Global Warming Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World? By Rich Deem Note: This slideshow is NOT meant to be printed. View in slideshow mode only because of extensive builds and animations. Go to the website for a printable copy. Requires PowerPoint 2003 or PowerPoint Viewer 2003.

Introduction Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?

History of Earth’s Climate Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Sun’s energy output only 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) Much of earth’s early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)

History of Earth’s Climate Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began billion years ago  Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)  Earth went through periods of cooling (“Snowball Earth”) and warming Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago

Sun Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Solar Energy Solar Energy Solar Energy

Sun Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Radiative Cooling

Sun Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Radiative Cooling

Sun Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Radiative Cooling

Greenhouse Effect Sun

Earth’s Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N 2 ) Oxygen (O 2 ) Water (H 2 O) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) >99% Methane (CH 4 ) <1% Non- Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases Argon (Ar)

Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect 97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature: 860°F Venus

Carbon Dioxide

Time (YBP) CO 2 (ppm) Vostok Ice CoreDome Concordia Carbon Dioxide Levels 0 Muana Loa Readings CO 2 Levels Since CO 2 (ppm) 0

Worldwide Carbon Emissions Carbon (10 9 metric tons) Year Liquid fuel Total Gas fuel Solid fuel

Annual Carbon Emissions Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 average Year Carbon (10 9 metric tons)

Future Carbon Dioxide Levels Increasing CO 2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries Likely to double within 150 years:  Increased coal usage  Increased natural gas usage  Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)

Kyoto Protocol Adopted in 1997 Cut CO 2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming

Past Temperatures

Year  Mean Temperature (°C) Recorded Worldwide Temperatures Flat Decreasing Flat

Winter Temperatures Year Summer Temperatures Year Annual Temperatures Year Temperature (°C) Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to Temperature Changes Compared to

Past Temperatures Measurement Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)  Tree rings  Ice cores  Pollen records  Plant macrofossils  Sr/Ca isotope data  Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

Temperature History of the Earth Little ice age ( ) – 1°C cooler Medieval warm period ( ) – 1°C warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation  Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic

Main Ocean Currents Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

Temperature History of the Earth For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

Orbital Parameters: Precession Perihelion Apehelion

Orbital Parameters: Obliquity 22.5° 24.5°

Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Perihelion Apehelion Minimum: Maximum: Not to scale! To Scale!

Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate Age (kya) Eccentricity (100 ky) Temperature Obliquity (41 ky) Precession (22 ky)

Temperature History of the Earth For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago

Younger Dryas Younger Dryas Event Age (kya) Temperature (°C) Snow Accumulation (m/yr) Little Ice Age Ice Age Medieval Warm

Younger Dryas Event  18 O (Greenland)  18 O (China) Younger Dryas Age (kya)

Temperature History of the Earth Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.  20°C higher at high latitudes  1°C higher at the Equator Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes  CO 2 levels that were 100 ppm higher  Increased thermohaline circulation

Temperature History of the Earth Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). Increased ocean current exchange  Strong global cooling  First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago

Temperature History of the Earth Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C Causes  Increased volcanism  Rapid release of methane from the oceans

Temperature History of the Earth Mid-Cretaceous ( mya) Much warmer Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes  Different ocean currents (continental arrangement)  higher CO 2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107: Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (ppmV) Continental Glaciation (Paleolatitude) PaleozoicMesozoicCenozoic SDCarbPTrJKPgNg A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO 2 Records

Recent Temperature Changes

“Hockey Stick” Controversy Year Temperature Change (°C) Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999

The Problem with Tree Rings Year Temperature Change (°C) Jones et al Briffa et al Mann et al. 1999

What Influences Tree Rings? Temperature Rainfall Carbon dioxide concentration

Mann et al Esper et al Temperature Change (°C) 2000 Year Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Year Temperature Change (°C) Mann et al Esper et al Moberg et al Mann et al Medieval Warm Period

U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June Year Temperature Change (°C) “high level of confidence”“2:1 chance of being right”

Year Year Temperature Cgange (°C) Atmospheric Temperatures TroposphereStratosphere

Time (YBP) CO 2 (ppm) Antarctica SST (°C) Tropical Pacific CO 2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

Consequences of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Year Temperature Change (°C) Year Northern vs. Southern LatitudeLand vs. Ocean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to

Ice Sheets Melting? GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)  confirmed Antarctica melting  Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)

Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro

Ice Mass (km 3 ) Year Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass

Rise in Sea Levels? Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of ± mm/yr 2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic

Changing Sea Levels Relative Sea Level (cm) Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5 Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland Global Temperature Change

Time (KYBP) Sea Level (m) Sea Levels for 450,000 Years SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

Increase in Hurricanes? Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy) Difficult to know if this trend will continue Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy) Difficult to know if this trend will continue Data Unreliable Scaled August-October Sea-Surface Temperature Adjusted Atlantic Storm Power Dissipation Index Scaled August-October Sea-Surface Temperature Adjusted Atlantic Storm Power Dissipation Index SST/SPDI (meters 3 /sec 2 )

How Much Temperature Increase? Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C

Wildlife Effects Polar Bears  Require pack ice to live  Might eventually go extinct in the wild Sea turtles  Breed on the same islands as their birth  Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world Polar Bears  Require pack ice to live  Might eventually go extinct in the wild Sea turtles  Breed on the same islands as their birth  Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world

Effect on Humans Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation  Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic CO 2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes  Droughts and famine (some areas)  Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes

Drought in Africa Lake Faguibine Lake Chad

Cost to Stabilize CO 2 Concentrations Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

Possible Solutions to Global Warming

Mitigation of Global Warming Conservation  Reduce energy needs  Recycling Alternate energy sources  Nuclear  Wind  Geothermal  Hydroelectric  Solar  Fusion?

Storage of CO 2 in Geological Formations 1.Depleted oil and gas reservoirs 2.CO 2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery 3.Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore 4.CO 2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery 1.Depleted oil and gas reservoirs 2.CO 2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery 3.Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore 4.CO 2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7 3a 2 2 3b

Global Warming Myths

Global Warming Has Stopped? Year  Mean Temperature (°C) Solar Irradiance (W/m 2 ) 2010

Volcanoes Put Out More CO 2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning Carbon (10 9 metric tons) Fossil Fuel Volcanoes

Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots Year  Mean Temperature (°C) Sunspots

Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots Year  Mean Temperature (°C) Sunspots

Global Warming is Caused by GCR Year  Mean Temperature (°C) Gamma Cosmic Rays

CO 2 Vs. Sea Level CO 2 Vs. Temperature Time (ybp) Relative Sea Level CO 2 (ppmv) Temperature Rohling et al Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.

Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands 2009 Temperature Changes Compared to

Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Year Temperature Change (°C) Northern vs. Southern Latitude Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Year Land vs. Ocean Land Ocean

Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft? Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of ± mm/yr 2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports

Changing Sea Levels Relative Sea Level (cm) Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5 Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland Global Temperature Change

How Much Temperature Increase? Global warming alarmists propose up to 9°C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C

Predictions Vs. Reality  T (°C) Date Annual Mean Global Temperature Change OBSERVED SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C Hansen, J Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Exponential Increase in carbon emissions Moderate reduction in carbon emissions Drastic reduction in carbon emissions Observed temps through 1988

Temperature Extrapolation  T (°C) Date

Conclusions Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?