Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Scott's Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?

Advertisements

Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.

1 Carl Schreck History El Niño/La Niña Climate Modes.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.

PDO/PNA The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is an index derived from North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and it has a high correlation to.

1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial.

2012 TTA ICTP1 Trends and Decadal Variability in Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and.

Extratropical climate. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation?

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional climate: 1. Latitude day length, intensity of sunlight 2. Altitude 3. Mountain Barriers.

Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16 th December 2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy,

The dominant patterns of climate variability John M. Wallace Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.

Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010.

Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter Nate Mantua Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues)

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Planetary Scale Weather Regimes: ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): A global teleconnection, strongest in the Pacific, between the tropical oceans and.

CPC Monthly Climate Review Feb 2014 Jin Huang Outline: 1.Global Patterns 2.Extremes and US anomalies 3.DJF Climate Attributions 4.Forecast Verifications.

Atmospheric Variability Why is it so cold winter ? Why was it so hot summer 2010? Why was it so dry in 2007? Why was it so wet in 1998, 2009 (fall)?

Outline General concepts Teleconnection Patterns: What they are

The Caribbean Low Level Jet variability during August and September and its relation with the regional hydroclimate Ernesto Muñoz.

SNOPAC: Western Seasonal Outlook (8 December 2011) Portland, OR By Jan Curtis.

Rich Naden/Chuck Maxwell Southwest Area Predictive Services.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast WeatherBug Forecast April 15, 2010 Hurricane Bill, NOAA.

1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.

Water Year Outlook. Long Range Weather Forecast Use a combination of long term predictors –Phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) –Phase of Atlantic.

…WINTER PREVIEW …. I fight authority but authority always wins… ANOTHER ACTIVE STORMY WINTER (recent other Active & stormy Winters

1 Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Prepared by Climate Prediction Center, NCEP September 7, 2007

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

Climate Outlook – May 2010 El Nino Dissipates; Neutral or La Nina Conditions Expected by September.

Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest Review of 2 nd C20C Workshop for 3 rd C20C Workshop ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 21 April 2004.

Two-year oscillation of monsoon rainfall and global climate in the present decade Debasis Sengupta, Arathy Menon CAOS, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.

By Matt Masek March 22, Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three.

Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Winter of Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Monday December 7.

The Winter Winter Recap and Spring Outlook Jason Hansford Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Forecast Office Shreveport, LA.

Scott's Winter Forecast ! It’s like looking into a crystal ball… Seriously though; getting the forecast to verify seven days out is hard enough….why.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

Atlantic Hurricane Activity Composites of the WH Warm Pool ( ) Interannual variability of the AWP is large Large AWPs are almost three.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

El Niňo. El Nińo: A significant increase in sea surface temperature over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific that occurs at irregular intervals,

January 8, 2013 Steve Baxter Monthly Climate Review December 2012.

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2015 For more information,

Climate Outlook (MAY – SEPTEMBER 2017) JOSEPH BASCONCILLO

Seasonal Climate Outlook of China in Summer 2017

John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service

Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

Challenges of Seasonal Forecasting: El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada

Teleconnections in MINERVA experiments

EARTH SATELLITE CORPORATION’S HEATING SEASON WEATHER SEMINAR

IRI Multi-model Probability Forecasts

Teleconnections.

Features of climate system since 2016 winter

Question 1 Given that the globe is warming, why does the DJF outlook favor below-average temperatures in the southeastern U. S.? Climate variability on.

Objectively Chosen Analog Years

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle Lab

for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

The Climate System TOPICS ENSO Impacts Seasonal Climate Forecasts

2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast

Seasonal prediction of South Asian summer monsoon 2010: Met Office

Michael Erickson’s Quasi-awesome Expert* Winter Forecast**

A FIRST LOOK AT WINTER

Presentation transcript:

Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years The Technique Verification Analogs for Upcoming Winter The Forecast

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far…

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year …

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Climate Indices PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum

Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

Automate the Process Compare each previous year to this year… Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number… Sort “Goodness of Fit”… Print/Save results… Do this for multiple indices… Find “Consensus” analog years

Last Year’s

2011/12 Forecast Summary Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Temp: Precip: Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near Forecast:

2011/12 Forecast Summary Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Temp: Precip: Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Temp: Precip: Near Below Above Below Above Above Observed: Below Below Near Near Below Below

2011/12 Forecast Summary Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Temp: Precip: Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Temp: Precip: Near Below Above Below Above Above Observed: Below Below Near Near Below Below    

2011/12 Verification 4 “Hits” 6 One-category errors 2 Two-category errors

On to Next Winter…

Indices CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, and the QBO.

Composites December…

Composites January…

Composites February…

Composites March…

April May

Winter Forecast Graphics

Portland/Willamette Valley Month by Month…

Median

Median “Near”

Summary Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near

Cascades

Summary Climate Division 4 – North Cascades Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Below Above Above Below

23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches

23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches

23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches 4 of 6 Years Great! 2 of 6 Marginal

Questions? Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near Winter Forecast Graphics