Factors Affecting the Louisiana Economic Outlook, National and State Factors (including the Oil Spill) presented to Louisiana Industrial Development Executives Association Jim Richardson Louisiana State University October 28, 2010

National and Global Projected Economic Conditions Economic Conditions Gross Domestic Product 2.6%2.4%2.5% Inflation Rate1.5%1.9%2.3% 30-Year Fixed Interest Rate 4.9%5.6%6.0% Oil Price Per Barrel$75$80 to $90 Natural Gas Price per thousand cubic feet $4.83$4.50 to $6.00

Policy Environment in which Projections are being Made Current tradeoff

National Risks and Uncertainties Health Care Reform – Benefits (pre-existing conditions, retirees between age of 55 and 64, children up to age 26, preventive care with no copay) – Mandates (must purchase insurance if in affordability category) – Planned reductions in Medicare – Taxes, pricing decisions, and health care exchanges – Significance of Secretary of Health and Human Services – Changes being phased in from 2010 to 2018 Energy Policy – EPA and its rulings – Cap and Trade Bill in Congress Extension of Tax Cuts – 2001 and 2003 tax cuts – Marginal tax rates, dividends and capital gains, estate tax, AMT, Marriage Penalty Overall Status of Economy—both national and global Long term concerns about federal indebtedness—gets to entitlements

OIL SPILL AND MORATORIUM/OFFSHORE REGULATIONS Risks and Uncertainties Specifically Related to Louisiana but can spread to rest of country

Sectors Affected by Spill and Policy Reactions

Gulf Commercial Fisheries 10/28/20107

Size of Sector LA Commercial fishing licenses: 11, dockside value of $275 million – Estimated total annual output of $660 million – Estimated total state tax revenue of $12 million – Estimated total local sales tax revenues of <$10 million Coastal Parishes 15 coastal parishes: 7,959 – With >$10,000 annual catch: 2,657 May 2010 trip ticket data – Crab: 14% drop – Menhaden: 82% drop – Oysters:43% drop – Shrimp: 49% drop Oyster beds hit hardest Long term effects? 10/28/20108 Louisiana Commercial Fishing

Estimates of Oil Along Gulf Coast Tourism Impact 10/28/20109 Source: New York Times/NOAA

Louisiana Tourism 10/28/ Composition of Direct 2008 LA Travel &Tourism Value Added by Sector * Millions 2008$ Source: 2008 Tourism Satellite Account.

Size of Sector 2008 total employment: 144, direct spending: $9.5 billion – Total annual output of $15.6 billion – Total state tax revenue of $864 million – Total local sales tax revenues of $330 million Coastal Parishes 15 coastal parishes: 36,664 Saltwater Fishing—about 500,000 persons per year $408 million in annual spending for outdoor tourism in coastal parishes Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries openings pending 10/28/ Louisiana Tourism

Oil and Gas Activities 1.Moratorium on Deepwater Drilling for six months as imposed by U.S. Department of Interior—now lifted but must look over regulations 2.Environmental and Safety Rules as Provided by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement 1.BOEMRE—remove 650 platforms and plug 3,500 wells 2.Drilling Safety Rules—proper cementing and casing practices; appropriate use of drilling fluids, independent review of well design, construction, blowout preventer--- reviews signed by Chief Executive Officer subject to criminal penalties 3.Workplace safety rules 4.Other rules in the offing. 3.Overall energy policy

Employment Growth By Region 2000 to 2008

Estimated BP Payments of $1.6 billion for Claims October 2010

Cleanup and Remediation 10/28/ $9.5 billion reported cost to date – Peak resources: 46,000 people, 7,040 vessels and 121 aircraft – Current resources: 25,200 people, 2,600 vessels and dozens of aircraft

10/28/ Cleanup and Remediation

LA Net Effect of Oil Spill? Disruption in LA Economy Industries Affected: – Commercial Marine Fisheries annual dockside value: $275 million – Outdoor tourism in coastal parishes annual spending: $408 million Boost to LA Economy LA Claims to date: $527 million LA spending on clean-up and remediation: $9.5 billion 10/28/201019

State Economic Projections

Economic Growth Projections Louisiana, Metros and Rural

Factors Affecting the Louisiana Economic Outlook, National and State Factors (including the Oil Spill) presented to Louisiana Industrial Development Executives Association Jim Richardson Louisiana State University October 28, 2010