1. Basic Forecasting Tips
Phil Pascarelli & Zach Hiris

2. What is Forecasting?
Forecasting is NOT about looking at forecast models
Forecasting is about understanding the weather patterns, and using this knowledge to make an educated prediction
Forecasting takes time- it’s not easy

3. Characteristics of a Good Forecaster
Decisive, but cautious
Able to learn from mistakes
Desire to understand as much about Meteorology as possible
Computer, People, and Communication skills

4. H Where To Start L Start with the big picture
What are the big systems in the area?
Use SPC Mesoanalysis, Upper-air maps, etc.
Look at the current weather
Surface observations (i.e. Oswego’s Tower), radar, satellite
Look out the window! L H

5. Using Numerical Weather Prediction
Start at the top
Plot 300mb winds, 500mb heights/vorticity
What are the significant features on the map?
Identify ridges, troughs, etc
Work your way towards the surface... L H

6. Forecast Models- Mid-levels
The mid levels of the troposphere ( mb) can tell us a lot- if you know what to look for
700mb- Good for Lake-effect snow (a different BFB topic)
Can show lift (Vertical Velocity) needed for rain/snow/storms
Can also be used to see if there is a “cap” during severe weather season

7. Forecast Models- Mid Levels Cont’d
850mb is also an extremely useful tool
Can be used for lake-effect snow (why?), severe weather, and many other situations
On sunny days in the summer and early fall, 850mb temps can be used to predict surface high temperatures
Use temperatures as a basic rain/snow line

8. Forecast Models- Surface
Look for low/high pressure systems, fronts, etc.
Compare surface charts to mid/upper levels- see how every layer interacts with each other L

9. Forecast Models- Surface
Forecast models have a variety of surface maps
Anything from 10m winds, to soil moisture are available on some sites
It’s important to look at the basics for now- simple maps can tell you the most
Basics
2m Temperatures, Surface Pressure, QPF (Precipitation), 10m winds, etc.

10. Model Output Statistics (MOS)
MOS uses raw output from the forecast model (GFS/NAM), and uses statistical regression to determine temperatures, winds, probability of precipitation, etc.
Like the models themselves, MOS is not perfect, and is just a tool!
Goal as a forecaster is to recognize and adjust to errors from the models/MOS, rather than copying the numbers!

11. Model Ensembles
Most forecast models have an ensemble forecast in addition to the operational forecast model (GFS-GEFS, NAM-SREF, ECMWF-EPS)
Each ensemble member has small changes to the forecasting scheme
Good indicator of confidence in a solution

12. BUFKIT A specialized program developed by the National Weather Service
Used primarily for Lake-effect snow
Can also be used for severe weather, temperature forecasting, precipitation type diagnosis, etc.

13. Other Forecasting Tools
SHARPpy
Program which plots observed and forecast soundings
Similar to BUFKIT, but focused more on severe weather

14. Sources of Information
Current Observations
Weather Models
(E-Wall)
Bufkit
(Bufkit Data)
SharpPy