1. Problem Solving

2. Objectives Learn how to state and clarify a problem
Develop a procedure for problem solving
Learn the traps
in problem solving

3. What’s typical? WRONG! Self-Doubt Over Confidence Procrastination
Flip-flops
Desperation!
WRONG!

4. Six Criteria for Effective Decisions
Focuses on what is important
Logical and consistent
Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking
Does not gather too much information
Tries to reach consensus
Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

5. P O A C T Problem Solving Model roblem bjectives lternatives
onsequences
radeoffs

8. Additional Factors
Risk
Uncertainty
Linked decisions

9. Problem Solving Steps State the problem carefully
Acknowledge complexities
Avoid assumptions and prejudices
Specify the objectives
Create imaginative alternatives
Understand the consequences of the alternative
Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t

10. Problem Solving Steps, con’t
Clarify uncertainties
Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of each alternative
Consider linked decisions
Each alternative opens or closes future options

11. THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS Define the Starting Issue(s)
STAGE ONE
Define the Starting Issue(s)
Understand the Issues
Define the Problem
Analyze the Situation
Objectives:
1. To analyze the facts.
2. To define the problem

12. THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
STAGE TWO
Generate Ideas
Find Solutions
Make Decisions
Evaluate Ideas
Objectives:
1. To generate ideas.
2. To evaluate ideas.
3. To decide on the best possible solution

13. THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS Plan the Follow-through
STAGE THREE
Plan Your Action
Analyze the Impact
Plan Your Action
Plan the Follow-through
Objectives:
1. To determine the impact on people and systems.
2. To build on action plan.
3. To decide on follow-through.

14. What’s the best solution?
A good solution
to a well-posed
problem….
Is a
almost
always
a smarter
choice
than..
An excellent
solution to a
poorly posed
problem

15. Define the Problem What triggers the problem? State the problem
Question the constraints of the problem
statement
Identify the essential elements
How does this impact other decisions?
What is the scope of the problem?
Gain insights from others
Restate problem, if necessary

16. What Objectives Do Help determine what information to seek
Explain your choices to others
Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem

17. How to identify objectives
Write down the concerns you hope to address:
Wish list
Worst possible outcome
Impact on others
Insights from others
What’s a good alternative but unfeasible?
What is bad about the worst alternatives?

18. How to identify objectives
Convert the concerns into succinct objectives
Separate the ends from the means
Clarify what you mean by each objective
Test your objectives

19. Alternatives Use your objects and ask HOW?
Challenge constraints to your alternatives
Set high aspirations
Think through your alternatives before consulting others
Learn from past experience
Then ask others for suggestions

20. How to generate alternatives
Brainstorming
Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate
Never stop looking for alternatives
Look for win-win alternatives
Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives
One solution would satisfy you
But still have a range of alternatives

21. Consequences List the consequences of each alternative
Assess the future consequences of each alternative
Create a free-form description of the consequences
Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table …….

22. Consequences Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences
Use qualitative and quantitative data
Use experts if necessary
Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision

23. Tradeoffs Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others
Then swaps between alternatives using measures
Value incremental improvements
Make consistent tradeoffs

24. Uncertainties What are the key uncertainties?
What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties?
What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties?
What are the consequences of each outcome?….

25. Uncertainties Identify the key uncertainties
Define the possible outcomes
Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome
Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures
Create a decision tree

26. Risk Tolerance How much risk do you want to handle?
How much are others affected by your decision?
Quantify the risks, if possible
Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism
Don’t avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex

27. How to lessen risk Seek risk reducing information Diversify the risk
Hedge the risk
Insure against the risk

28. Linked decisions Choose options that leave future flexibility intact
Get timing right on decision tree
Describe the consequences at the end points

29. Psychological Traps Working on the wrong problem
Failing to identify key objectives
Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives
Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives
Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs
Disregarding uncertainty…….

30. Traps, con’t Failing to account for risk intolerance
Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time...
So, tell me some specifics on these traps...

31. Common Traps Anchoring trap Overconfidence Trap Status Quo Trap
Sunk Cost Trap
Confirming Evidence Trap
Framing Trap
Overconfidence Trap
Recallability Trap
Base Rate Trap
Prudence Trap
Random Events

32. Review A model for problem solving The actions in each of the steps
Common Traps in problem solving

35. THANK YOU!