Using Historical Analogs as Medium-Range Guidance for Severe Weather Episodes Chad M. Gravelle* and Charles E. Graves Saint Louis University - Department.

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Using Historical Analogs as Medium-Range Guidance for Severe Weather Episodes Chad M. Gravelle* and Charles E. Graves Saint Louis University - Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences * Current affiliation: CIMSS-University of Wisconsin / NWS Operations Proving Ground Jeffrey P. Craven NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI Alan E. Gerard NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office - Jackson, MS John P. Gagan NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office - Springfield, MO 2012 National Weather Association Annual Meeting – Madison, WI 8 October 2012

Began in 2008 after science meetings between SGF/LSX and SLU. Started with cold-season guidance and expanded to the warm season in Completely driven by a grassroots movement, no outside funding has ever been awarded. CIPS Analog Guidance History Since November 2009, the CIPS analog guidance has been mentioned in over 250 AFDs by 38 WFOs across the CONUS.

Early Analog Definition: If the current state of the atmosphere resembles a previous state then the two are termed analogs, and for a period of time the current state may evolve in a similar fashion as the past state (Lorenz 1969). Modern Analog Definition: Analogs are found using the perfect prognostic (“perfect prog”) approach. NWP forecast fields are used as a pattern-recognition tool in contrast to using analysis maps as a forecast tool (Root et al. 2007). What are Historical Analogs? GFS 30-h ForecastAnalog – /0000

Search the 31-yr North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset against the model forecast (NAM/GFS212-40km) for potential analogs. –3 months (±45 days from current day) –6 h temporal resolution –11,160 potential analogs (31 years, 90 days, 4 per day) Remove duplicate times by choosing the “best” analog over a 24-h period , , , Refine and rank (using the analog time and ±6h from analog time) the resulting analogs (prefect analog score is 21). Create “impact-based” guidance products. Fields: Field weights are in parenthesis. CIPS Analog Guidance – “How Do We Do This?” 300HGHT 300SPED 500HGHT 500SPED 850HGHT (3) 850SPED (2) PMSL (2) 850TMPC 850MIXR (3) 2mTMP (2) 2mDWP (2) AVGRELH PWTR 6 CONUS Domains

Impact Guidance –Precipitation and COOP Snow Mean and Exceedance Probabilities –Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities –Surface Temperature, Heat Index, and Wind Chill Exceedance Probabilities –Surface Wind Gusts Exceedance Probabilities –Surface Flight Rules Exceedance Probabilities (coming soon) Severe thunderstorm probabilities are developed from the mean of the individual analog Practically Perfect Forecasts (PPFs). Developed by SPC forecasters (Brooks et al. 1998), the approach of the PPF method is that it tries to “mimic” what a near-perfect forecast would look like. CIPS Analog Guidance – Guidance Based on Most Similar Analogs

Forecasters use deterministic and ensemble medium-range (days 4-7) NWP output to help formulate: Growing need for NWS partners to know the potential that a high- impact weather event may occur 4-8 days in advance. Identifying significant events is challenging. Historical analogs can be used as a “decision assistance tool”. Historical Analogs – Why in the Medium Range of the Forecast? CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook SPC Day 4-8 OutlookNWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

SPC Guidance – Valid on 14 April 2012 Day 4 Outlook Day 5 OutlookDay 6 Outlook SPC 24-h Storm Reports ending /1200 Day 2 Outlook

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast valid /0000 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast valid / mb Winds

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast valid / mb Isotachs

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid / h SPC Severe reports ending /1200

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid / h SPC Severe reports ending /1200

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid /0000 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF LL

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid / mb Winds

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid / mb Isotachs

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid /0000 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL

14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid /0000 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL Synoptic-Scale Features Based on GFS 120-h Forecast 24-h SPC Severe Reports ending /1200

Analog Guidance (F144-F072) – 14 April 2012 Based on 3-day ForecastBased on 4-day Forecast Based on 5-day ForecastBased on 6-day Forecast

SPC Guidance – Valid on 29 June 2012 Day 4 Outlook Day 5 OutlookDay 6 Outlook SPC 24-h Storm Reports ending /1200

GFS 108-h Forecast valid /1200 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL

GFS 108-h Forecast valid /1200 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL

LL LL GFS 108-h Forecast valid / mb Winds

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL GFS 108-h Forecast valid / mb Winds

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL GFS 108-h Forecast valid / mb Isotachs

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho GFS 108-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid /1200 GFS 48-h QPF ending /0000V144 LL LL

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho GFS 108-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid / h SPC Severe Reports ending /1200 LL LL

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho GFS 108-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid / h SPC Severe Reports ending /1200 LL LL

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid /1200 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid / mb Winds

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid / mb Winds

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid / mb Isotachs

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid /1200 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL LL

29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid /1200 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL LL Surface Features Based on GFS 108-h Forecast 24-h SPC Severe Reports ending /1200

Analog Guidance (F144-F072) – 29 June 2012 Based on 3-day ForecastBased on 4-day Forecast Based on 5-day ForecastBased on 6-day Forecast

Analog Guidance Individual Events (F144-F072) – 29 June July July August July July July 1980

F096 – The Day Before Analog Guidance /0000 F096 and F144 F144 – The Day After

Analog guidance has qualitative skill to provide situational awareness in the medium range of the forecast. Meteorological patterns are not created equal…some are more “predictable” and easier to identify than others. In the medium range, the analog guidance should be used with deterministic and ensemble model output to assist in identifying patterns that are historically associated with a weather impact. A “perfect” analog does not exist. Only a few, good quality analogs may exist for anomalous and record breaking events. Conclusions and Takeaways

Questions or comments? Questions