Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World by Bubu Pateh Jallow, Vice Chair of the IPCC Science Working Group Lead Author, Coordinating Lead Author and Review Editor of IPCC Reports Chair of the LDC Expert Group Launching the 2007 Human Development Report Banjul, March 2008

Content of the Presentation Greenhouse emissions and Concentrations Observed Climate Change Projected Climate Change Climate Change Impacts with particular reference to Africa and The Gambia Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with particular reference to Africa and The Gambia Adapting to Climate Change with particular reference to Africa and The Gambia Mechanisms for Political and international cooperation in the a divided world Recommendations for Future Action

Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries 39 (65% of World Population) of the 173 Countries are responsible for 80% of the global emissions

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in The Gambia A total of 181 Gg of Carbon Dioxide were emitted into the atmosphere while about 50,000 Gg were removed from the atmosphere by various socio-economic activities conducted in The Gambia in 1993. Base in the Global Warming Potential Index this translates to a total uptake of about 45 Million Tons of CO2 Equivalent With a population of 1,025,867, the per capita uptake is 44.2 Tons CO2 Equivalents/capita.

Global-average radiative forcing estimates and ranges

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change Gobal mean temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere Snow cover

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1990, 1995, 1997, 1998,1999, 2000, 2001, 1002, 2003, 2004, 2005,2006 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Period Rate Years /decade

Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Surface warming following a sustained doubling of CO2 concentrations Best estimate 3°C; likely 2-4.5°C; very unlikely less than 1.5°C; higher values not ruled out

Projections of Future Changes in Climate Projected warming expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

Projections of Future Changes in Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

Drought is increasing in most places Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand (evaporation) with warming The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.

Projected Changes in Climate in The Gambia On the average, by 2075, mean temperature of The Gambia is estimated to increase by 3oC to 4.5oC depending on the GCM used. By 2100, rainfall in The Gambia is expected to vary from -59% to +29%. Little change is estimated in solar radiation (-5% to + 6%) by 2100.

WHAT DOES THIS SCIENCE PROJECT ION MEAN FOR AFRICA AND THE GAMBIA What are the potential IMPACTS of the Climate Changes Are we ready for the Challenges posed by the IMPACTS

Agricultural production and food security By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa could increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares). Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most affected. It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara Africa will likely experience agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of the GDP In The Gambia Grain Production will decrease while Groundnut Production will increase (Be Cautioned) Productivity of The River Gambia will increase in the short term but will decrease in the long term Rangeland productivity will decrease in The Gambia and hence livestock will be affected.

Already Bad Situation of Water Resources will be exacerbated The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million people by 2020 and 350-600 million people by the 2050. A 3°C temperature increase could lead to 0.4 – 1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress. Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in Groundwater availability particularly in the UPPER AQUIFER from which most of the water supply for The Gambia is withdrawn Reduced rainfall will lead to reduced freshwater availability in the River Gambia and so more saline intrusion into the River

Inundation and Erosion of low-lying lands will be exacerbated by climate variability and change, impacting severely on coastal settlements Projected sea level rise would increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa; Sea level rise will likely increase the high socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities. Sea Level Rise of one metre will inundate the Capital City (Banjul) of The Gambia The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively impact Human health in Africa A 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution is projected, with little increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease by 2100. It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional 80 million people will likely be at risk of malaria.

WE MUST FACE THE CHALLENGE In two ways Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations into the Atmosphere Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases On mitigation, the GHDR calls on developed countries to demonstrate leadership by cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050 and Developing countries cut emissions by 20% of 1990 levels by 2050. The report advocates a mix of carbon taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade programmes, energy regulation, and international cooperation on financing for low-carbon technology transfer.

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute to Mitigation of Emissions

Mitigation of GHG Emissions in The Gambia Rural electrification using solar generators; Greenhouse Gas Abatement using Improved Cooking Stoves to reduce fuelwood consumption: Project proposal of US $ 20 Million over a 20 year horizon to serve 25,000 households nationwide Reducing CO2 emissions from organic waste combustion through composting: Project Proposal of US $ 1.4 Million covering a period of 15 year horizon

Mitigation of GHG emissions in The Gambia Fuel Switching through Replacement of fuelwood by liquefied petroleum gas: Project Proposal at a cost of US $ 3.9 Million to increase Penetration of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) over a period of 30 years and covering 18,000 households Carbon sequestration through forest management: A Project Proposal at a cost of US $ 2.6 Million on Reforestation and popularisation of community forestry for a 7 year horizon and to cover 7,400 hectares.

Policies are available to governments to realise mitigation of climate change Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation Integrating climate policies in broader development policies Regulations and standards Taxes and charges Tradable permits Financial incentives Voluntary agreements Information instruments Research and development

Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

What are Ranges of Adaptation Measures Africa has developed several copings strategies to adapt to current climate variability but these will be inadequate to adapt to climate change; A range of factors including wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and various psychological factors and management capabilities determine the adaptive capacity of a nation or continent. Africa is very poor in most of these factors; HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

What are Ranges of Adaptation Measures Emerging range of livelihood adaptation practices being observed in parts of Africa include: Diversification of livelihood activities, Institutional architecture; Adjustments in farming operations; Income-generation projects; Migration to earn an income and make remittance; and The move towards off- or non-farm livelihood incomes.

Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa Rehabilitation of natural coastal buffers such as mangroves and coral reefs and provision of alternate livelihood options to relieve the root causes of destruction of coastal buffers. Improve risk and disaster management capacity Increase institutional capacity to implement integrated coastal zone management, including climate change effects on productive coastal systems, in particular in the water, fisheries and coastal agriculture sectors.

Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa Implementation of measures at community level Water harvesting techniques Introduction of drought resistant varieties of local crops Facilitation of food banks Promotion of irrigation Implementation of demonstration projects to improve capacity and awareness for sustainable water management including: Run-off dikes to capture rainfall Promotion of water efficient technologies Introduction and dissemination of ‘drip irrigation’ techniques

Specific Adaptation Measures for The Gambia Focus Options (s) Agriculture Diversification and Intensification of Agricultural Production, Processing, and Marketing (US $ 3.71 Million) Improved livestock and rangeland management for food security and environmental sustainability (US $ 2.8 Million) Coastal Zone Restoration/Protection of coastal environments (US $ 2.3 Million) Fisheries Improving productivity and safety in artisanal fishing operations (US $ 300,000) Forestry Expansion of Community Participation in the Management of Forests and Protected Areas (US $ 4.23 Million) Expansion and Intensification of Agro-forestry and Re-forestation Activities (US $ 8.15 Million) Health Reduction of disease burden related to climate change (US $ 1.217 Million) Water Resources Rehabilitation of Early Warning Systems on Climate Related Natural Hazards (US $ 450,000) Improvement of Fresh Water Availability (US $ 1.1 Million)

Recommendations based on the GHDR Develop a multilateral framework for avoiding dangerous climate change under the post-2012 Kyoto Protocol and Strengthen the framework for international cooperation Stronger Political Will and International Cooperation

Stronger Political Will and International Cooperation At COP 13 in Bali, a comprehensive process was launched to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome. The agreed outcome will address (a) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, (b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change;

Stronger Political Will and International Cooperation (c) Enhanced action on adaptation, including, international cooperation to support urgent implementation of adaptation actions, risk management and risk reduction strategies, disaster reduction strategies , economic diversification to build resilience; and ways to strengthen the catalytic role of the Convention. (d) Enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation, (e) Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation,

Recommendations based on the GHDR Put in place policies for sustainable carbon budgeting—the agenda for mitigation Put climate change adaptation at the centre of the post-2012 Kyoto framework and international partnerships for poverty reduction Review of The Kyoto Protocol and Enhance Contribution of Carbon Markets

Review of The Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP 3 also Agreed that the second review of the Kyoto Protocol shall aim to further enhance the implementation of the Protocol and further elaborate upon a number of its elements, in particular adaptation; The Second Review shall attempt to address the issues of (a) Extending the share of proceeds to assist in meeting the costs of adaptation to joint implementation and emissions trading; (b) The scope, effectiveness and functioning of the flexibility mechanisms, including ways and means to enhance an equitable regional distribution of CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM projects; (c) The minimization of adverse effects of climate change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental and economic impacts on other Parties

The Carbon Market has the Potential In negotiations on a successor pact to the Kyoto Protocol that will assist in the avoidance of dangerous climate change, efforts must be directed to Mobilizing Finance for the Climate Challenge; Predictable carbon pricing is needed to direct world investment flows toward an economy that could minimize climate change, Sufficiently high and long-term predictable price for carbon will be central for mobilizing capital for the new economy,

The Carbon Market has the Potential As regards to financing to meet the challenges of global warming, the Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto Protocol must urgently and quickly become operational to ‘climate proof’ vulnerable economies, the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol, which has the potential to generate up to $100 billion of investment flowing from North to South into clean and green energy projects, needed to be supplemented by significant contributions from industrialized countries. Developing countries need all the financial and technical assistance in order to make the transition to lower carbon economies

Recommendations based on the GHDR The Human Development Report argues for reforms including: Additional financing for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience, Northern governments should allocate at least $86 billion annually by 2015 (0.2% of projected GDP). Increased international support for the development of sub-Saharan Africa’s capacity to monitor climate and improve public access to meteorological information. The integration/mainstreaming of adaptation planning into wider plans, programmes and strategies for reducing poverty and extreme inequalities, including PRSPs.

Conclusions and Recommendations of GHDR The UNDP Global Human Development Report: Fighting climate change concludes that “one of the hardest lessons taught by climate change is that the historically carbon intensive growth, and the profligate consumption in rich nations that has accompanied it, is ecologically unsustainable.” But the Report further argues, “with the right reforms, it is not too late to cut greenhouse gas emissions to sustainable levels without sacrificing economic growth: rising prosperity and climate security are not conflicting objectives.”

Ban Ki Moon – UN Secretary General “we know enough to act; if we do not act now the impact of climate change will be devastating; we have affordable measures and technologies to begin addressing the problem right now; but what we do not have is time”.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, The GHDR has made it clear that under Climate Change We are a divided world Bounded by Common but differentiated Responsibility But as Arnold told the Heads of States and Governments at the UN General Assembly: “rich nations and poor nations have common but different responsibilities, but one responsibility that all nations have now is action”.

HENCE THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW

THANK YOU