China: Threat or Opportunity or Both. China, with Provinces.

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Presentation transcript:

China: Threat or Opportunity or Both

China, with Provinces

What We Know Already 1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat PRC vs. ROC 1972: Nixon to China 1979: US-China normalization

What is Taiwan? China: A Province of China US: A part of a united China, united in some undefined way and how that works is up to Taiwan and China as long as it is done peacefully Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

Changes since 1970s Taiwan democracy Lee Teng-huiChen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou

Chinese Economic Reform Deng Xiaoping

The Statistics

Shanghai, China

The Dilemma Economic reform: yes Political reform: No But… Economic Calls for ReformPolitical reform

Tiananmen Square 1989

June 4, 1989

Bush 41 View US USSR PRC

US Congress View Jackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act of 1974 “President determines” that a nonmarket economy nation “denies” or “imposes more than a nominal tax” on those who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the “products from any nonmarket economy country shall not be eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal trade relations)…and the President of the United States shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any such country.” Most Favored Nation status

Clinton View What is China? 1.Worst human rights violator on the planet 2.Biggest of the BEM 1993: China given a deadline of June 1994 for human rights improvement

The Battle: Public and Congressional debate Business lobbies ($$$) vs. Human Rights lobbies (pressure China) vs. Realists (stable relations) Within Administration National Economic Council, Dept. of Treasury and Commerce vs. State Dept, State Human Rights Bureau vs. Dept. of Defense, NSC Staff, State Dept. East Asian Bureau

Threat Opportunity Both

China’s Wealth

Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus,

South China Sea: OIL Ian Storey, Conflict in the South China Sea: China’s Relations with Vietnam and the Philippines, The Asia- Pacific Journal: Japan Focus,

Source: The Economist:

From: Annual Report to Congress Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009 ( pp 24-5http://

The Future 1.China as a regional rival 2.China as a peer competitor –A rival with a functioning economy 3.China as an ideological rival –Liberal-democracy vs. Soft Authoritarianism 4.Integrating China into the world and taming it –Responsible stakeholder 5.China anti-hegemony: “peaceful rise”

But…Economic Interdependence Chinese Trade (2010) From Chinese Ministry of Commerce , html html US Trade (2010) From US Census Bureau data; chart from trade/

Mutual Assured Bankruptcy? Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information 1.US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities 2.Other Investors/Savings Bonds 3.China 4.Japan 5.Pension Funds 6.Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds 7.State and Local Governments in US 8.UK 9.Banks 10.Insurance Companies 11.OPEC nations 12.Brazil 13.Caribbean nations 14.Hong Kong 15.Canada