1 International Space Consultants From Space Station Programs to Commercial Habitation Eric Dahlstrom 16 March 2015 Manfred Lachs Conference Montréal, Canada

2 International Space Consultants Summary Large government investment (>$150B) Before 2005: NASA opposed commercial space stations Now: Investment in commercial logistics and crew vehicles (5% ISS cost) US regulatory environment now encourages commercial space Russian history of commercial use of space stations Required elements in place for new commercial space stations Expect lots of activity in next few years Potential for large economic benefits Decouples space development from government investment

3 International Space Consultants Government Space Station Programs Salyuts, Skylab, Mir, ISS, Tiangong Salyut Skylab 1973 $11B Mir $5B ISS 1998-present $150B Tiangong present $3B Salyut/Almaz [1974 – 1986] Cost: est ($2015)

4 International Space Consultants Space Station Programs – Long History, Large Investment Salyuts, Skylab, Mir, ISS, Tiangong

5 International Space Consultants Space Stations – Contrast with other industries Pioneering technology – Expensive, high technology Commercial products – Mass-produced, low cost Autos Air travel Computers Internet Comsats Cell phones Human space travel Government Influence 2010

6 International Space Consultants Space Stations – Contrast with other industries Pioneering technology – Expensive, high technology Commercial products – Mass-produced, low cost Autos Air travel Computers Internet Comsats Cell phones Human space travel Government Influence 2010 NACA (March 1915)

7 International Space Consultants Rapid Transition from Government to Commercial Commercial Satellite Industry Now: $200B/year 1200 spacecraft

8 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Station Studies in 1980s and 1990s Industrial Space Facility (studies, proposed contract, ) Use of External Tanks (studies, 1988 White House directive, )

9 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Station Efforts – MirCorp Dec 1999 Commercial Crew April – June 2000

10 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Station Efforts – MirCorp Dec 1999 MirCorp Tether (blocked by ITAR)

11 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Station Efforts – MirCorp Dec 1999 – March 2001 Mir De-orbit 23 March 2001

12 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Station Efforts – Space Adventures Spaceflight Participants Dennis Tito (April 2001) Mark Shuttleworth (April 2002) Gregory Olsen (Oct 2005) Anousheh Ansari (Sep 2006) Charles Simonyi (April 2007, March 2009) Richard Garriott (Oct 2008) Guy Laliberté (Sep 2009) Sarah Brightman (planned Sep 2015) 6 Months of Cosmonaut Training

13 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Station Efforts – Logistics NASA COTS (<$1B), CRS ($3.5B); CCDev ($1.5B) SpaceX, RpK, Orbital; Blue Origin, Sierra Nevada, SpaceX, Boeing

14 International Space Consultants Commercial Users on ISS Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) NanoracksDeployment of Planet Labs spacecraft by Nanoracks

15 International Space Consultants Current Limitations – Resistance of U.S. Congress Government funded contractors distributed by Congressional district NASA chart for $6B Orion program Commercial Crew Program Administration request vs Congress budget

16 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Required Elements  Commercial launch  Logistics  Crew vehicles  Station design experience  Construction experience  Station operation experience  Government launch regulation  Crew vehicle regulation  Support for researchers to use commercial platforms  Export control regulations

17 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Elements Falling Into Place Station module design and construction experience

18 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Elements Falling Into Place Station operations experience

19 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Elements Falling Into Place Commercial Launch, Logistics SpaceX Dragon 2010 Orbital Cygnus 2013

20 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Elements Falling Into Place Commercial Launch, Logistics SpaceX Dragon 2010 Orbital Cygnus 2013 Jupiter/Exoliner CRS-2 Proposed 2017?

21 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Elements Falling Into Place Commercial Launch, Logistics, and Crew Vehicles SpaceX Dragon 2010 SpaceX Dragon v2 (2017?) Orbital Cygnus 2013 Boeing CST-100 (2017?)

22 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Elements Falling Into Place  Commercial launch  Logistics  Crew vehicles  Station design experience  Construction experience  Station operation experience  Government launch regulation  Crew vehicle regulation  Support for researchers to use commercial platforms  Export control regulations

23 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Proposed Projects Bigelow Aerospace Genesis I & II (2006, 2007) BA330 (2018?)

24 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Proposed Projects Bigelow Aerospace Genesis I & II (2006, 2007) BEAM on ISS (Planned Sept 2015) BA330 (2018?)

25 International Space Consultants Commercial Space Stations – Proposed Projects Bigelow, Excalibur Almaz, Orbital Technologies, etc. Genesis I & II (2006, 2007) BEAM on ISS (Planned Sept 2015) BA330 (2018?)

26 International Space Consultants Proposed Lunar Projects Golden Spike, Bigelow – Lunar, Space Adventures Deep Space Mission Space Adventures Deep Space Mission $150M/seat, 17 days Bigelow Lunar Base Concept Golden Spike Lunar Lander $1B, 2 persons

27 International Space Consultants Proposed Mars Projects Inspiration Mars, Mars One, SpaceX Mars SpaceX Red Dragon Mars One Concept Inspiration Mars Flyby Concept

28 International Space Consultants Proposed Space Mining Projects Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries, Moon Express, Shackleton Energy Corp Deep Space Industries Shackleton Energy Corp Moon Express (test flight Jan 2015) Planetary Resources

29 International Space Consultants A vision of the future ~150 Orbital Hotels ~5M passengers/year ($20k to LEO) (only first 2% of $40T market) Patrick Collins (2000), spacefuture.com

30 International Space Consultants Conclusion – Economic Benefits Large potential economic benefits of commercial space stations Need policy to support and encourage this new industry NASA is now supporting commercial space activities on ISS NASA contracts for ISS commercial cargo and commercial crew programs have helped create commercial vehicles Continuing pressures on NASA from U.S. Congress to not use commercial programs Regulatory environment in U.S. is favorable Markets and financial risk remain uncertain If financial return can be demonstrated, the elements are in place for a rapid expansion