Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 3SAQS Technical Scope of Work: Tom Moore, WESTAR/WRAP on behalf of University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) June 19, 2014

2 Changing management approach NPS-WESTAR cooperative umbrella agreement – Feb Same technical team (CIRA, UNC, ENVIRON) CIRA continuing under separate NPS agreement through June 2015 Steps and 2014 schedule – May: Governing Board approves 10/2014 through 9/2017 3SAQS workplan – June: Steering Committee approves summary of first phase of work starting 10/2014 for WESTAR/WRAP and ENVIRON/UNC – June 19 th : TechComm Review of details of first phase starts – July 3 rd : TechComm comments due – July: WESTAR awards contract to ENVIRON/UNC – End of September: NPS-UNC pilot study agreement ends – October: first phase of new workplan effort begins March 2015: begin SoW development for second phase

3 Current UNC/ENVIRON Work Efforts CAMx /12 km Modeling and MPE – 2020 Modeling using CAMx 2008 Platform – Populate 3SDW with 2008 Modeling Platform – First Two 2008 Database Requests for BLM WY NEPA Modeling EISs 2011 WRF Meteorological Modeling 2011 Emissions Development – 2011 Oil and Gas Following WRAP Approach – 2011 NEI – SMOKE-MOVES, MEGAN, etc. CAMx /12/4 km Base Case and MPE 2020 Emissions Projections Inventory Comparison CAMx /12/4 km Modeling using 2011 Platform

2015 ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 1: CMAQ V /12/4 km Modeling – MPE and Include in 3SDW – Schedule: Oct-Nov 2014

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 2: CAMx 2011 Source Apportionment (SA) Modeling – 2a: SA Design Document – 2b: CAMx /12 km Geographic SA (States) – 2c: CAMx /12/4 km Source Category SA (Emission Sectors) – 2d: CAMx km Three-States Detailed SA (Basins and Sectors) – 2e: Source Apportionment Web Tool (host on 3SDW) – 2f: Additional SA TBD – Schedule: Oct 2014 – Apr 2015

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 3: 2011 Air Quality Model Improvements – 3a: O&G – Sensitivity tests to investigate VOC, NOx, PM. CH4 differences between Pred/Obs concentrations Sensitivity runs have not been determined and will be specified by the Technical Committee – 3b: Vertical Transport and Mixing – 3c: Boundary Conditions (Global Chemistry Model) – 3d: Winter Ozone Formation – 3e: Ammonia Emissions – 3f: Additional Sensitivity Tests based on what we learn in MPE and above Sensitivity Tests – 3g: Integrated Sensitivity – Combination of Above – Schedule: Oct 2014 – Mar 2015

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 4: 2011 Deposition and Visibility Analysis – Evaluated visibility using RCFM and direct measurements – Analysis of deposition model performance accounting for chemistry in raindrops and samples – Schedule: Dec 2014 – Mar 2015 Task 5: 2014 Data Analysis and Modeling Plan – 2014 Modeling Protocol – Lessons Learned from 2008 and 2011 Modeling – Schedule: Jan-Feb 2015

2015 ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 6: 2014 WRF Modeling and Evaluation – WRF Modeling Protocol – Annual and Winter Ozone Configurations – Model Performance Evaluation – Schedule: Mar – May 2015

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 7: 2014 Emissions Platform Development and Testing – Preliminary O&G (Task 10) – SMOKE-MOVES using 2014 WRF and updated Activity Data from Three-States – 2014 Hourly Emissions for EGUs w/ CEM – MEGAN biogenic w/ 2014 WRF – Agricultural Ammonia using 2014 CAFO – Use best available data for Fires (e.g., FINN) – Simple projection of 2011 NEI to 2014 augmented with Three-State data as available – 36 km CONUS and 12 km WESTUS – 3SAQS_2014prelim – Schedule: Mar – Jul,

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 9: WRF Winter Ozone Modeling Platform – 9a: WRF Winter Ozone Model Configuration Adapt from UofUT and UDEQ SNODAS snow cover processor – 9b: February 1-7, 2013 benchmark against UofUT results – 9c: 2011 Winter Ozone Period WRF modeling – 9d: Winter Ozone WRF Memo – 9e: Additional Winter WRF Modeling – Schedule: Oct 2014 – Feb 2015

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 10: O&G Survey and Preliminary 2014 Emissions – 10a-c: Develop surveys for D-J, Piceance and Uinta Basins ENVIRON will already have surveys for most of D-J Basin under RPSEA/study to support FRAPPE summer 2014 Reference to 3 basins is covered by leveraged project for the D-J, and may also be covered by similar work in development for the Uinta by UT DAQ. WY DEQ requires survey responses and point source reporting and does not need 3SAQS surveys. At this point, Piceance & Uinta in the budget as the intended scope. – 10d-f: Perform Outreach for 3 Basins (Airstar Consult) – 10g-i: Develop 2014 O&G Emissions for 3 Basins Follow WRAP Phase III Methodology Assume have access to IHS Database “Permitted” O&G data from CO, UT, WY & EPA Assume survey data not yet available so project 2011 O&G to 2014 for “unpermitted” data – 10k: Technical Memo on above and also online O&G EI Tool – Schedule: Oct 2014 – Jun 2015

ENVIRON/UNC SoW (Oct 2014 –Jul 2015) Task 11: Project Management – Contact through WESTAR/WRAP w/ Tom Moore Technical Director – Keep UNC and ENVIRON as a Team Airstar for O&G Survey Outreach Zac Adelman and Ralph Morris Co-PIs – Conference Calls – ~Quarterly Technical Committee Meetings – Monthly Progress Reports and Invoices – Will develop master schedule for Oct 2014 – Jul 2015