War Room 15 Dec 2011 US Decouples from the World.

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War Room 15 Dec 2011 US Decouples from the World

War Room Monthly macro discussion Using tools in context Feature for subscribers only Feedback - what should it to be?

US Decoupling US Economic Picture Improving Continued government support Scenarios that can kill the dream

Improving Picture - Labor million more people working in Nov 2011 than Nov US still down 6.2 million from peak employment (July 2007) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobless claims - Most recent = 366k - lowest since May was low 300s in mid 2007 Non-Farm Payrolls - Most recent = +120k - Up 14 consecutive months - leading indicator for S&P Levers tell the truth

Improving Picture – Retail + Auto Retail Sales - consumer confidence turning up - Strong holiday sales so far - CPI low = not just inflated retail #s - Macy’s earnings foreshadowed Car Sales - Rising 5 consecutive months - Pent up demand - Median car age – 8 years in years today - Ford reinstating dividend

Improving Picture - Housing Housing starts picking up Commercial Foreclosure rates dropping fast Toll Brothers just beat estimates Change in sentiment toward home builders by rating agencies Home Prices close to bottoming?

US Government Support Congress: Payroll tax cut likely to be extended Unemployment benefits likely to be extended Deficit spending of 10% of GDP = programs continue to get funding Fed O% interest rates through 2013 Ready to pursue further easing in Euro contagion USD Swap arrangements with other central banks (foreign currency liquidity swap lines) Executive No major drag on above initiatives Contrasts between US + Europe Austerity (Europe) vs No Austerity (USA) - Consumption not crippled - Programs and basics paid for - Sentiment – Not adding insult to injury ECB vs Fed - ECB not aggressive in cutting rates - ECB refusing to do QE - Minimal sovereign debt purchases Obama vs EU leadership Merkel opposing aggressive intervention UK effectively leaving European Union 17 fighting leaders vs 1 guy doing nothing Spanish firefighters protesting spending cuts in public services (14/Dec AP)

US Decoupling – Dream Killers Europe – counterparty risk Deflation – USD too strong for growth China hard landing – 50% of world econ growth Iran + Oil – oil shocks lead to recession

PRODUCT UPDATE + ROADMAP HiddenLevers

Some Features Added During 2011 April: Support Model Portfolios & Custom Branding May: Create Custom Scenarios + Portfolio Comparison July: Max Drawdown, Volatility, 2yr regressions added Aug: Historical Scenarios and 28 new indices added Sep: New reports, Macro Themes + Macro Snapshot Oct: Options/short support, portfolio sharing Nov/Dec: Portfolio Charting, report excel output

2012 Roadmap Scenario Hedging Wizard and Report Client-facing iPad app Fixed Income Support Inter-asset correlations Much more including your suggestions