GCM based high resolution spatial temporal precipitation scenarios for western Canada CCAF Funding through 03/2005

Investigators Dr. James Byrne, University of Lethbridge Dr. James Byrne, University of Lethbridge Dr. Dan Johnson, AAFC Research Centre Dr. Dan Johnson, AAFC Research Centre Dr. Alain Pietroniro, P.Eng., NHRC Dr. Alain Pietroniro, P.Eng., NHRC Suzan Lapp, University of Lethbridge Suzan Lapp, University of Lethbridge Nicole Rabe, University of Lethbridge Nicole Rabe, University of Lethbridge Nicole McKechnie, University of Lethbridge Nicole McKechnie, University of Lethbridge

Background Global warming 1.4 to 5.8 C in this century Global warming 1.4 to 5.8 C in this century Warming most pronounced in winter (IPCC, 2001). Warming most pronounced in winter (IPCC, 2001). Alberta - Ralph Klein Alberta - Ralph Klein

What is wrong with the weather?

Introduction Surface water supplies = f (winter precip) Surface water supplies = f (winter precip) How will alpine winter precip change under climate warming????? How will alpine winter precip change under climate warming?????

Problem?? Snow-runoff ratios >> rainfall-runoff ratios Snow-runoff ratios >> rainfall-runoff ratios –Shorter warmer winter = less snow, more rain –Result = declining water supplies??

Research Focus Fall, winter, spring precip is a function of Synoptic circulation Fall, winter, spring precip is a function of Synoptic circulation Local historical precipitation statistics may be closely related to synoptic pattern statistics Local historical precipitation statistics may be closely related to synoptic pattern statistics

Objectives Apply synoptic downscaling techniques to develop and evaluate western Canadian precipitation scenarios based on a number of GCMs Apply synoptic downscaling techniques to develop and evaluate western Canadian precipitation scenarios based on a number of GCMs Scenarios will be defined for all climate stations with meaningful (30 years) of climate data Scenarios will be defined for all climate stations with meaningful (30 years) of climate data Produce scenario databases for application by the global warming vulnerability, impacts and adaptation research community Produce scenario databases for application by the global warming vulnerability, impacts and adaptation research community

Building on Lapp et al 2002; in review; Byrne et al, Daily vs seasonal synoptic analysis Daily vs seasonal synoptic analysis Synoptic Synoptic –Persistence –Efficacy relative to precipitation

Synoptic downscaling DRSWS SWC SWT NWMNWW NWZ Synoptic Downscaling Changnon et al (1993)

Hydromet Model Simulates daily T, Td, Rad, Precip for any size grid over basin (used 100x100 metres)

1xCO 2 2xCO 2 How will winter runoff alter water quality?

Oldman Basin spring snow water equivalent declines 40% by

Historical Scenarios Database Visual Synoptic classification Visual Synoptic classification – NCEP/NCAR six hourly historical upper air data –Window is  N and  W –Grid size of 2.5 x 2.5 degrees –500 mb surfaces for Oct-March Classified according to Changnon et al. (1993). Classified according to Changnon et al. (1993).

Cutoff (SWC) Jan 17/79 100m contour interval - Blue is low / Red is high

Meridional northwest (NWM) Jan 30/65 100m contour interval - Blue is low / Red is high

Trough (SWT) Feb 13/65 100m contour interval - Blue is low / Red is high

Ridge (DR) Feb 2/81 100m contour interval - Blue is low / Red is high

GC Models - upper air data Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis’ CGCM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis’ CGCM2 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research’s HADCM3 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research’s HADCM3

Historical Precipitation Database Global Daily database which includes 4584 stations in Canada Global Daily database which includes 4584 stations in Canada Select stations for Select stations for –30+ year records –good spatial distributions NCDC Summary of the day ( ) more than stations throughout US NCDC Summary of the day ( ) more than stations throughout US

Methodology Fall, winter and spring (FWS) precipitation is synoptically driven Fall, winter and spring (FWS) precipitation is synoptically driven Analyses as published Analyses as published –Byrne et al 1999 WRR 35: –Lapp et al 2002 IJOC 22:1807–1817

Methodology Summer (S) – precipitation likely depends on spring soil water status Summer (S) – precipitation likely depends on spring soil water status –Wet spring soil = increased convective activity –Dry spring soil = decreased convective activity –Summer = mid-June to August

Deliverables Monthly and daily precipitation database for all stations with meaningful (30 years) of climate data in western Canada; Monthly and daily precipitation database for all stations with meaningful (30 years) of climate data in western Canada; Gridded monthly 50 km resolution for the prairies; Gridded monthly 50 km resolution for the prairies; High-resolution (1 km or less) daily data for regions under study with collaborators (Pietroniro, Gan, Herrington) and others. High-resolution (1 km or less) daily data for regions under study with collaborators (Pietroniro, Gan, Herrington) and others.

References Byrne, J.M., A. Berg and I. Townshend, Linking observed and GCM upper air circulation patterns to current and future snow runoff for the Rocky Mountains. Water Resources Research: 35, Byrne, J.M., A. Berg and I. Townshend, Linking observed and GCM upper air circulation patterns to current and future snow runoff for the Rocky Mountains. Water Resources Research: 35, Changnon, D., McKee, T.B. and Doesken, N.J., Annual snowpack patterns across the Rockies: long-term trends and associated 500mb synoptic patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, Changnon, D., McKee, T.B. and Doesken, N.J., Annual snowpack patterns across the Rockies: long-term trends and associated 500mb synoptic patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, Doty, BE, and J.L. Kinter III, Geophysical Data Analysis and Visualization using the Grid Analysis and Display system (GrADS). In Visualization techniques in Space and Atmospheric Sciences, Eds. E.P. Szuszczewicz and J.H. Bredekamp, Chp 3: Lower Atmosphere and Earth Science Application, pp Doty, BE, and J.L. Kinter III, Geophysical Data Analysis and Visualization using the Grid Analysis and Display system (GrADS). In Visualization techniques in Space and Atmospheric Sciences, Eds. E.P. Szuszczewicz and J.H. Bredekamp, Chp 3: Lower Atmosphere and Earth Science Application, pp IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers: a Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers: a Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lapp, S., J. Byrne, S. Kienzle and I. Townshend, Linking Global Circulation Model synoptics and precipitation for western North America. Int. J. Climatol. 22: 1807–1817. Lapp, S., J. Byrne, S. Kienzle and I. Townshend, Linking Global Circulation Model synoptics and precipitation for western North America. Int. J. Climatol. 22: 1807–1817. Lapp, Suzan, James Byrne, Ivan Townshend and Stefan Kienzle. Climate Warming Impacts on Snowpack Accumulation in an Alpine Watershed: A GIS Based Modeling Approach. Int. J. Climatol., under review. Lapp, Suzan, James Byrne, Ivan Townshend and Stefan Kienzle. Climate Warming Impacts on Snowpack Accumulation in an Alpine Watershed: A GIS Based Modeling Approach. Int. J. Climatol., under review.