We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byLenard Goodman
Modified over 6 years ago
Economic Outlook November 2010
Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education
Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster?
Sources of Economic Growth
Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries
Percent of Long-term Unemployed
Employment Weaker than Income
Federal Tax Withheld Employment Based
Household Debt Is Still High
History of Home Prices
Housing Affordability Index
Double-dip in Housing?
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
Distress Distressed Home Sales
Homeowner Vacancy Rate
Inventory of Existing Homes for Resale
State & Local Governments
S&L Budget Gaps
State and Local Government Payroll
State and Local Government Drag
Fiscal Stimulus No Ammunition
Budget Deficits % of GDP
Tax Increase? Current2011 Top Income Tax Rate35%41% Capital Gains Rate1520 Top Dividend Rate1539.6 Estate Tax055
Tax-cut Extension on Economic Growth
Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries
OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap
Low Inflation 1960s to 2000 Price Stability Prosperity
Unemployment Rate and NAIRU
Quantitative Easing Language L.T.Interest Rate Buy Bonds
Why QE? Short Rate Zero Lower Bond Yields Weaker Dollar
Money to Emerg. Mkts Stocks and Bonds
Why May Not Work? Problem: Tax & Reg. Currency War Protectionism
Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate
U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast Zero
Blue Chip Economic Forecasts
Double-dip Yes/No ?
No Double-dip? Tax Cuts QE2 Low Base
Major Inflation and Deflation
Tip Yields Real Inflation
NegatNegativive Negative TIP Yields
DDDD Deflation Around the Corner?
Lower Inflation Expectations
Why No Deflation Inflation Expectations Wage Rigidities Import Prices Monetary Policy
No Deflation Inflation Eventually Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes TaxesFees
Assessments of Government Economic Policy University of Michigan
90 Days after Mid-term (1922-2006) 8.5 percent
Mid-term Elections and S&P 500
Stocks and Election Cycle (1871-2005) FirstSecondThirdFourth 3.0%-2.7%10.1%7.5%
Who Controls? Unified GovernmentDivided Government 6.10% 11.10%
Key Issues Tax & Budget EnergyTrade China Currency Financial Reform Housing Finance Health care Immigration
Compromise or Not?
Best Combination Dem. White House Rep. Congress
Gridlock Is Good for Budgets
Rebalancing Global Trade
Internal Rebalancing Domestic Demand Budgets Finance/Credit
External Rebalancing Deficit Countries Increase Exports Surplus Countries Increase Consumption
Government Debt % of GDP
Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%
Over 100% Stunt Growth
Sovereign Borrowing Needs
Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain
Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.
Private Credit Growth
Housing Starts in China
Soft Landing in China?
China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast
Chinese Chinese Currency Undervalued
VC Unemployment Rate
VC Education and Health Jobs
VC Other Service Jobs
VC Retail Trade jobs
VC Financial Jobs
VC Leisure-Hospitality Jobs
DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com)
TIPS and 10-yr Treasury Yield Curves
Initial Jobless Claims
House Prices and Vacancy Rate
Housing Drag on Economic Growth
Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013.
Uncertainty and Volatility in Global and Domestic Markets Robert B. Engel President & Chief Executive Officer December 6, 2010.
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.
U.S. and Michigan Economic Outlook Passages Through a Sea of Uncertainty Robert A. Dye Chief Economist, Comerica Bank January, 2013.
Introduction to Business © Thomson South-Western ChapterChapter Economic Activity Measuring Economic Activity Economic Conditions Change.
Fiscal policy Changes in federal taxes and purchases that are intended to achieve macroeconomic policy objectives Fiscal Policy: Congress & President (Treasury/OMB)
Understand the role of business in the global economy. 1.
CAIJING ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2009 Forecasts and Strategies Beijing December 12, 2008.
Essential Standard 1.00 Understand the role of business in the global economy. 1.
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference.
2 Economic Activity 2-1 Measuring Economic Activity
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Principles of Business, 8e C H A P T E R 2 SLIDE Measuring Economic Activity Economic Conditions.
After the Recession: How Hot? David Wyss Chief Economist TVB New York September 8, 2004.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
Global Economic Outlook June Good News.
The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.
1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight Jackson, Mississippi September 14, 2010.
© 2021 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.