1 HFC demand Lambert Kuijpers TEAP co-chair Workshop on HFC Management Paris, 11 July 2014.

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1 HFC demand Lambert Kuijpers TEAP co-chair Workshop on HFC Management Paris, 11 July 2014

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 2 HFCs HFCs are one of the main chemical candidates considered when converting away from ODS (next to non-fluorocarbons) Markets have now further developed in both Non-Article 5 and Article 5 countries, leading to considerable increases in the demand for HFCs Regulations are being considered (Japan and USA, others); EU F-gas regulation 517/2014 already adopted in April 2014

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 3 Source for HCFC - HFC demand data HCFC demand (= consumption) data are reported by all Parties under the Montreal Protocol HFC demand data are not reported Emissions of HFCs are reported to the UNFCCC, there is no reporting requirement for production or demand (consumption); the emissions reporting is far from complete AGAGE = emissions derived from atmospheric abundances Annex 1 = reporting by Annex 1 countries Unreported = difference between emissions from AGAGE measurements and reporting Source: Rigby et al., 2014, Recent and future trends etc., GRL, 41,

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 4 Reporting of emissions (Rigby et al.)

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 5 HFC demand data HFC demand data for this presentation have been derived from bottom-up calculations This method was already applied for deriving data as published in several TEAP TOC and Task Force reports; a first overview of HFC demand data to be found in the 2005 IPCC/TEAP report

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 6 HFC demand data (2) HFC demand data mainly concern HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-143a, HFC-32 *; they are used in several sectors, the largest demand occurs in the R/AC sector HFCs such as HFC-245fa, HFC-365mfc (used for foam blowing), HFC-227ea (used in inhalers and fire protection) and HFC-236fa are considered as “other HFCs”

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 7 HCFC demand in tonnes

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 8 Specific HFC demand (tonnes, NA5)

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 9 Specific HFC demand (tonnes, A5)

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 10 HFC demand in tonnes

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 11 HFC annual increase in demand Demand for HFCs has grown by 10-12% per year in Non-Article 5 countries over the period , thereafter growth is estimated at 1-3% per year ( ) Demand for HFCs has grown by up to about 30% per year in Article 5 countries over the period , less than 20% per year in the years thereafter

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 12 HCFC and HFC demand in tonnes

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 13 HCFC and HFC demand in t CO 2 -eq.

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 14 HFC production capacities The main production capacity for HFCs is now installed in China ktonnes production capacity (for various HFCs) is installed in Non-Article 5 countries Current production capacity for HFC-134a, -125 and -32 is estimated at about 750,000 tonnes total Current production capacity for all other HFCs is estimated at a level of < 150,000 tonnes total

H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p, J u l y , P a r i s 15 Concluding remarks Non-Article 5 country demand for HFCs has significantly increased during the period (total demand for HCFCs plus HFCs remained roughly constant) In Article 5 countries, HCFC and HFC demand increased until 2013; in particular the HFC demand has increased significantly during (>30% annually) and is expected to rise further (<20% annually) Bottom-up estimates and producer estimates for HFC demand differ by about 30%; is it possible to derive more reliable estimates for the HFC demand in Non Article 5 and Article 5 countries ?