AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Part 1: Introduction to AIACC regional study AS07 Part 2: What decision will you influence with the result of your project? What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this and what methods will you use? What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that you intend to influence? Part 3: Incorporate into framework

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Area of study: Mekong River Basin Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Climate Change Hydrological effects Possible effects on the study area Temperatures Precipitation Windspeed/direction River flows, runoff Frequency/magnitude of floods frequency/magnitude of droughts altered water temperatures altered water quality, modified nutrient content, increased salinity altered water levels, water table altered water availability, water storage capacity flood patterns : reduced/increased flooding, altered flood timing modified habitats, obstruction of migration routes

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Sector Potential Impact Adaptation Options AdaptabilityVulnerability* Agriculture Water resources reduced productivity rural / urban water supply constraints saltwater intrusion eutrophication management and policy changes Low Highly Vulnerable alternative water supplies water allocation and pricing reduce nutrient flows Low Highly Vulnerable

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Sector Potential Impact Adaptation Options Adaptability Aquatic ecosystems Human settlements river and inland wetland ecosystem changes wetland and biodiversity loss increased impacts of flood, storm surge, sea level rise physical interventions increased protected areas and wildlife refuge Low Highly Vulnerable relief aids zoning and disaster planning warning system Low Highly Vulnerable Vulnerability*

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Sector Potential Impact Adaptation Options Adaptability Human Health increased spread of vector-borne diseases quarantine, eradication, control Medium to Low Moderately Vulnerable * A Report of Working Group II of the IPCC. Vulnerability*

AIACC Regional Study AS07 What decision will you influence with the result of your project? Extending the length of policy planning to cope with the climate change Broaden the aspect of the policy development Various possibilities and frame of thought in policy development process Stakeholders involvement in the policy making process Multi-level and multi sector awareness on the impact from climate change Water Governance concept

AIACC Regional Study AS07 What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this and what methods will you use? Matching the timescale of the climate change study onto the policy planning process Using of various socio-economic scenarios from the study of the impact from climate change into the adaptation planning activities Engage all possible stakeholders into the policy development process Participatory method for vulnerability assessment Using the concept of the “Policy community” Vulnerability mapping as well as other scientific tools/analytical tools and methods Resource management under climatic and hydrological variability

AIACC Regional Study AS07 What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that you intend to influence? Various tools and methods Scenario generating tools Water management software GIS based vulnerability map Adaptation method/measurement Etc. Frame of thought Constructive way of building up socio-economic scenarios Development of the framework for the future study in V&A Necessity of the stakeholders involvement in the policy making process – stakeholder analysis and “Policy Community” Linking the scientific finding to the policy making

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Incorporate into framework

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Climate scenarios Climate Modeling Technique Land use/cover scenarios Hydrology Modeling Technique Runoff profiles Precipitation

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Water profile maps GIS tools Remote sensing tools Hot spot/Hot issues selection Possible vulnerable areas: Flood in the lower Mekong basin Impact on the rain fed agriculture Impact on the wetland – human livelihood/biodiversity Impact on water utilization Possible outbreak of certain decease Etc. Policy maker & stakeholders engagement - Stakeholders analysis - Build awareness of impact from CC - Capacity building - Vulnerability map Vulnerability potential maps

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Agriculture Risk analysis: sample case of flood – GIS tools, Scenario generator tools, Stakeholders analysis, Participatory method - Stakeholders participation, etc Demographic Infrastructure Etc. Different scenarios at different time Overlay on Flood Risk Map/Inundation map

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Coping range/ Adaptive capacity assessment Historical data analysis Participatory method Vulnerability Assessment Participatory method Multi-criteria analysis Vulnerability Maps GIS tools

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Adaptation Plan Development Participatory method “Policy Community” Adaptation Options Long term policy Multi-criteria analysis Cost-benefit analysis Etc.

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan): 1.14-km resolution monthly climate scenario (e.g., temperature, barometric pressure, rainfall) for the Mekong River Basin; km resolution monthly runoff, routed water discharge, water level and soil moisture for the Mekong Basin under different climate and land cover scenarios; 3. Hydrological simulation tool to enhance local capacity to develop local adaptation strategies and policies; 4. Regional maps of vulnerabilities of different water related aspects to climate and land cover changes;

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan): 5.Adaptation strategies and options for some communities and economic sectors will be affected by global climate change in Mekong River Basin; 6. Generalized adaptation strategies and options for countries in the Mekong River Basin to cope with Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change

Discussion Session Thank You