William Solecki City University of New York – Hunter College Climate Change, Extreme Events, and Hurricane Sandy: From Non-Stationary Climate to Non-Stationary Policy William Solecki City University of New York – Hunter College

Hurricane Sandy, 28 October 2012 Source: NOAA

2013

Source: PlaNYC 2013

NYC Panel on climate change

Storm Surge – Now and Future

Source: PlaNYC 2013

Source: PlaNYC 2013

Source: PlaNYC 2013

Source: PlaNYC 2013

 Source: New York City Panel on Climate Change (2014)

New York City Climate Adaptation Process Mayor or City Official High-Level Buy-In Critical Infrastructure Coordinating Role City-wide Sustainability Office Stakeholders City Agencies Regional Authorities Private Corporations Expert Knowledge Providers University scholars and private sector experts Social, biological, and physical scientists Legal and insurance experts Risk management professionals E Stakeholder Task Force T Expert Panel P W C Climate Risk Information Adaptation Assessment Guidelines Climate Protection Levels Integration across Sector-specific Working Groups Energy (E) - Transportation (T) Policy (P) -Water & Waste (WW) - Communications (C) Source: NPCC, 2010

PlaNYC 2013 – Released 11 June 2013

NYC Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency Addresses how to rebuild New York City to be more resilient in the wake of Sandy but with a long‐term focus on: 1) how to rebuild locally; and 2) how to improve citywide infrastructure and building resilience A comprehensive report in June 2013 addresses these challenges by investigating three key questions: What happened during and after Sandy and why? What is the likely risk to NYC as the climate changes and the threat of future storms and severe weather increases? What to do in the coastal neighborhoods and citywide infrastructure

Freeboard  “Freeboard” is the practice of elevating a building’s lowest floor above the Base Flood Elevation (BFE) by a small additional height, typically 1 to 2 feet above FEMA minimum height requirements, depending on building type (2 feet for single and two- family residences and 1 foot for most other buildings). The benefits of freeboard include an additional margin of safety to protect against more severe storms and increased future flood risks from rising sea levels. Additionally, FEMA recognizes that freeboard significantly reduces flood risk and provides substantial reductions in flood insurance premiums. Freeboard

Disaster Response and How Might Hurricane Sandy Points to Wider Transitions and Transformations After a disaster, response typically is focused on addressing failures and cost-benefit calculations in the context of future risk probability Hurricane Sandy response also is often discussed in the context of climate change Movement from disaster recovery to disaster rebuilding and resilience Change in conceptualization of extreme events From discrete acute events to events as part of a chronic process Looking into future dynamics as much as the present and past The question is being asked whether climate change impacts will be like other urban environment-related crises

Final Considerations Tying policy directly to changing climate science Extreme Rain Event – Long Island NY August 2014 Tying policy directly to changing climate science Building flexible adaption directly into the legal and regulatory framework Opportunities for transformation – extreme events Solution space – policy, regulation, and codes; translation into the realm of engineering and equity…next steps Intense rainfall – panhandle Florida April 2014

Thank You Recent References Solecki, W. and Rosenzweig, C. (2014). Climate change, extreme events, and Hurricane Sandy: From Non-Stationary Climate to Non-Stationary Policy. Journal of Extreme Events. 1(1): 5-25. Rosenzweig, C. & Solecki, W. (2014). Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city. Global Environmental Change 28: 395-408.