Realizing the Potential of the Los Angeles Electric Vehicle Market Study authors: Dr. Jeffrey Dubin, Ross Barney, Annamaria Csontos, Jonathan Um and Nini Wu UCLA Anderson School of Management Presented by Juan Matute EV Project Director, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation

Outline Los Angeles as a leading national EV market Who will buy EVs? When will they buy them? Where will owners live? – Planning for nighttime charging – Locating public charge in commuting corridors and where home charging access is difficulty Challenges and potential pitfalls – Will the supply of EVs keep up with demand? – Will residents in multi-family housing be able to charge at night? – How to educate the public?

Los Angeles is poised to become one of the nation’s largest EV markets Electric vehicle sales are projected to compose 9% of total car sales in 2015 and 11.7% in 2020.

Consumer Survey 2,072 City of Los Angeles Residents Completed 37-question Survey Sponsored and Administered by Polimetrix/YouGov.com Included demographic & Conjoint questions

Who Wants to Buy EVs? Political Affiliation Educational Attainment  Initially: better educated, younger, more liberal  Later: All groups who consider purchasing new vehicles, especially those living in Multifamily Housing (Note that figures do not include effects of market constraints)

Constraint: Access to Charging  42% of potential non-single family owner adopters report lack of residential EV charger would prevent them from buying an EV  26% of potential early-adopters currently park on the street

Constraint: Will EV Supply keep up with demand? Estimated US EV supply Estimated LA City EV supply constraints,  Projection: Los Angeles EV demand outstrips supply until 2014

Market Sizing: Bass Diffusion Model Zip-code level approach – understanding of how relative concentrations of in neighborhoods influence purchase behavior.

Geographic Concentration of Nighttime EV Charging in 2015 (vehicles per sq-mile)

Geographic Concentration of Nighttime EV Charging in 2020 (vehicles per sq-mile)

Projected Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales in Los Angeles to 2020

Projected Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Base in Los Angeles to 2020

How our forecast compares

Geographic Concentration of Daytime EV Charging in 2015 (vehicles per sq- mile)

Geographic Concentration of Daytime EV Charging in 2020 (vehicles per sq- mile)

Increase in EV Sales per Household in 2015 from 50% Access to Residential Charging

Findings EV charging will be concentrated in the daytime, mostly in downtown and along the Wilshire corridor. Incentives and policy options will have little effect until supply constraints on EV sales are removed, potentially several years in the future. Increasing access to home charging will have a substantial impact on EV sales if implemented before EV supply constraints are lifted.

Importance of at home-charging Early to Mid-Adopters are particularly interested in incentives that facilitate home charger installation. Expedited permitting was important to 75% of Early to Mid- Adopters

Importance of charging access for residents of Multi-family housing Sixty-five percent of prospective early EV adopters are multifamily residents and renters, but these groups face major challenges in accessing home charging. Access to public charging options outside the home or building garage will be important for the 25% of survey respondents who park on the street.

Communicating the benefits of EV to families Enacting and communicating a competitive and easy-to- understand electricity rate plan for EV recharging will also incentivize greater EV adoption, particularly amongst Mid- Adopters. Over 70% of Mid-Adopters consider current gas prices to be an important factor when buying an EV compared to only 54% for Early Adopters. Greater public awareness about EVs and EV incentives would help elevate the perceived value of EVs, particularly amongst Mid-Adopters. Only 37% of respondents had at least some knowledge about EVs and only 29% were aware of available EV incentives.

Los Angeles is poised to become of the nation’s largest EV market Recommendations: 1.Streamline permitting & installation process with an actively involved utility 2.Increase charging access in multifamily housing. 3.Increase consumer education and marketing.

Next Steps Significant Challenges to expanding EVs into multifamily market Need new policies to govern on-street and public access EVSE Future Luskin Center research to address EVs in multifamily housing, and electric vehicle car share.