Data-Driven Agent-Based Social Simulation of Moral Values Evolution Samer Hassan Universidad Complutense de Madrid University of Surrey

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

Samer Hassan SSASA Objective Study the evolution of Spanish society in the period Data-Driven Agent-Based Modelling Applying several Artificial Intelligence techniques

Samer Hassan SSASA The Problem Aim: simulate the process of change in moral values in a period in a society Plenty of factors involved Nowadays, centred in the inertia of generational change: To which extent the demographic dynamics explain the mentality change?

Samer Hassan SSASA The Problem Input Data loaded: EVS-1980 Quantitative periodical info Representative sample of Spain Allows Validation Intra-generational: Agent characteristics remain constant Macro aggregation evolves

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

Samer Hassan SSASA Design of Mentat Agent: EVS  Agent MS attributes Life cycle patterns Demographic micro-evolution: Couples Reproduction Inheritance World: 3000 agents Grid 100x100 Demographic model Network: Communication with Moore Neighbourhood Friends network Family network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Friendship Network

Samer Hassan SSASA Methodological aspects Data-driven ABM Microsimulation concepts Design with qualitative info Life cycle, micro-processes Introduction of empirical equations Life expectancy, birth rate, different probabilities Initialisation with survey data Validation with different empirical data

Samer Hassan SSASA Mentat in action

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

Samer Hassan SSASA Results

Samer Hassan SSASA Results It may arise new sociological knowledge: Demographic Dynamics are a key factor for the prediction of social trends in Spanish society

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

Samer Hassan SSASA Introduction of AI: Fuzzy Logic Why Fuzzy Logic? Social sciences are characterized by uncertain and vague knowledge Different concept than probability Old AdultYoungAge

Samer Hassan SSASA Fuzzification Attributes Similarity Friendship & its evolution Couples

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

Samer Hassan SSASA Introduction of AI: NLP Fuzzy logic helps for ABM qualitative input NLP helps for ABM qualitative output Experimenting with life-events generation: Output in natural language: life-story of a representative individual (Ex: hyper-inflation) Applications: NL format makes direct comparison with real stories possible Information very simple for any individual to understand Complementing explanations of quantitative research

Samer Hassan SSASA Quantitative & Qualitative Output Generation

Samer Hassan SSASA An example: part of the XML output

Samer Hassan SSASA An example: part of the life-story generated Rosa Pérez was born in 1955, and she met Luis Martínez, and she met Miguel López. She suffered a horrible childhood, and she had a very good friend: María Valdés, and she believed in God, and she used to go to church every week.... When she was a teenager, (...) she had problems with drugs, and she became an adult, and she met Marci Boyle, and while she was involved in a labour union, she met Carla González and she got arrested. She learned how to play the guitar, and so she became a hippy, getting involved in a NGO.... She met Sara Hernández, and she stopped going to church, and she met Marcos Torres, and she fell in love, desperately, with Marcos Torres, but in the end she went out with Miguel López, and she co-habitated with Miguel López, and she had a child: Melvin López.... She met Sergio Ruiz, and she separated from Miguel López, and she went out with Sergio Ruiz, and she co-habitated with Sergio Ruiz. She had a abortion, and so she had a depression, and she had a crisis of values. She was unfaithful to Sergio Ruiz with another man.... Nowadays she is an atheist.

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents The Problem ABM Mentat: Design ABM Mentat: Results AI: Fuzzy Logic AI: Natural Language Processing AI: Data Mining

Samer Hassan SSASA Introduction of AI: Data Mining Data Mining is the process of extracting patterns and relevant information from large amounts of data Design: Allows simplification, locates redundant attributes Pre-processing of empirical data (surveys): Clustering: selection of qualitative “ideal types” Post-processing of simulation output: Clustering: Shows non-visible patterns Comparison of patterns Different life-stories for each pattern Classification: evolution of “ideal types”

Samer Hassan SSASA Limitations & Future Work Enough demography! Overcome methodological limitation: implementing diffusion of moral values Quest for a proper cognitive model for this task...or forget about it definitely not BDI Improve other aspects: ABM design (Ex: friendship ties may weaken) Fuzzy inference Quality of biographies

Samer Hassan SSASA Thanks for your attention! Samer Hassan

Samer Hassan SSASA Contents License This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution You are free to copy, modify and distribute it as long as the original work and author are cited