Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres du masque 1 From Research to End-users Services at Meteo-France Isabelle DONET / METEO-FRANCE End-Users Services Department (Béatrice Pouponneau Deputy Manager for General Studies & Consultancy Grégoire Pigeon Manager for Agro meteorological services) World Weather Open Science Conference 18 th of August 2014

2 Summary  The “End-Users Services” department of METEO-FRANCE  Illustration of 4 outstanding past or imminent users services for decision making ISOP system (grassland yield assessment) Explore 2070 project (climate change on water ressources) AFClim prospective (adaptation scenarios for Agriculture and Forestry) Acclimat future operational platform and use (Urban Heat Islands)  Upcoming perspectives for end-users in the near future

3 End-Users Services at METEO-FRANCE  Close collaboration and relationship with: The research center of Meteo-France The end-users to know, understand and fulfill their needs in weather sensitive domains  Providing integrated applications or high-value products using advances from the latest research  Dedicated department in METEO-FRANCE since 1997 including: A specialized Agro meteorology division A specialized Environment, Air Quality and Health division A consultancy and studies division (main users/topics: Army, Energy suppliers, downscaling methods and impacts of climate change)  Coordinating a network of 11 regional consultancy offices (close to the users) to share methods, tools and workload 7 in the metropolitan area 4 overseas

4 ISOP : fodder yield anomaly assessment  Operational system for public authorities (the French Ministry of Agriculture): To support their monitoring and decision-making activities On the production of grasslands At the level of small regions in France  Close collaboration between INRA (French Agronomy Research Center), METEO-FRANCE and SCEES (Department of Statistics of the Ministry)  Conception and development of an integrated platform: Complex meteorological data handling with downscaling methods INRA crop yield model STICS, 2009 version Soil characteristics of grassland areas Regional practices from SCEES for 8600 parcels  Outputs : statistics, indexes & graphical outputs

5 ISOP scheme and outputs Results available on the Ministry website in real-time: Agreste Agreste Reference and historical Data Meteo France interpolated data SCEES « practices » data (8600 parcels) Soil data of INRA Scale 1/ Real-time data INRA Crop model

6 Explore 2070  Impact of climate change on underground water resources and river flows in France (mainland and overseas) by 2070  At the request of the French Ministry of Ecology  To inform government authorities and private operators in the water sector of the condition of water resources in the future Between the reference period and the period For mainland France and overseas departments On the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario Seven general circulation models regionally downscaled Two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J)  Main results: Increase in air temperature between +1.4°C and +3°C Significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country scale Strong decrease in summer low flows in most basins

7 Annual mean flow - 40 à - 50 % [+- 20 %] - 30 à - 50 % [+- 20 %] - 20 à - 30 % [+- 20 %] Possible evolution between 1961/90 and 2046/65

8 AFCLIM prospective  Exploration of adaptation scenarios for agriculture and forestry to imagine solutions enabling farmers and foresters to mitigate climate change  Group of experts created by the Center of studies and strategic foresight of the French Ministry of Agriculture  14 tangible case studies (winegrowing, livestock, industrial crops, forests, …)  Timeframes for agriculture through 2050 and for forestry through 2100 (longer silvicultural cycles)  Elaboration of synthesis sheets focused on the concrete and local aspects of climate change, in order to present adaptation initiatives that farmers and foresters will be able to manage (cycles lengths, yields, water, crop risks)  All outputs available on the government website: AFCLIMAFCLIM

9 AFCLIM prospective

10 Urban Heat Island (UHI) operational tool  Need of modelling and consultancy facilities to support public policies aiming at reducing urban heat in a changing climate  Current action to transform the demonstrator done by he research center during the Acclimat project (Toulouse city) in an operational “generic” system Simplification of the complete research version Web version available for our internal network of regional consultancy offices Suitable for others cities  In a short term, a wide consultancy offer on UHI: Study for a few days: state of the art, relevant cases Study of some weeks: qualitative analyses of the UHI, campaigns, 1D et 2D simulations forced by downscaled climatic projections Project on several months: 4D mesoscale simulations, city urban modification  Marseille city illustration

11 Marseille EUROMED project Amenagement Guide Map

12 Upcoming perspectives for end-users  200-years (present and in 2050) “constant climate” simulation For energy suppliers of insurances To study variability and extremes  Air quality tools and applications UV indexes declined from the last version of Mocage Air Quality model Dispersion studies for authorities (cities) or pollutant industry  Real-time nebulosity and rainfall assessment for Internet satellite reception stations (based on nowcasting model) to anticipate lacks of reception (due to weather) and manage such networks  Ensemble forecasts to issue flood warnings in the south-east of France (Cévennes) through a multi-model approach Integration of AROME meteorological model (50 members), soil moisture ISBA model, ANTILOPE radar-gauge rainfall grid estimates  A new integrated crop system in partnership with the Arvalis Institute using seasonal forecasts

Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres du masque 13 Thank you for your attention Any question?