Formulate Alternatives

Accomplishments n Put together a team n Established a shared vision of the status quo n Identified problems n Defined planning objectives n Defined measures of performance n Delineated constraints

Next We Formulate Alternatives to the Status Quo

Alternative Formulation is an Iterative Process Alternative Formulation Brain Storming Planning Objectives Performance Measures Screening Resisting Point Designs Gaining New Perspectives Considering the Improbable Relaxing Constraints Alternative: A combination of measures that change the way water is managed.

The Balancing Act of Alternative Formulation Many AlternativesFew Alternatives Selection Process Time Cost

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo Potential Alternatives - SupplyStrategicTactical Increased Reservoir Capacity New Source Construction Basin Interties Reallocation of Supplies Emergency Pumping

Potential Alternatives - Operational Strategies StrategicTactical Conjunctive Use Strategies Reservoir Operating Strategy Changes Water Reuse Changes In Triggering Mechanisms Water Quality Management Strategies Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Potential Alternatives - Demand Modification StrategicTactical Water Use Curtailments Public Information Campaigns Water Pricing Conservation Retrofits Conservation Credits Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Potential Alternatives - RegulatoryStrategicTactical Instream Flow Requirements Water Quality Regulations Water Rights Transfers Water Banking Water Marketing Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Alternative Formulation is a “Systems Process” That Proceeds From the General to the Detailed n Alternatives should initially be presented as general concepts n Estimates of impacts on planning objectives should be made n Infeasible alternatives should be discarded n Inferior alternatives should be identified n Promising alternatives should be analyzed in greater detail

Alternative Formulation Requires n Creative thinking n Collaborative effort n Compromise n Vision What is the best alternative you have developed to a difficult problem?

What is Brainstorming? An effective process for initial generation of alternatives n Encourages participants to freely offer suggestions n Forbids premature criticism and analysis n Requires participation of experts, managers and stakeholders n Improves response via collective thought n Forces the examination of a wide variety of ideas n Helps assure that no options are overlooked

Shared Vision Models are Valuable Tools in Alternative Formulation n Performance measures allow managers and stakeholders to envision the impacts of proposed actions n Simple representations of alternatives can be developed to determine general trade-offs and evaluate system behavior

Shared Vision Models are Valuable Tools in Alternative Formulation n More detailed models can be used to perform detailed analysis at the design level n Model use enhances understanding of system sensitivities and promotes conceptualization of new alternatives n Alternatives can be fine-tuned through sensitivity analysis

Generating Alternatives Requires Creativity* n An attitude that allows you to search for ideas and manipulate your knowledge and experience n Trying various approaches n Using impractical (* von Oech 1990)

Obstacles to Creative Thinking Whack’s Ten Mental Locks 1. “THE” right answer6. That is not my area 2. That is not logical7. Avoid ambiguity 3. Follow the rules8. Don’t be foolish 4. Be practical9. To err is wrong 5. Play is frivolous 10. I’m not creative

Adopt an Appropriate Attitude n Make a commitment to generate multiple strategies n Adopt a questioning attitude n Don’t be afraid to fail

Create the Proper Environment n Advocate collaborative thought n Eliminate distractions n Provide support to bring ideas into action

Take Action n Solicit input from different perspectives n Ask “What If?” n Examine the value of existing constraints n Delay criticism

Alternative Evaluation and Refinement The Formulation Process: n Fine-tunes alternatives n Defines components completely n Uses different evaluation criteria in different stages

A Phased Assessment of Impacts Preliminary Screening Criteria n Completeness: all the required plan elements are specified n Acceptability: decision criteria and planning constraints are satisfied

A Phased Assessment of Impacts Intermediate Screening Criteria n Effectiveness: planning objectives are addressed Detailed Assessment n Efficiency: a high ratio of plan outputs to plan inputs

Activities in Detailed Evaluation n Risk assessment n Economic analysis (NED, RED, Incremental Cost) n EQ and OSE account quantification

Activities in Alternative Refinement Alternative Refinement is a process of: n Specification - defining the details n Optimization - enhanced by the understanding of system sensitivity

Summary n Alternative formulation is an iterative cycle of generating, screening, and refining alternatives that proceeds at increasing levels of detail. n Creative thinking promotes the identification of effective and innovative solutions to planning problems. n Planning Objectives, Metrics and Accounts are used to assess the completeness, acceptability, effectiveness, and efficiency of a proposed plan.

Exercise