1. CERFACS: Christian Pagé Laurent Terray Météo-France: Philippe Dandin Pascale Delecluse Serge Planton Jean-Marc Moisselin Maryvonne Kerdoncuff High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France Climate change information services for decision making and adaptation Workshop KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands - 10-11 Sep 2009

2. CERFACS Météo-France 2/11 Description Objective: Provide climate change scenarios data Vulnerability studies of human activities and environment Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts, on water resource management and land use,... Motivations: Quite rapid increase in the number of data requests in the last few years Consequences: a more organized way of providing data to users is clearly needed Re-focus research teams on their main activity

3. CERFACS Météo-France 3/11 Example Use Case EP-Loire project example Etablissement Public Loire (6 Regions, 16 Departments, 18 cities, etc.) Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts in the Loire River Basin Stakeholders and basin managers Data request Call of opportunity to the French scientific community Let climate research groups choose and provide climate change scenarios To be used by other research groups working in hydrology, sociology,...

4. CERFACS Météo-France 4/11 Production Météo-France SAFRAN Regional re-analysis (1970-2007) (7 daily or hourly parameters, France 8-km resolution) Dynamical/statistical downscaling: Daily Temperature & Precipitation, 50-km Weather-type statistical downscaling: 7 daily/hourly parameters, 8-km Several SRES scenarios; several models (ARPEGE and IPCC); 1950-2100 What is provided to research groups: modelers and study teams Data in ASCII format Selection of data points over the Loire Basin, for present and future climate (1950-2100) Daily and hourly timestep (depending on specific modellers’ needs) Example: EP-Loire Use Case Reports from research groups will be delivered to stakeholders

5. CERFACS Météo-France 5/11 Examples of output in reports for stakeholders Example: EP-Loire Use Case Source: ReXHySS project preliminary results Actual 2050 2100 Monthly Mean of Seine river flow Actual Obs Seine river flow evolution uncertainties Jan Dec 2050 2100 Hydrological models Mean duration (months) Area % of France France Past Droughts 20 5 40 Source: Météo-France CLIMSEC project Courtesy of J.-P. Vidal

6. CERFACS Météo-France 6/11 Current Status Data requests are mostly done by phone calls and emails Data is mainly delivered through direct data transfer means (ftp,...) Extraction is not fully automated Expertise is on a case by case evaluation Meetings, round tables, email and phone support Most of users have a great need in guidance (uncertainties) Direct data is delivered to modelers & impact study teams Stakeholders need reports and indicators  Several current initiatives to automate the data requests/delivery  Important: must have an expert team for guidance

7. CERFACS Météo-France 7/11 Related initiatives DRIAS objective: Provide Access to French Regional Climate data and products for Impact and Adaptation of our Society and Environment Co-Funding: French Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development Coordination: Météo-France (Climatology department) Partners Météo-France GAME (Research Group for Meteorological Modelling) IPSL (Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute) CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique) Project Duration: 2 years (Sep 2009 - Sep 2011) Aims: Give access to future climate data produced with Several Greenhouse gas emission scenarios Several Regional climate models Several Downscaling methods A Standard Format Easy access Expertise!  Quantify several uncertainty sources

8. CERFACS Météo-France 8/11 Related initiatives DRIAS Interface will be based on Météo-France Climathèque This system allows access to different climate products and services Generic system with internet up to date technologies Easy to add new services Select the period Select the area Select the meteorological parameter Select the product format Select the scale of colours

9. CERFACS Météo-France 9/11 Related initiatives DRIAS Products: many ideas, few realizations, no industrialisation Drought Gaussen Climatic Diagram (Rainfall- 2.Temperature Diagram) Boxplot to show uncertainties Larger uncertainties for 2081-2100 vs 2046-2065

10. CERFACS Météo-France 10/11 Related initiatives IS-ENES: InfraStructure for the European Network for Earth System. IS-ENES will develop a virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (vERC) Funded by EU FP7 20 partners, led by IPSL WP11/JRA5: Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community Provide a prototype for a web service interface Bridge the gap climate modelling community climate impact community decision makers  Develop adaptation and mitigation policies IS-ENES Global Climate Scenarios DRIAS Downscaled Regional Scenarios France Regional Level International Level

11. CERFACS Météo-France 11/11 Conclusions 1.Organisation of response to climate scenarios requests is taking shape  More collaboration between actors and requests at the France national level 2.Expertise teams for stakeholders and modellers is essential  Free climate products access without an expertise team is a bad idea  Need for contacts after products delivery should not be underestimated 3.Some European collaboration is taking place within the IS-ENES project Questions?