Cost-Benefit Analysis Study Alvin Mares, PhD Assistant Professor, College of Social Work The Ohio State University / November 19, 2014

Methodological Questions Raised, Decisions Made 1.Benefits to whom? Over what time period? Ohio taxpayers; 10-yrs ( ) 2.Size of improvement in outcomes expected? Half-way between foster youth & general popn 3.What benefits to include? Education, parenthood & incarceration 4.What costs to include? Housing, case mgnt, admin review, extended adoption assist; with & w/o support svcs 5.What types of youth/supportive services? “Accelerated” college; “emerging” employment training; “struggling” parenting; “troubled & troubling” diversion/intensive tx

Estimated Benefit for Education DiplomaAge Mean Foster youth63%77%75.6%80.1%77.6% General popn90.6%89.2%92.7%93.9%91.9% Difference between group means:14.3% Expected “half-way” improvement (gain):7.15% Expected gain Higher median weekly earnings 5 yrs (260 wks) Expected no. youth entering program each yr OH tax rateTotal Diploma7.2%$ %$1,746,181 Some college1.9%$ %$704,740 AA degree3.0%$ %$468,650 BA degree9.5%$ %$3,298,250 Total benefit (over 5-yr period):$6,217,821

Estimated Benefit for Parenthood & Incarceration Expected gain (decrease) Average annual cost of raising one child No. years Expected no. female youth Total Parenthood15.5%$10, $1,390,970 Expected gain (decrease) Average daily cost of community- based diversion programs Average length of stay (days) Expected no. male youthTotal Incarceration27.8%$ $1,420,580 EducationParenthoodIncarcerationTotal $6,217,821 (69%)$1,390,970 (15%)$1,420,580 (16%)$9,029,371

Estimated “Core Program” Costs Housing$1,472 avg. foster care age 18 x 350 youth x 18 mos. avg. LOS in program $9,273,600 Case mgnt12 caseworkers x 3 yrs x $53,326 = $1,919,736 2 supervisors x 3 yrs x $67,952 = $407,712 $2,327,448 Admin review$800 per review x 350 youth x 1.5 yrs$420,000 Sub-total:$12,021,048 Extended adoption5% of Sub-total$601,052 Total cost per cohort entering program (ages 18-21/yrs 1-3):$12,622,100 Less Federal match (60%):$7,573,260 Ohio share (40%):$5,048,840 Basic assumptions: 1.Overall participation: 1,056 youth age 18 in care x 33% enrollment = 350 youth/yr entering program 2.Average length of stay after entering program = 18 mos. 3.Distribution of youth sub-groups same as reported in Midwest Outcomes Study (accelerated = 36%; emerging = 21%; struggling parents = 25%; troubled & troubling = 18%)

Estimated “Beyond IV-E” Supportive Services Costs Accelerated youth“Community college bundle”: mean cost of attend 2-yr public college AA program ($9,302 COA x 2 yrs x 126 youth) $2,344,104 Emerging youth“Employment training bundle”: mean cost of attend 1-yr public certification program ($9,555 COA x 1 yr x 74 youth) $707,070 Struggling parents“Parenting bundle”: mean annual cost of raising 1 child ($10,256 x 2 yrs x 88 youth) $1,805,056 Troubled & troubling“Diversion/intensive tx bundle”: mean daily commun-based corrections facility ($80 x 365 ALOS x 63 youth) $1,839,600 Total:$6,695,830 IV-E Core Program (Ohio share) Supportive Svcs (ODJFS, OBR, ODMAS, ODRC funds)Total $5,048,840 (43%)$6,695,830 (57%)$11,744,670

Projected Annual Cost-Benefit Analysis: Core Program

Projected Annual Cost-Benefit Analysis: Core Program Notes: Yr-1: One-third cost of total 3-yr cost for single emancipating cohort (ie, emancipating class of 2015) Yr-2: One-third 3-yr cost for two emancipating cohorts (ie, classes of 2015 and 2016) Yr-3: Final one-third 3-yr cost for 2015 class + second one-third 3-yr cost for 2016 class + first one-third 3-yr cost for 2017 class Yr-4 and beyond: Same cost as Yr-3 as one new emancipating class cohort enters while another "ages out" of the extended care program by turning 21 Yr-4: One-fifth of total 5-yr benefit for single emancipating cohort (ie, emancipating class of 2015 which aged-out of extended care in 2018) Yr-5: Two-fifths of total 5-yr benfit for two emancipating cohorts (ie, classes of 2015 and 2016) Yr-6: Three-fifths of total 5-yr benefit for three emancipating cohorts (ie, classes of 2015, 2016, and 2017) Yr-7: Four-fifths of total 5-yr benefit for four emancicpating cohorts (ie, classes of ) Yr-8 and beyond: Total 5-yr benefit for five emancipating cohorts (eg, classes of ) after emancipating from extended care at age 21; thereafter each year a new cohort will enter as an earlier cohort leaves/extendes beyond the projected 5-yr benefit period (ages 21-25)

Projected Annual Cost-Benefit Analysis: Core Program Important Caveats Benefits between the ages of 18 and 20 are conservatively assumed to be zero due to difficulty estimating using Midwest Outcomes Study outcomes data reported at ages 17.5, 19, 21, 23.5, and 26. Also the uncertain nature of educational attainment, parenthood, and incarceration outcomes realized during the first two years of early adulthood (i.e., between the ages of 18 and 20). Benefits will continue to accrue beyond the age of 25, but they are unable to be estimated at this time due to the Midwest Outcomes Study outcomes data only reported to the age of 26

Projected Annual Cost-Benefit Analysis: Core Program Conclusion Based on these liberal cost and conservative benefit estimates, a positive return on investment to the State of Ohio of $1.08 for every $1.00 spent will be realized beginning in year 6 of the program, and will only grow thereafter primarily through increased tax revenues associated with higher earnings achieved during adulthood (ages of 26 and 66) through increased educational attainment during early adulthood (ages 18-20)

Extended Support Cost-Benefit Studies Reviewed 1.Midwest Outcomes 2.Jim Casey Youth Opportunities Initiative 3.Washington State 4.California Transition Guardian Program 5.Mainspring Consulting o Pennsylvania o Hawaii o Nebraska o Connecticut

MBARGOED%20until%20May%206.pdf

Measuring-Costs-and-Benefits-in-Washington-State_Full-Report.pdf

[California Transition Guardian Program]

September 21, 2011 September 2012

March 14, 2014