1 Priming the Talent Pipeline: Oregon Future Workforce Needs Analysis Interim Findings and Draft Recommendations December 2007

2 Overview of Project Methodology General Approach ● Inform understanding Oregon’s future workforce needs by building upon Oregon’s cluster-based initiatives driven by industry employment analysis and augment with an understanding of technology competencies found within and across Oregon’s industry base Assessment of Oregon Industry Core Competencies Guidance from Oregon Cluster Organizations Identify Workforce Needs Map to state occup forecast & industry & trade association reports Alignment with Educ & Trng Resources Analysis of Gaps Addressing Gaps

3 Starting Point: How to Identify Drivers of Oregon’s Economic Future ● To consider the likely future drivers of Oregon’s economic growth and workforce demand, this study breaks new ground in integrating two perspectives: Traded Industry Sector Analysis using industry employment data that reflect an understanding of “where the Oregon’s economy has been”: –Important to focus on those industries that serve export- oriented or “traded” markets and bring new wealth to the state’s economy as opposed to only serving local needs –Consider broader clusters of industries that share inter- related activities – often linked by serving common markets or through supply-chain relationships Industry Technology Competency Analysis to look more closely at a state’s comparative industry advantages from a technology perspective to learn where “you have the know-how to grow”: –Hamel and Prahalad in “Competing for the Future,” define a competency as “a bundle of skills and technologies.” From a state workforce and economic development perspective, core competencies represent a “ critical mass” of know-how. –It is from industry technology competencies that gaining a position in emerging technologies can best be realized. Intersection of Industry Employment Strengths and Industry Technology Competencies Leads to Identifying Technology & Market Platforms

4 A Closer Look at Industry Market Specializations Found within the Oregon Traded Industry Sectors ● More detailed analysis of Oregon’s industry base suggests specific “markets” where Oregon stands out – based on degree of industry employment specialization ● Oregon highly specialized in 27 industry markets representing 9 out of the 12 traded industry sectors ● No highly specialized industries found within Business Services; Logistics & Distribution; or Medical Products Traded Industry SectorIndustry Market Specializations Agricultural Products ● Fresh Fruit, Juice & Vegetables ● Wineries ● Nurseries Apparel & Sporting Goods ● Footwear Communications Equipment ● Computer Peripherals Electronics & Advanced Materials ● Semiconductors & Related Devices ● Measuring & Testing Equipment ● Printed Circuit Assembly ● Semiconductor Machinery Information Technology ● Software Publishing ● Computer Facilities Mgt Services ● Telemarketing Services Metals ● Steel Foundaries ● Fabricated Metal Products ● Saw Blade & Handsaw Processed Food and Beverages ● Frozen Fruit and Vegetables ● Canned Fruit and Vegetable Transportation Equipment & Parts ● Heavy Truck Manufacturing ● Travel Trailer & Campers Wood & Other Forest Products ● Sawmills, Logging and Lumber ● Softwood and Hardwood Veneer & Plywood ● Wood Windows & Doors ● Manufactured & Mobile Homes ● Reconstituted Wood Products ● Forest Support Activities Source: Battelle analysis of BLS, QCEW employment data.

5 Oregon’s Current Position in Major Occupational Groupings Under Consideration, 2006 Oregon Position Across Major Occupation Groups, 2006 Major Occupational Group Oregon Employment, 2006 Relative Concentration Compared to National Average (1.00=Nat’l Avg.) Oregon % Change, U.S. % Change, Computer-related36, %18.4% Engineers18, %24.2% Eng. Technicians10, %7.7% Production132, %-4.3% Discussion of Oregon’s “Mega-Level” Occupational Trends: A specialized and growing engineering technician workforce in Oregon A production workforce that is far outpacing the U.S. in recent growth A computer specialist workforce that is keeping pace with the U.S. An engineering workforce that is growing well below the U.S. average Source: Battelle analysis of Oregon Employment Dept. Occupational Employment Data, 2002 & 2006.

6 Detailed Occupational Composition: Oregon’s Computer-related & Engineering Workforce Computer-related Occupations Oregon Specializations: Computer Support (LQ is 1.16) Computer Specialists, All Other (LQ is 2.18) Projected High Demand* Occupations (Total Openings ): Computer Support Specialists (2,181) Computer Software Engineers, Applications (1,675) Network & Computer Systems Admin. (1,405) Computer Programmers (1,322) Computer Specialists, All Other (1,262) Engineering Occupations Oregon Specializations: Computer Hardware (LQ is 3.27) Electronics (LQ is 1.20) Materials (LQ is 1.48) Projected High Demand Occupations (Total Openings ): Mechanical (1,108) Civil (985) Industrial (776) Electronics (610) Computer Hardware (535) *High demand occupations are those with the greatest number of projected job openings overall, (both growth and replacement openings). Note: only those engineering occupations with >500 jobs are shown in the pie chart.

7 Oregon Workforce Position in Wood and Forest Products ● Specialized occupations today in Wood Products ● Identified Oregon Workforce Issues –Serious problems in hiring rural logging workers due to extensive drug use among applicants (lack of drug-free applicants) –Workforce gaps in basic job skills (read, follow directions, perform simple computer/computational skills) –Forestry programs at high schools, community colleges have been cut; companies now rely on on-the-job training—significant “PR” work necessary to bring worker pipeline back online (OFRI is heavily engaged in this effort) –Pipeline challenges heightened by an existing workforce that is aging Forest and Conservation Workers Logging Equipment Operators Logging Workers, All Other Industrial Machinery Mechanics Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Production Workers, All Other Machine Feeders and Offbearers

8 New Job Growth in Oregon is Projected to be Strongest in Computer-Related Occupations, with Steady Growth in Engineers, Technicians and Production Workers Source: Oregon Employment Department, Occupational Projections

9 But Job Demand Also Reflects Need for Replacement Workers … Much Larger than New Job Growth Across Occupational Groups ● Across major occupational groups, the Oregon Employment Dept. projects that future job openings will largely be due to needs for replacement workers ; highlights the demographic challenges facing production workers in particular ● Though not expected to grow the fastest, Production occupations will require the most workers annually with the vast majority as replacements Projected Annual Job Openings for Oregon by Major Occupational Groups, Forecast Major Occupational Group Projected Annual Growth Openings Projected Annual Replacement Openings Total Annual Openings Production7803,2934,073 Computer-related ,066 Engineers Eng. Technicians Source: Oregon Employment Department, Occupational Projections