-To insert a Zurich picture click on the "camera"-icon in the Zurich CI toolbar and follow the instructions. -To insert a picture from your personal files, click on the "Insert Picture from File" icon here on the right. Please make sure that this picture follows the Zurich core elements available on the "book"-icon in the Zurich CI toolbar. -To keep this neutral background, just leave it as it is. Note: this message will not be displayed in the presentation mode. Risk & Uncertainty: The Future of Public Services in Scotland 26 & 27 March 2015 Alan Ross - Zurich Strategic Risk & Resilience Practice David Forster - Zurich Municipal Risk Engineering UK UKGI

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd  To outline our view of some of the key trends and risks that will affect Scotland’s public services over the short, medium & long term  To get your views on the most significant trends and risks  To provoke thought and discussion about how resilient our public services are to these trends and risks Purpose 2

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd A trend is the general direction is which a factor is developing or changing; a pattern that could contribute to increasing the likelihood or impact of a risk. Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. These effects of may be negative or positive. Trends & Risks Working Definitions 3

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd The Changing Landscape for Local Government, CIVICA 2015 Service Users 4 “Generation Y is the self-service information generation…they want public services to be compatible with their lifestyle”

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1. Users demanding greater control to personalise or customise services 2. Expectation of ethical responsibility and transparency 3. Rise of chronic diseases & complex health needs 4. Rise of hyper connectivity 5. Increasing income disparity Service User Trends 5

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd National Records of Scotland, 2013 Political, Economic & Social 6 “Current projections suggest that the population of Scotland will rise to 5.78 million by 2037, and that the population will age significantly, with the number of people aged 65 and over increasing by 59%, from 0.93 million to 1.47 million”

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1. Continued squeeze on public finances & uncertain growth in UK & EU 2. Uncertain constitutional future: ‘home rule’, further devolution or independence 3. Ageing population 4. Meeting the climate change and sustainability challenge 5. Public debt levels 6. Asset and infrastructure maintenance Political, Economic & Social Trends 7

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal, 2014 New Service Delivery Models 8 “This deal provides an example of what can be achieved when all levels of Government, businesses, universities and the voluntary and community sector work together to promote economic growth.”

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1. Increasing need for an ‘always there’ service – availability and consumer choice 2. Sharing economy: co-production of services 3. City regions and place based resource allocation 4. Integrated service delivery and partnership working with other public service and social organisations 5. Commissioning and outsourcing ‘mission critical’ services New Service Delivery Model Trends 9

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd World Economic Forum Global Risks Report, 2015 Technology 10 “While these investments often deliver rapid improvements in efficiency and operational continuity, they also create unexpected new risks: bugs and brittleness”

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1. Cyber risk and information governance 2. Advanced analytics and the use of big data 3. Digital health technologies, telemedicine and wearable technology 4. Smart cities Technology Trends 11

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd CIPD, 2012 People & Leadership 12 “Local service organisations face an unprecedented people management challenge in engaging employees and maintaining their motivation against a backdrop of pay freezes, pension reform and job cuts. ”

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1. The skills needed to succeed today may be different from tomorrow 2. Increasing numbers of women in the workplace 3. Agile and flexible working practices 4. Decrease in graduate unemployment; competition for diminishing pool of talent People & Leadership Trends 13

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1. Which team is responsible for understanding and managing the short, medium and long term risks in your organisation? 2. Scenario planning for the key risks for your organisation 3. Challenge your risk and insurance partners, and colleagues: what more should we be doing to help you understand or meet the challenges you face? Solutions 14

© Zurich Insurance Company Ltd Thank you UKGI 15 Zurich Municipal is a trading name of Zurich Insurance plc, a public limited company incorporated in Ireland. Registration No Registered Office: Zurich House. Ballsbridge Park, Dublin 4, Ireland. UK Branch registered in England and Wales, Registration No. BR7985. UK Branch Head Office: The Zurich Centre, 3000 Parkway, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire PO15 7JZ. Authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. These details can be checked on the FCA’s Financial Services Register via their website or by contacting them on Our FCA Firm Reference Number is © Copyright Zurich Insurance plc All rights reserved. Reproduction, adaptation or translation without prior written permission is prohibited except as allowed under copyright laws. For more information visit on Twitterwww.zurichmunicipal.co.uk