CDR Gary Lazzaro LT Dustin Schultz LT Forest Mclaughlin OA 4202 Network Flows & Graphs, Fall 2013

Have you started vacation travel here? Why don’t people choose Amtrak for vacations?

The “Backstory”  Young people don’t “think” Amtrak for vacations Slow travel vs. plane High cost vs. car Inefficient routing  Improve Amtrak for vacations Top destinations are Disney World / Land Will new customers pick Amtrak if network is better?

Big Questions in this project  Can Amtrak compete vs. cars or vs. planes?  Where to design improvements in network?  Do improvement costs need to be paid back?  What are benefits to a passenger? How much time can be saved? What must a ticket price be?

The Amtrak “Math Model”  Objective 1: Minimize travel distance  Objective 2: Minimize amortized ticket cost  Both objectives subject to: Netflow(y ij )

Starting Cities SEA – Seattle, WA OAK – Oakland, CA LAX – Los Angeles, CA ORD – Chicago, IL DFW – Dallas, TX MCI –Kansas City, MO MSY – New Orleans, LA MCO – Orlando, FL JFK – New York, NY Destination Cities LAX – Los Angeles, CA MCO – Orlando, FL LAX MCO OAK SEA ORD MCI DFW MSY JFK

New Tracks Modeled St Louis, MO to Jacksonville, FL (Atlanta Line) Oklahoma City, OK to Kansas City, MO (OKKC Line) Albuquerque, NM to Dallas, TX (ABQ Line) New Orleans, LA to Jacksonville, FL (Sunset Limited) OK KC STL ATL NO JAX DFW ABQ

Measures of Effectiveness  MOE 1: Travel Time Train Time Chicago to Orlando: 22 hrs 37 min (model) Car Time Chicago to Orlando: 17 hrs +hotel stay (web)  MOE 2: Ticket Price (Per Person) Train Cost Chicago to Orlando: $ (model) Plane Cost Chicago to Orlando: $ (web)

Operator’s Problem  Operator is the Amtrak board of directors  Should Operator improve network? If yes: Which improvement is chosen? If no: Why not?  Which objective to choose? Minimize Distance Minimize Cost  What is break-even ticket price?

Travel Time v. Design Option

Travel Cost v. Design Option

Family Travel: Objective-Cost

Family Travel: Objective-Time

Model Analysis / Discussion  Two potentially competing objectives  New track cost only assessed when used No fee for trains not using new tracks  Train can be competitive with planes and cars  One network design option is clearly the best

Limitations of Analysis  More accurate trains speeds throughout US Did not model high speed rail  Exact rail distances / cost per train-mile  Model every rail station to include delay times  Accurate modeling of passenger loads Population / Demand model according to region Long vs. short distance passengers on same train  Increased number of start / destination cities

Questions?