NZ commitment under the Kyoto Protocol – key issues for consideration from the perspective of the Montreal Protocol Janet F. Bornman, International Global Change Institute, IGCI University of Waikato IGCI UNEP: Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, EEAP Co-chairs: Janet F. Bornman, Xiaoyan Tang, Jan van der Leun Assessment of effects of O 3 depletion & climate change interaction on: Ozone and UV changes – Health – Terrestrial ecosystems Aquatic ecosystems – Biogeochemical cycles Air Quality – Materials Climate change: Future international action

Montreal Protocol 1974: emissions of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) were depleting the stratospheric ozone layer 1980s: thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica - “ozone hole” Thinning has occurred over every continent 1987: production of controlled ODS - more than 1.8 million tonnes/year 2005: - reduced to 83,000 tonnes

Montreal Protocol, MP 16 September countries signed the initial MP on substances that deplete the ozone layer Today, twenty years later 191 countries have ratified the MP -committed to meeting strict time-bound reduction obligations for each of the ca 100 substances controlled by the Protocol Today: 95% reduction achieved The work of the MP is not yet finished Predictions for full recovery to pre-1980 levels rely on assumptions of full implementation of the MP

“The Montreal Protocol is working. The concentrations of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere are now decreasing” Assessment Panels

Montreal Protocol, MP Major outcomes protection of health and the environment reductions achieved by the MP have supported efforts addressing global climate change and the Kyoto Protocol Reason: -most ODS are also potent global warming gases The ozone layer is projected to return to pre-1980 levels by 2050 to 2075 The USA estimates that by 2165, actions to protect and restore the ozone layer will have prevented 6.3 million skin cancer deaths and produced US$ 4.2 trillion in societal health benefits in the USA

Partnership with industry - invaluable more climate/environment friendly alternatives dissemination of information on new methods and technologies What can the Kyoto Protocol and amendments beyond 2012 learn from the MP? Assessment panels on science, environmental effects, technology and economic issues Key roles: - independent assessments - Responding also to specific inquiries by the MP Parties Multilateral Fund Since 1990, provided support to developing countries to enable them to meet their reduction obligations under the Protocol

The Role of Non-Governmental Organizations, NGO Non-compliance Regime Not often thought of as a partner! Includes an Implementation Committee - works together with countries facing difficulties to manage action plans with time specific benchmarks for helping countries come into compliance with the MP Definite deadlines for developed and developing countries Allowance for ”critical use exemptions”, but with time limits

NZ and the KYOTO PROTOCOL

Kyoto flaws: participation of developing countries No clear commitment to specific reductions, just agreements Reasons: also flawed or should be approached differently Priorities are economic growth and poverty reduction Industrialised countries consume far more energy, producing far more greenhouse gases Since the Industrial Revolution, Europe and North America have produced 85% of the human-induced CO 2 in the atmosphere today NZ International negotiations

Participation of all countries in the Kyoto Protocol First step: all developed countries on board in an alliance At present too short a time-frame to meet targets Targets/costs are unbalanced among countries (The EU can average emissions among its members) Industry needs to be firmly involved – in NZ and globally -major technology ”fixes”, tax benefits Well structured multilateral fund aimed at helping developing countries meet firm targets on time Key points for NZ to argue for

The Montreal Protocol Kyoto Protocol is working. The concentrations of CO 2 ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere are now decreasing