GREATER NEW YORK A GREENER Travel Demand Modeling for analysis of Congestion Mitigation policies October 24, 2007

Analyzing congestion mitigation measures  How would alternative policies impact:  Amount of driving in Manhattan (both trips and VMT)?  Mode shift of drivers to transit?  Air quality?  Revenue available for transit capital expansion?  How would alternative policies impact:  Amount of driving in Manhattan (both trips and VMT)?  Mode shift of drivers to transit?  Air quality?  Revenue available for transit capital expansion?

Analyzing congestion mitigation measures  Only a regional travel demand model like NYMTC’s Best Practices Model (BPM) can answer these questions  Regional Travel Demand Models: Show how regional traffic and transit flows respond to changing land use, infrastructure and toll policy conditions.  Modeling tools commonly used in EIS and site-specific studies  Microsimulations: Show how a fixed amount of traffic flows through a corridor or network.  Intersection level analyses: Show the detailed operation of individual intersections.  Only a regional travel demand model like NYMTC’s Best Practices Model (BPM) can answer these questions  Regional Travel Demand Models: Show how regional traffic and transit flows respond to changing land use, infrastructure and toll policy conditions.  Modeling tools commonly used in EIS and site-specific studies  Microsimulations: Show how a fixed amount of traffic flows through a corridor or network.  Intersection level analyses: Show the detailed operation of individual intersections.

Best Practice Model (BPM) Development  Developed by New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC), the metropolitan planning organization, to meet the federal requirements for long-range planning.  Air quality conformity analysis  Modeling impact of major infrastructure projects such as:  Tappan Zee Bridge and I-287 Corridor Study  Goethals Bridge Modernization DEIS  Developed by New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC), the metropolitan planning organization, to meet the federal requirements for long-range planning.  Air quality conformity analysis  Modeling impact of major infrastructure projects such as:  Tappan Zee Bridge and I-287 Corridor Study  Goethals Bridge Modernization DEIS

History of BPM  28 counties in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut  Model released 2002, updated 2005  State-of-the-art travel model  Only travel model in NY region  28 counties in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut  Model released 2002, updated 2005  State-of-the-art travel model  Only travel model in NY region

Key inputs  Highways  Arterial streets  Transit  4,000 zones for trip origins and destinations  Highways  Arterial streets  Transit  4,000 zones for trip origins and destinations

Key inputs  2005 population and employment by zone  2005 transit network  Tolls and fares and other travel costs  Travel diary survey  11,264 households  27,369 persons  90,764 trips  2005 population and employment by zone  2005 transit network  Tolls and fares and other travel costs  Travel diary survey  11,264 households  27,369 persons  90,764 trips

BPM structure and processes  Populates each zone with households and jobs  Based on:  2005 population and employment  Populates each zone with households and jobs  Based on:  2005 population and employment

BPM structure and processes  Creates daily “tours” and time period for each trip within the tour  Purposes:  Work  University  School  Household maintenance (errands)  Discretionary activities (leisure)  Work-based (meetings, etc)  Based on:  Household characteristics (age, income, car ownership, etc.)  Employment levels  School enrollment  Travel diary survey  Creates daily “tours” and time period for each trip within the tour  Purposes:  Work  University  School  Household maintenance (errands)  Discretionary activities (leisure)  Work-based (meetings, etc)  Based on:  Household characteristics (age, income, car ownership, etc.)  Employment levels  School enrollment  Travel diary survey  Time periods:  AM Peak (6am-10am)  Midday (10am-4pm)  PM Peak (4pm-8pm)  Night (8pm-6am)  Time periods:  AM Peak (6am-10am)  Midday (10am-4pm)  PM Peak (4pm-8pm)  Night (8pm-6am)

BPM structure and processes  Determines destinations for each tour  Based on:  Employment locations  Other destinations (shopping, etc.)  Travel time, fares, congestion, tolls involved in reaching each destination  Determines destinations for each tour  Based on:  Employment locations  Other destinations (shopping, etc.)  Travel time, fares, congestion, tolls involved in reaching each destination

BPM structure and processes  Determines mode for each leg of tour  SOV  HOV2, HOV3, HOV4+  Walk to transit  Drive to transit  Based on:  Transit service levels  Fares, tolls, parking and other driving costs  Travel diary survey  Determines mode for each leg of tour  SOV  HOV2, HOV3, HOV4+  Walk to transit  Drive to transit  Based on:  Transit service levels  Fares, tolls, parking and other driving costs  Travel diary survey  Walk to commuter rail  Drive to commuter rail  Taxi  School bus  Non-motorized  Walk to commuter rail  Drive to commuter rail  Taxi  School bus  Non-motorized

BPM structure and processes  Determines route  Based on:  Transit frequency  Travel time  Congestion  Determines route  Based on:  Transit frequency  Travel time  Congestion

BPM outputs  County-to-county trip flows  Trip purpose  Time of day  Mode  Traffic speeds and vehicle miles traveled (VMT)  Air quality based on changes in vehicle volumes  Results validated to:  Ground counts of traffic volumes  Transit ridership  County-to-county trip flows  Trip purpose  Time of day  Mode  Traffic speeds and vehicle miles traveled (VMT)  Air quality based on changes in vehicle volumes  Results validated to:  Ground counts of traffic volumes  Transit ridership

BPM outputs

 6.3% reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in charging zone  7.2% increase in speeds in zone  11.3% reduction in vehicle trips entering the charging zone  6% -12% reduction in key pollutants and greenhouse gases  6.3% reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in charging zone  7.2% increase in speeds in zone  11.3% reduction in vehicle trips entering the charging zone  6% -12% reduction in key pollutants and greenhouse gases