 2020  Mercedes Benz 2013 S500 Intelligent Drive (Mannheim to Pforzheim with some assistance), 2014 “Future Truck 2025” 80km/h  Audi A7 (San Francisco to Las Vegas), RS7 560HP (418kW) Hockenheim  Many other manufactures can park autonomously

Spain  2012 Volvo Sartre road train 200km, 85km/h, 6m apart XC60, V60, S60, truck following the leader cameras, lasers, radars reduced fuel costs up to 20%

Sweden  Volvo 2013:“Drive Me” program – to get driverless cars on the roads by 2017 "The starting point is to put these 100 cars in the streets of Gothenburg (Sweden), driven by normal people on normal roads, which will actually see whether this can be rolled out further in Europe and also in the U.S.,“ ○ in reaction to Renault-Nissan statement to deliver autonomous cars by 2020

Apple  Rumours based on Apple hiring people  But:  Can a company that outsources pretty much all of its manufacturing to China really remake an industry where an average product costs about 40 times what an iPhone does?  Apple isn't likely to have a car on the road until about 2020, if ever. Peter Thiel of the difference between Silicon Valley dreams and reality: "We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters."

Prediction (Wikipedia) 2016Mercedes plans to introduce "Autobahn Pilot" aka Highway Pilot, the system allows hands-free highway driving with autonomous overtaking of other vehicles. 2016Mobileye expects to release hands-free driving technology for highways. 2017the US Department of Transportation hopes to publish a rule mandating vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication by an as-yet unspecified deadline. GM says that by the 2017 model year, the Cadillac CTS will be V2V equipped. 2018Mobileye expects autonomous capabilities for country roads and city traffic. 2018Nissan anticipates to have a feature that can allow the vehicle manoeuver its way on multi-lane highways. 2020Volvo envisages having cars in which passengers would be immune from injuries.[87] Volvo also claims vehicles will effectively be "crash free." 2020GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan, BMW, Renault, Tesla and Google all expect to sell vehicles that can drive themselves at least part of the time. 2020ABI Research forecasts that truly self-driving cars would become a reality by 2020 and that 10 million such new cars would be rolling out on to United States' public highways every year by Google autonomous car project head's goal to have all outstanding problems with the autonomous car be resolved. 2024Jaguar expects to release an autonomous car. 2025Daimler and Ford expect autonomous vehicles on the market.[99][100] Ford predicts it will have the first mass-market autonomous vehicle, but released no target date for this. 2025most new GM vehicles will have automated driving functions as well as vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology. 2035IHS Automotive report says will be the year most self-driving vehicles will be operated completely independently from a human occupant’s control. 2035Navigant Research forecasts that autonomous vehicles will gradually gain traction in the market over the coming two decades and by 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually, representing 75% of all light-duty vehicle sales. 2040expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have estimated that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous.

 Notes on Autonomous Cars