Climate change and Environmental Degradation Risk and Adaptation assessment Step 4 Risk Assessment Identifying the most urgent hazards & vulnerabilities to our programmes

Prioritise hazards... a risk based approach to prioritise actions PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D and E) A Location/ Sector B Projects C CC and/or ED impacts D Sig E Lik F Rsk G Adaptation option 1. Livelihoods Microcredit enterprises Erratic rainfall could mean enterprises fail Predicted landslides mean communities may need to relocate Agriculture Tree nurseries Rapid run-off is reducing soil quality Changes in rainfall mean tree pests breed faster; trees are dying. Likely to get worse Alley cropping Trees may be susceptible to tree pests, preventing them from protecting crops All sectors All projectsThe risk of flooding could lead to beneficiaries’ homes being destroyed. This may affect their involvement in the project New sector New projectPotential impacts associated with this project 212

Review project portfolio Write all sectors and project types you undertake in columns A & B PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D and E) A Sector(s) B Projects C CC and/or ED impacts D Sig E Lik F Rsk G Adaptation option 1. Livelihoods Microcredit enterprises 2. Agriculture Tree nurseries Alley cropping 3. All sectors All projects 4. New sector New project

Identify Hazards Refer to Impact & Options Table Likely impacts of climate change and environmental degradationAdaptation option Land Land degradation  Desertification eg due to overgrazing, overintensive farming, extensive logging.  Soil erosion eg caused by overintensive farming and grazing.  Land degradation due to growth or movement of populations.  Deforestation eg due to logging, land clearance – including through burning forest and shrubs.  Land degradation can result in choking water run-off channels and flooding.  Loss of biodiversity eg due to overintensive farming or changes in climate resulting in changes in breeding or migratory routes for flora and fauna. Maximise biodiversity, soil fertility & land use  Floating gardens.  Crop rotation to maintain soil quality, minimise erosion (reducing the risk of desertification) and plant less water-dependant crops in drier years (rotate legumes and other crops).  Community forest management and reforestation.

Identify Possible Impacts Enter identified hazards into risk assessment table PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D and E) A Sector(s) B Projects C CC and/or ED impacts DEFG Adaptation option 1. Livelihoods Microcredit enterprises Erratic rainfall could mean enterprises fail. Predicted landslides mean communities may need to relocate. 2. Agriculture Tree nurseries Rapid run-off is reducing soil quality. Changes in rainfall mean tree pests breed faster; trees are dying. Likely to get worse. Alley cropping Trees may be susceptible to tree pests, preventing them from protecting crops 3. All sectors All projects The risk of flooding could lead to beneficiaries’ homes being destroyed. This may affect their involvement in the project. 4. New sector New project Potential impacts associated with this project

Assess risks Discuss & agree significance & likelihood. Calculate risk. PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D and E) A Sector(s) B Projects C CC and/or ED impacts D Sig E Lik F Rsk G Adaptation option 1. Livelihoods Microcredit enterprises Erratic rainfall could mean enterprises fail Predicted landslides mean communities may need to relocate Agriculture Tree nurseries Rapid run-off is reducing soil quality Changes in rainfall mean tree pests breed faster; trees are dying. Likely to get worse Alley cropping Trees may be susceptible to tree pests, preventing them from protecting crops All sectors All projectsThe risk of flooding could lead to beneficiaries’ homes being destroyed. This may affect their involvement in the project New sector New projectPotential impacts associated with this project 212

Prioritise hazards Rank the risks/ prioritise the hazards PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D and E) A Sector(s) B Projects C CC and/or ED impacts D Sig E Lik F Rsk G Adaptation option 1. Livelihoods Microcredit enterprises Erratic rainfall could mean enterprises fail Predicted landslides mean communities may need to relocate Agriculture Tree nurseries Rapid run-off is reducing soil quality Changes in rainfall mean tree pests breed faster; trees are dying. Likely to get worse Alley cropping Trees may be susceptible to tree pests, preventing them from protecting crops All sectors All projectsThe risk of flooding could lead to beneficiaries’ homes being destroyed. This may affect their involvement in the project New sector New projectPotential impacts associated with this project 212