Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014

RSA rainfall deviation (mm) from average

Example of El Nino

Example of La Nina

Forecast for October 2014 –different forecasts Different models eutral Neutral

eutral Forecast for December 2014 –different forecasts Different models Neutral

eutral Forecast for February 2015 –different forecasts Different models Neutral

Indian Ocean

Indian Ocean Dipole Index

L H H

L H H L

IOD Index forecast

WET DRY VERY DRY WET/ NORMAL

La Nina El Nino Neutral Neutral/ El Nino

WET DRY VERY DRY WET/ NORMAL La Nina El Nino Neutral Neutral/ El Nino

Normal effect of El Nino and Indian Ocean on rainfall

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area Relative Effect No effect

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Relative Effect No effect Eastern Summer Rainfall Area

JulAugSepOctNov Dec JunMay Apr MarFebJan Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present Relative Effect No effect Winter Rainfall Area

L H H L

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD Relative Effect IOD

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD and El Nino Relative Effect El Nino IOD

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on rainfall with Negative IOD and El Nino Relative Effect El Nino IOD Combined effect

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Relative Effect Dry spell Normal Combined effect No effect

IF POSITIVE MODE + EL NINO……

L H H

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on rainfall with Positive IOD High cyclone frequency Relative Effect No effect

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area Relative Effect No effect

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Relative Effect Drought Good start to season El Nino IOD

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Relative Effect Drought Good start to season Not expected for 2014/15 No effect

JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Relative Effect Dry spell Normal Combined effect No effect

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