State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Strategic Operational Risk Analysis and Mapping Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire.

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Presentation transcript:

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Strategic Operational Risk Analysis and Mapping Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire Officer (ret.) International Strategy Fire Service College, United Kingdom - Robert McKee1

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Overview Define Risk How does it apply to us? Enterprise vs. Strategic Risk Management Disaster Risk Reduction Model How does this benefit us? Case Studies Discussion - Robert McKee2

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk Defined …the possibility that something bad or unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will happen…. - Robert McKee3 Source: Merriam-Webster Dictionary

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk? Disasters Tornados Storms Hurricanes Earthquakes And… - Robert McKee4

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk? Everyday Office Food Allergies Water Systems Here today And… - Robert McKee5

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk in Emergency Services Policies Procedures Operational Guidelines Safety Officers After-Action Reporting Lessons Learnt Training - Robert McKee6

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 What else? What systems can help us beyond the “obvious” risk? How else can we apply measures to reduce or identify risk? How do we address all potential risk? Can we take this too far? Are we adverse to all risk? - Robert McKee7

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Theory Enterprise Risk Management High level view to avoid risk Internal protection against risk Risk identification and classification A view in time Strategic Risk Management Begins with a vision of the ideal future Improve awareness and stakeholder involvement Adaptive approach Trending and adaptable - Robert McKee8

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March Robert McKee9 Likelihood Hazard (Impact) Measurement

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Measurement - Robert McKee10

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk Paradigm? Business Community(s) Governments Personal What else? - Robert McKee11

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Disaster Risk Reduction USAID Purpose Intent Value - Robert McKee12

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Disaster Risk Reduction Hazard – What – Flooding, Earthquakes, General Crisis Vulnerability – Susceptibility – Magnitude Coping capacity – Infrastructure – Skills and Resources - Robert McKee13

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Hazard Vulnerability Capacity - Robert McKee14 Disaster Risk (R) = Vulnerability (V) x Hazard (H) Capacity (C) Source: United States Agency International Development (USAID) Modeling

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Hurricane Katrina Critical Factors – Lack of action locally – Late decision making – Socio-Economic Issues – Politics – Security & Corruption – Media – Change in orders – Reality – “Normal” – Funding - Robert McKee15

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Space Shuttle Columbia Who’s in Charge? Priorities Politics Security - Robert McKee16

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Hurricane Ike September 9, 2008 September 15, Robert McKee17

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk Modeling Flood Planning – Demographics – Susceptibility – Social/Economics – Resources – Mitigation - Robert McKee18

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Factors - Robert McKee19

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Risk Modeling History (Areas prone to flood) Topography Geology Known risk areas Planning Responsibilty Mitigation - Robert McKee20

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Application - Robert McKee21 Risk Assessment Actions/Mitigation Risk Management

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Measurement Can we plan for everything? Education Public information Media Assessment Exercises Extremes… - Robert McKee22

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Challenges Size Scope Factors – Social – Economic – Political Impact Longevity - Robert McKee23

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Case Study Hurricane “Ike” Date: September 1, 2008 – September 14, 2008 Total fatalities: 195 Highest winds: 143 mph (230 km/h) Lowest pressure: 935 mb Category: Category 4 Hurricane (SSHS) Damage$37.5 billion (2008 USD) - Robert McKee24

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Ike’s Center 4:00 PM CDT Hurricane (CAT 1)Hurricane (CAT 1) 90 MPH Sustained / Higher Gusts90 MPH Sustained / Higher Gusts 23.9 N / 85.3 W (225 MI WSW of Key West)23.9 N / 85.3 W (225 MI WSW of Key West) 957 MB / IN957 MB / IN 8 8 MPH - Robert McKee25

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March Robert McKee26

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March Robert McKee27

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 INTENSITY: Range from Mid-Cat 1 to borderline Cat Robert McKee28

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Hurricane Ike (Resource staging by track) NHC Advisories Sept Sheltering Community Staging Area Evacuating Area Wednesday, Sept. 10, 4 AM Tuesday, Sept. 9, 4 AM Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 AM Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 PM Friday, Sept. 12, 4 AM SAR Staging and movement Source: U.S. Geological Survey and USGS library. Note: 367 Miles of Coastline $7 Billon in Economic Value - Robert McKee29

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 San Antonio Expected Hurricane Ike Impact Tropical Storm force winds – Duration: hours – Onset: MID to 3AM SAT Sustained MPH/G60mph Sustained MPH/G60mph – Cessation: 6PM to 9 SAT Hurricane-force winds – Sustained hurricane-strength winds not expected – Hurricane-strength wind gusts possible: Noon to 7PM SAT Rainfall – Amounts: 3-6”isolated 10 – Amounts: 3-6” with isolated 10” – Time Frame: Heaviest rains from 7AM SAT – 1PM SUN San Antonio - Robert McKee30

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Landfall overnight early Sat. morning Matagorda Bay High-end Cat 3 hurricane: 125 MPH Sustained 155 MPH Gusts - Robert McKee31

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Tropical Storm Force Winds >50kt Winds Hurricane Force Winds - Robert McKee32

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Lessons Learnt Risk is evident Risk Assessment (Identification) Best Models will challenge Agility/Flexibility Sustainment/Resilience Plan Execute - Robert McKee33

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Measurements Post event assessment Risk change New Risks Change factors – Short-term – Long-term Exercise/test/assessment - Robert McKee34

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Discussion Questions Discussion Input - Robert McKee35

State of Kuwait 3rd Intl Fire & Safety Conference & Expo 4-6 March 2014 Thank you Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire Officer (ret.) International Strategy Fire Service College, United Kingdom The Fire Service College Moreton in Marsh Gloucestershire GL56 0RH Tel: Web: Robert McKee36