GCOS Adequacy Report – a WGII perspective Mike Harrison Head, WGII TSU

Commission for Climatology - Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) on Climate Applications, Information and Prediction Services (CAIPS) Nine Expert Teams, including ones on Heat/Health Warning Systems, Health Indices, Renewable Energy, Urban Climatology Rapporteurs on hydrology, agrometeorology Focus on climate variability, seasonal to interannual prediction, and applications of climate information/predictions

UNFCCC Article 2 To achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

UNFCCC Article 2 To achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

UNFCCC Article 2 To achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

GCOS Goals Characterise the state of the global climate system and its variability Monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions Support the attribution of the causes of climate change Support the prediction of global climate change Project global climate change information down to regional and national scales Characterise extreme events important in impact assessment and adaptation, and to risk and vulnerability

GCOS Goals Characterise the state of the global climate system and its variability Monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions Support the attribution of the causes of climate change Support the prediction of global climate change Project global climate change information down to regional and national scales Characterise extreme events important in impact assessment and adaptation, and to risk and vulnerability

Catastrophic Events 2002 – Swiss Re By Insurance loss By human lives lost Europe flooding US storms/tornados Europe storm Europe flooding US+ hurricane US+ tropical storm US storms/tornados France flooding US winter storm India social unrest Afghanistan+ earthquake Gambia ferry sinking India+ cold weather Nigeria explosion India heatwave China flooding India+ flooding Nepal flooding Egypt train fire

Adequacy Report Conclusions (Atmosphere) Studies on regional impacts of, and vulnerability to, climate change, especially changes in extreme events require national and regional climate observing networks at a finer scale, in addition to the GCOS baseline networks. When requested for the purposes of impact studies and extreme events, daily and/or hourly observations of the climate variables should be provided to the appropriate international data centre.

Adequacy Report Conclusions (Oceans) Adequately characterising extreme regional sea-level events requires that high frequency sea-level observations need to be taken and exchanged and historical data from tide gauges need to be provided to the international data centres. Capacity building efforts in developing countries for undertaking local sea- level change measurements can benefit the global system and foster needed regional enhancement.

Adequacy Report Conclusions (Terrestrial)

Surface variables in GCOS list River discharge Water use Ground water Lake levels Snow cover Glaciers and ice caps Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground Albedo Land cover (including vegetation type) Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation Leaf area index Biomass Fire disturbance

WGII will be using WEHAB W ater E nergy H ealth A griculture B iodiversity

WEHAB from Article 2 Perspective W ater E nergy H ealth A griculture – directly included in Article 2 B iodiversity– directly included in Article 2 In toto WEHAB (with additions) addresses Sustainable Development

AR4 Cross Cutting Themes The Science of Article 2 Sustainable Development Integration of Adaptation/Mitigation Water Regional Risk and Uncertainty Technology

WEHAB from CCT Perspective W ater - CCT E nergy H ealth A griculture B iodiversity In toto WEHAB addresses Sustainable Development (with additions) and Adaptation/Mitigation CCTs

Data Distribution For WGII data are distributed by the DDC – but in the main this provides scenarios and model results to impacts modellers The impacts side needs more detailed data sets on a variety of scales up to global, particularly for impacts assessment research – many analyses currently use locally available data only resulting in piecemeal outcomes

Conclusions 1 Goal 6 of GCOS is imprecisely expressed and has limited scope WEHAB provides a more focussed perspective for planning WGII data requirements Monitoring of a rather wider range of variables than current is necessary for full consideration of Article 2 An assessment of data requirements for WGII (and CCl) purposes is needed In general the non-managed systems considered by WGII have complex dynamics currently inadequately monitored

Conclusions 2 From the climatic point of view there is a clear need, as recognised by GCOS, for improved detail, both spatial and temporal From the applications-impacts-adaptation point of view there is a need for new data sets – these need not necessarily be the responsibility of GCOS directly but there is need for an integrated strategy that incorporates standards